The Silk Risk Dashboard
2026-05-20 06:37 · v1.0
WIDE CONFIDENCE
Market Situation
Interest Rates↗
bear steepening with rising term premium pressuring equity valuations, particularly growth/duration-sensitive sectors
Financial→
AI semiconductor names at statistical extremes while small caps and financials lag, breadth narrowing significantly
Commodity↗
energy and agricultural commodities trending higher while precious metals and critical minerals selling off sharply
Currency↗
broad USD strength against majors and commodity currencies, CNY notable exception with managed appreciation
Crypto→
range-bound with low conviction, tracking risk assets loosely but underperforming tech equities
Commodity Sectors
Metals→
Gold pulling back -1.68σ/30d; Copper firm +1.60σ/252d. Mixed signals.
Energies↗
NatGas surging +2.19σ/30d alert; WTI strong +1.92σ/252d; URA down -2.06σ
Ags↗
Wheat alert at +2.50σ/252d leading; Corn +1.55σ, Soybeans +1.54σ broad bid
Softs↘
Coffee critical at -3.08σ/60d selloff dominates; Sugar quiet no breakout
Commodity Currencies
AUD↘
Mild weakness z30=-0.35; commodity tailwinds not yet reflected
CAD↘
Weakening z30=-0.66 despite strong crude; divergence notable
NZD→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate
BRL↘
Sharp weakness z30=-1.22 leading commodity FX lower
Crypto
USDT→
-$59.8M outflow; slight contraction in largest stable
USDC→
+$5.4M modest inflow; steady demand
USDS→
No meaningful change in supply
DAI↘
-$8.5M outflow; notable -0.18% decline
USD1↗
+$94.2M surge (+2.08%); dominant inflow driver
Signals
1
Critical
8
Alert
9
Watch
Click row for details
| Asset | Class | Entry | Current | Z-Score | Window | Level | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | equity | $414.05 | $414.05 | +2.94σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| NVDA | equity | $220.61 | $220.61 | +2.86σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| PDBC | equity | $18.72 | $18.72 | +2.15σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| ^IRX | equity | $3.58 | $3.58 | -1.91σ | 30d | watch | SHORT |
| CNY=X | equity | $6.80 | $6.80 | -1.66σ | 252d | watch | SHORT |
| TSM | equity | $392.61 | $392.61 | +1.58σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| KC=F * | commodity | $266.50 | $266.50 | -3.08σ | 60d | critical | LONG |
| ZW=F | commodity | $653.00 | $653.00 | +2.50σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| NG=F * | commodity | $3.02 | $3.02 | +2.19σ | 30d | alert | LONG |
| PDBC | commodity | $18.72 | $18.72 | +2.15σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| URA | commodity | $48.68 | $48.68 | -2.06σ | 30d | alert | SHORT |
| CL=F | commodity | $102.37 | $102.37 | +1.92σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| GC=F | commodity | $4,537.90 | $4,537.90 | -1.68σ | 30d | watch | SHORT |
| HG=F | commodity | $6.28 | $6.28 | +1.60σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| ZC=F * | commodity | $465.75 | $465.75 | +1.55σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| ZS=F | commodity | $1,194.75 | $1,194.75 | +1.54σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| ETH-USD * | crypto | $2,118.00 | $2,118.00 | -2.11σ | 30d | alert | SHORT |
| XRP-USD * | crypto | $1.36 | $1.36 | -1.59σ | 30d | watch | SHORT |
| CORN | commodity | $18.63 | $18.59 | — | — | held | HELD |
| CPER | commodity | $38.06 | $38.02 | — | — | held | HELD |
| SOYB | commodity | $25.10 | $25.18 | — | — | held | HELD |
| UNG | commodity | $11.38 | $11.72 | — | — | held | HELD |
| WEAT | commodity | $24.71 | $25.20 | — | — | held | HELD |
| AVAX-USD | crypto | $9.90 | $9.15 | — | — | held | HELD |
| LINK-USD | crypto | $10.43 | $9.48 | — | — | held | HELD |
| DOT-USD | crypto | $1.40 | $1.22 | — | — | held | HELD |
| SOL-USD | crypto | $93.90 | $84.25 | — | — | held | HELD |
| ADA-USD | crypto | $0.27 | $0.25 | — | — | held | HELD |
Risk
Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
$210 · 4d
exposure $4,875 · 5 positions · σ 20.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$47.86
Crypto
$2 · 4d
exposure $38 · 5 positions · σ 21.6% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.49
Geopolitical Risk
0.52 stable
Mid-2026 geopolitical landscape shows simmering conflicts in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and East Asia capable of disrupting energy supplies, FX, and risk sentiment, yet recent diplomatic initiatives in Ukraine and nuclear talks provide clear de-escalation pathways that temper overall market risk.
Middle East medium
Renewed Israel-Iran tensions over nuclear sites with proxy clashes
oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high
Stalled Ukraine peace talks amid Russian border troop repositioning
natgasoilfx
NG=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 10d
East Asia medium
Chinese military drills near Taiwan raising regional anxiety
risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 21d
Top tail risk medium high
Major cyber attack on European LNG infrastructure by state-linked actors
Invalidate if: Independent verification of reduced hostile cyber activity and successful backchannel negotiations between NATO and Russia
Metrics
Core (Equity)
Rolling Sharpe
1m 2.26 | 3m 4.22 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.1% | 3m 24.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -0.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.55 (assets: 20)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 26% | High-Vol 24% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Commodities
Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)
Crypto
Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)
Combined
Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.96 | 3m 5.76 | 12m 2.33
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.1% | 3m 22.8% | 12m 49.7%
Drawdown
Current -0.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
8.56 (assets: 36)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Performance Scorecard
Core Forecast
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (1042d) | 574/1292 | 44% [42%-47%] | +359.7% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (89d) | 60/115 | 52% [43%-61%] | +117.8% | Longs only |
| Recent (7d) | 8/14 | 57% [33%-79%] | +66.2% | Longs only |
| Brier Score | 0.292 FAIL (threshold: 0.25) | Longs only | ||
Commodity OOS
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2089d) | 2274/4959 | 46% [44%-47%] | +183.7% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (106d) | 73/132 | 55% [47%-64%] | +23.3% | Longs only |
| Brier Score | 0.247 PASS (threshold: 0.25) | Longs only | ||
Crypto OOS
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of Sample (81d) | 46/103 | 45% [35%-54%] | +29.5% | Longs only |
| Recent (8d) | 0/7 | 0% [0%-35%] | -21.5% | Longs only |
| Brier Score | 0.257 FAIL (threshold: 0.25) | Longs only | ||
Combined
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2089d) | 2848/6251 | 46% [44%-47%] | +220.1% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (106d) | 179/350 | 51% [46%-56%] | +56.2% | Longs only |
| Recent (8d) | 8/21 | 38% [21%-59%] | +37.0% | Longs only |
| Brier Score | 0.257 FAIL (threshold: 0.25) | Longs only | ||