The Silk Risk Dashboard
2026-05-02 04:22 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Market Situation
Interest Rates
↗
short-end rally reflects rate-cut expectations while long end reprices term premium upward
Financial
→
broad rally at statistical extremes, AMD and ALB most extended; NVDA showing 5d weakness diverging from 30d trend
Commodity
→
bifurcated commodity complex with battery metals surging while energy weakens
Currency
↗
broad USD weakness, particularly against JPY; CNY strengthening trend intact with -59 momentum score
Crypto
↗
steady uptrend without extreme sigma readings, tracking risk-on equity sentiment
Signals
2
Critical
3
Alert
3
Watch
Click row for details
| Asset | Price | Z-Score | Window | Level | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALB | $215.62 | +3.79σ | 60d | critical | SHORT |
| AMD | $360.54 | +3.68σ | 252d | critical | SHORT |
| ^IRX | $3.58 | -2.27σ | 30d | alert | SHORT |
| PDBC | $17.35 | +2.24σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| IWM | $279.28 | +2.16σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| TSM | $397.67 | +1.99σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| CNY=X | $6.83 | -1.68σ | 252d | watch | SHORT |
| NVDA | $198.45 | +1.61σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
Risk & Metrics
Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.29 | 3m -0.32 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.3% | 3m 28.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -13.7% | Max -26.5%
ENB
6.35 (assets: 19)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 33% | High-Vol 17% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Performance Scorecard
Core Forecast
Backtest (1042d):541/1358, 40% [37%-42%], +374.7%
In Sample (71d):41/89, 46% [36%-56%], +84.6%
Recent (8d):5/10, 50% [24%-76%], +3.5%
Brier Score:0.282 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)
Commodity OOS
Backtest (2089d):3868/8555, 45% [44%-46%], +280.4%
In Sample (70d):75/157, 48% [40%-56%], -1.4%
Recent (6d):10/12, 83% [55%-95%], +13.7%
Brier Score:0.255 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)