The Silk -

Market Situation

Signals

0 Critical

0 Alert

0 Watch

Click row for details

Show held positions

Asset	Class	Entry	Current	Z-Score	Window	Level	Trade
CORN	commodity	$18.34	$18.36	—	—	held	HELD
CPER	commodity	$38.62	$38.92	—	—	held	HELD
SOXX	equity	$519.73	$537.33	—	—	held	HELD
SOYB	commodity	$25.13	$25.06	—	—	held	HELD
WEAT	commodity	$24.58	$24.55	—	—	held	HELD
AVAX-USD	crypto	$9.90	$9.02	—	—	held	HELD
ADA-USD	crypto	$0.27	$0.24	—	—	held	HELD

Risk

Core

$11 · 4d

exposure $520 · 1 position · σ 10.2% annual (21d realized)

P&L +$17.60

Commodities

$2,744 · 4d

exposure $60,100 · 4 positions · σ 22.0% annual (21d realized)

P&L +$72.88

Crypto

$0 · 4d

exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 21.7% annual (21d realized)

P&L -$0.89

Geopolitical Risk

0.41 stable

Diplomatic channels in Ukraine and the Middle East are showing incremental progress toward de-escalation amid economic pressures on key actors, keeping near-term disruption risks contained despite sporadic incidents; Indo-Pacific frictions remain rhetorical with no acute flashpoints, supporting stable commodity, FX, and risk-asset pricing over the 7-30 day window.

Eastern Europe medium

Russia-Ukraine framework talks advance with phased ceasefire proposals despite localized Black Sea incidents

natgasoilrates

NG=F, CL=F

horizon: 21d

Middle East high

Contained Iran-Israel shadow exchanges with active backchannel diplomacy and Red Sea shipping patrols

oilrisk_assets

CL=F, GLD

horizon: 14d

East Asia medium

Routine Chinese Taiwan Strait patrols and US semiconductor curbs without escalation triggers

fxrisk_assets

USDJPY=X, SPX

horizon: 30d

Top tail risk medium high

Sudden breakdown of Ukraine talks triggering renewed major Russian offensive and European energy shock

Invalidate if: Visible mutual troop withdrawals or ratification of initial ceasefire terms within 14 days

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on

Cash Flow 0 neutral

2/5 signals agreeing

CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5

CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -0.64

EURUSD=X: z=-2.35; USDJPY=X: z=+0.64; CNY=X: z=-0.13

Income +1 risk-on

3/5 signals agreeing

I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5

I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00

IWM/SPY: z21=-2.31

Balance Sheet 0 neutral

2/5 signals agreeing

B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6

B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00

real_yield_10y: latest=2.13, z=+2.87

Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells

Pending signals (not in vote): B-6

V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL

Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.0 effective 2026-05-21

Account paper

NAV$100,000

Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)

Drawdown+0.00%

As of2026-05-21

Sleeve	Target	Buffer	Admission cap
silk_commodity_etf	40%	+5pp	$27,000
silk_commodity_futures	40%	+5pp	$27,000
silk_crypto	20%	+5pp	$15,000
silk_equity	40%	+5pp	$27,000

Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.0 is the active production schema since 2026-05-21. Pre-2026-05-21 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe

1m 3.86 | 3m 4.63 | 12m n/a

Rolling Volatility

1m 28.0% | 3m 24.4% | 12m n/a

Drawdown

Current 0.0% | Max -22.3%

ENB

4.65 (assets: 21)

Regime Probability

Low-Vol 24% | High-Vol 26% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%

Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe

1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89

Rolling Volatility

1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%

Drawdown

Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%

ENB

3.01 (assets: 13)

Regime Probability

Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%

Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe

1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97

Rolling Volatility

1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%

Drawdown

Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%

ENB

7.49 (assets: 8)

Regime Probability

Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%

Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe

1m 6.76 | 3m 5.97 | 12m 2.30

Rolling Volatility

1m 24.6% | 3m 23.0% | 12m 49.6%

Drawdown

Current 0.0% | Max -88.4%

ENB

8.69 (assets: 37)

Regime Probability

Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%

Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)	574/1292	44% [42%-47%]	+359.7%	Longs only
Out of Sample (92d)	60/117	51% [42%-60%]	+105.4%	Longs only
Recent (7d)	6/10	60% [31%-83%]	+50.9%	Longs only
Brier Score	0.294 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)			Longs only

Commodity OOS

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)	2274/4959	46% [44%-47%]	+183.7%	Longs only
Out of Sample (109d)	73/133	55% [46%-63%]	+20.4%	Longs only
Recent (8d)	0/1	0% [0%-79%]	-2.4%	Longs only
Brier Score	0.247 PASS (threshold: 0.25)			Longs only

Crypto OOS

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Out of Sample (84d)	46/103	45% [35%-54%]	+29.5%	Longs only
Recent (8d)	0/1	0% [0%-79%]	-9.8%	Longs only
Brier Score	0.257 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)			Longs only

Combined

Window	Wins/Total	Rate	Return	Stats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)	2848/6251	46% [44%-47%]	+220.1%	Longs only
Out of Sample (109d)	179/353	51% [46%-56%]	+51.2%	Longs only
Recent (8d)	6/12	50% [25%-75%]	+41.4%	Longs only
Brier Score	0.257 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)			Longs only