The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-05-27 06:37 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Situation

Interest Rates→
near-term stability but upward pressure on 10Y persists
Financial↗
SPY +5.0% 30d, QQQ proxy (Nasdaq) +10.2% 30d, Russell 2000 +4.9% 30d with IWM at +2.53σ ALERT — tech sector +15.7% 30d driving indices; AMD at +3.77σ CRITICAL UP (+50.4% 30d), SOXX at +3.27σ CRITICAL UP — semiconductor rally at statistical extremes where mean reversion probability is 77% [n=1686]; breadth momentum -5 warns of narrowing participation
Commodity→
Crude oil $91.42 (-15.2% 5d) — CRITICAL DOWN move; gold $4551 resilient (+1.0% 5d) as safe haven; copper +6.9% 30d and silver +3.7% 30d reflect industrial demand; lithium $174.69 (-7.2% 30d) still weak despite +3.4% 5d bounce; nat gas +19.7% 30d seasonal strength; broad commodities index -4.9% 5d dragged by energy
Currency↗
USD modestly firm against commodity bloc
Crypto→
watch for correlation re-engagement if tech corrects

Commodity Sectors

Metals↗
Copper +1.78σ/252d up at watch; curr weakening
Energies→
No σ breakouts; PDS moderate, curr weakening
Ags↗
Wheat +1.94σ/252d up at watch; curr weakening
Softs↘
Coffee -1.89σ/60d down at watch; curr weakening

Commodity Currencies

AUD↘
z30=-0.54 weakening vs USD
CAD↘
z30=-2.08 strongest weakening vs USD
NZD→
No data available
BRL↘
z30=-0.50 weakening vs USD

Crypto

USDT→
-$51.1M (-0.027%)
USDC↗
+$84.9M (+0.111%)
USDS→
+$0.0M (+0.000%)
DAI↗
+$15.3M (+0.332%)
USD1↘
-$22.0M (-0.460%)

Signals

2 Critical
2 Alert
8 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
AMD equity $503.89 $503.89 +3.77σ 252d critical SHORT
SOXX equity $558.83 $570.09 +3.27σ 252d critical SHORT
IWM equity $288.99 $290.51 +2.53σ 252d alert LONG
NVDA * equity $215.59 $214.86 +2.16σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $412.32 $412.32 +1.90σ 252d watch LONG
CNY=X equity $6.79 $6.79 -1.62σ 252d watch SHORT
PDBC equity $17.91 $17.91 +1.61σ 252d watch LONG
ZW=F commodity $640.00 $640.00 +1.94σ 252d watch LONG
KC=F commodity $272.05 $272.05 -1.89σ 60d watch SHORT
HG=F * commodity $6.43 $6.43 +1.78σ 252d watch LONG
PDBC commodity $17.91 $17.91 +1.61σ 252d watch LONG
XRP-USD * crypto $1.33 $1.33 -1.57σ 30d watch SHORT
CORN commodity $18.27 $18.06 — — held HELD
CPER commodity $38.98 $38.72 — — held HELD
SOYB commodity $24.98 $24.88 — — held HELD
UNG commodity $11.15 $11.13 — — held HELD
WEAT commodity $24.45 $23.84 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $9.09 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.24 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$949 · 4d
exposure $44,991 · 3 positions · σ 10.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$139.16
Commodities
$8,034 · 4d
exposure $164,879 · 5 positions · σ 23.5% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2,137.35
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 21.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$0.81

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Geopolitical risk is stable as diplomatic progress in Ukraine and declining Red Sea disruptions offset flare-ups in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific; energy and risk assets face contained volatility over the next 7-30 days.

Eastern Europe medium

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire framework advances with third-party mediation

natgasrisk_assets
NG=F
horizon: 21d
Middle East high

Iran proxy militias escalate strikes on Israeli targets amid nuclear talks

oil
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 10d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese naval patrols intensify near Taiwan amid US freedom-of-navigation operations

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X
horizon: 28d
Top tail risk low severe

Rapid escalation into direct Iran-Israel kinetic conflict closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Successful resumption of multilateral nuclear talks or mutual de-escalatory statements from both capitals

Hotspot calibration: 1/1 hits (100%), Brier 0.202 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-05-27

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -0.64
EURUSD=X: z=-2.35; USDJPY=X: z=+0.64; CNY=X: z=-0.13
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.31
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.13, z=+2.87
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-05-19

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.0 effective 2026-05-21
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.0 is the active production schema since 2026-05-21. Pre-2026-05-21 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 5.43 | 3m 5.68 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 26.3% | 3m 23.7% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current 0.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.35 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 26% | High-Vol 24% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 6.92 | 3m 7.38 | 12m 2.35
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.2% | 3m 21.8% | 12m 49.1%
Drawdown
Current 0.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
8.25 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (96d)67/12852% [44%-61%]+176.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/850% [22%-78%]+23.6%Longs only
Brier Score0.295 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (113d)73/13554% [46%-62%]+14.2%Longs only
Recent (8d)0/30% [0%-56%]-7.4%Longs only
Brier Score0.248 PASS (threshold: 0.25)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (88d)46/10345% [35%-54%]+29.5%Longs only
Brier Score0.257 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (113d)186/36651% [46%-56%]+75.2%Longs only
Recent (8d)4/1136% [15%-65%]+15.1%Longs only
Brier Score0.258 FAIL (threshold: 0.25)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.