The Silk Risk Dashboard
2026-05-21 06:37 · v1.0
WIDE CONFIDENCE
Market Situation
Interest Rates↗
steepening curve reflects term premium repricing and fiscal supply concerns; MOVE index at 81.53 (+17.1% 5d) signals elevated rate volatility
Financial→
semiconductor complex at statistical extremes; mean reversion base rate 77% [n=1686]; narrow tech leadership with financials -1.8% 30d and healthcare flat
Commodity→
bifurcation between agricultural/energy commodities (up) and industrial/transition metals (down); broad commodity index PDBC at +2.14σ UP
Currency↘
USD strengthening against EUR and commodity currencies (AUD -0.4%, BRL -1.4% 30d); CNY weakness reflects Chinese economic headwinds and capital outflow pressure
Crypto↗
range-bound and decoupled from tech rally; no sigma signals active; low conviction environment with crypto lagging risk-on narrative
Commodity Sectors
Metals↗
Copper leads at +1.65σ/252d watch; broad sector lifted by weakening USD
Energies→
Uranium -2.06σ/30d alert vs NatGas +1.70σ/30d & WTI +1.63σ/252d; mixed
Ags↗
Wheat surges +2.52σ/252d alert; Soybeans +1.56σ/252d watch; broad bid
Softs↘
Coffee crashes -3.08σ/60d critical; Sugar quiet near neutral
Commodity Currencies
AUD↘
AUD weakening z30=-0.87; diverging from metals strength
CAD↘
CAD soft z30=-0.63; lagging energy mixed signals
NZD→
No z-score data available; direction indeterminate
BRL↘
BRL sharp weakness z30=-1.60; pressured despite ag strength
Crypto
USDT→
Flat at $189.6B; negligible change (-0.000%)
USDC↗
+$54.7M inflow (+0.072%); dominant mover today
USDS→
Negligible supply; no meaningful change
DAI→
+$1.7M modest inflow (+0.037%); within neutral band
USD1→
Flat at $4.69B; minor -$0.2M outflow (-0.004%)
Signals
4
Critical
5
Alert
9
Watch
Click row for details
| Asset | Class | Entry | Current | Z-Score | Window | Level | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | equity | $447.58 | $447.58 | +3.35σ | 252d | critical | SHORT |
| ^IRX | equity | $3.56 | $3.56 | -3.07σ | 60d | critical | LONG |
| NVDA | equity | $223.47 | $223.47 | +3.01σ | 252d | critical | SHORT |
| SOXX * | equity | $519.73 | $520.31 | +2.82σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| PDBC | equity | $18.72 | $18.72 | +2.14σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| IWM * | equity | $279.87 | $279.87 | +1.90σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| EURUSD=X * | equity | $1.16 | $1.16 | -1.80σ | 30d | watch | SHORT |
| TSM | equity | $401.62 | $401.62 | +1.74σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| CNY=X | equity | $6.81 | $6.81 | -1.53σ | 252d | watch | SHORT |
| KC=F * | commodity | $266.50 | $266.50 | -3.08σ | 60d | critical | LONG |
| ZW=F | commodity | $661.00 | $661.00 | +2.52σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| PDBC | commodity | $18.72 | $18.72 | +2.14σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| URA | commodity | $48.68 | $48.68 | -2.06σ | 30d | alert | SHORT |
| NG=F | commodity | $3.04 | $3.04 | +1.70σ | 30d | watch | LONG |
| HG=F | commodity | $6.34 | $6.34 | +1.65σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| CL=F | commodity | $98.94 | $98.94 | +1.63σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| ZS=F | commodity | $1,199.25 | $1,199.25 | +1.56σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| ETH-USD | crypto | $2,112.69 | $2,112.69 | -1.97σ | 30d | watch | SHORT |
| CPER | commodity | $38.04 | $38.01 | — | — | held | HELD |
| SOYB | commodity | $25.14 | $25.07 | — | — | held | HELD |
| UNG | commodity | $11.54 | $11.54 | — | — | held | HELD |
| USO | commodity | $149.57 | $149.88 | — | — | held | HELD |
| WEAT | commodity | $25.01 | $24.77 | — | — | held | HELD |
| AVAX-USD | crypto | $9.90 | $9.30 | — | — | held | HELD |
| LINK-USD | crypto | $10.43 | $9.57 | — | — | held | HELD |
| DOT-USD | crypto | $1.40 | $1.25 | — | — | held | HELD |
| SOL-USD | crypto | $93.90 | $85.66 | — | — | held | HELD |
| ADA-USD | crypto | $0.27 | $0.25 | — | — | held | HELD |
Risk
Core
$11 · 4d
exposure $520 · 1 position · σ 10.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$0.47
Commodities
$361 · 4d
exposure $7,778 · 5 positions · σ 22.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$24.19
Crypto
$2 · 4d
exposure $38 · 5 positions · σ 21.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.98
Geopolitical Risk
0.38 stable
Persistent state tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are offset by active diplomatic channels and no major supply disruptions, producing contained near-term effects on commodities and risk assets.
Middle East medium
Iran-Israel shadow conflict with threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping
oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high
Russian incremental gains in Ukraine raising European natgas supply risks
natgasrates
NG=F
horizon: 21d
East Asia medium
Chinese naval drills near Taiwan increasing regional uncertainty
fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high
Major cyber attack on European energy infrastructure attributed to state actor
Invalidate if: Observable progress in Ukraine ceasefire negotiations via neutral mediators
Finance View — Three Sheets
Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -0.64
EURUSD=X: z=-2.35; USDJPY=X: z=+0.64; CNY=X: z=-0.13
Income +1 risk-on
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.31
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.13, z=+2.87
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See
docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md. Metrics
Core (Equity)
Rolling Sharpe
1m 2.81 | 3m 4.41 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 26.6% | 3m 24.0% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current 0.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.62 (assets: 20)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 27% | High-Vol 23% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Commodities
Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)
Crypto
Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)
Combined
Rolling Sharpe
1m 5.70 | 3m 5.78 | 12m 2.32
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.3% | 3m 22.6% | 12m 49.7%
Drawdown
Current 0.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
8.76 (assets: 36)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Performance Scorecard
Core Forecast
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (1042d) | 574/1292 | 44% [42%-47%] | +359.7% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (90d) | 60/115 | 52% [43%-61%] | +117.8% | Longs only |
| Recent (7d) | 9/14 | 64% [39%-84%] | +69.6% | Longs only |
| Brier Score | 0.293 FAIL (threshold: 0.25) | Longs only | ||
Commodity OOS
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2089d) | 2274/4959 | 46% [44%-47%] | +183.7% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (107d) | 73/132 | 55% [47%-64%] | +23.3% | Longs only |
| Brier Score | 0.247 PASS (threshold: 0.25) | Longs only | ||
Crypto OOS
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of Sample (82d) | 46/103 | 45% [35%-54%] | +29.5% | Longs only |
| Recent (8d) | 0/7 | 0% [0%-35%] | -21.5% | Longs only |
| Brier Score | 0.257 FAIL (threshold: 0.25) | Longs only | ||
Combined
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2089d) | 2848/6251 | 46% [44%-47%] | +220.1% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (107d) | 179/350 | 51% [46%-56%] | +56.2% | Longs only |
| Recent (8d) | 9/21 | 43% [24%-63%] | +39.2% | Longs only |
| Brier Score | 0.257 FAIL (threshold: 0.25) | Longs only | ||