The Silk Risk Dashboard
2026-05-31 04:32 · v1.0
WIDE CONFIDENCE
Market Situation
Interest Rates↗
stable rates backdrop is mildly supportive for equities, though sentiment weakness limits upside conviction
Financial→
equities are still advancing, but semiconductors are at statistical extremes and vulnerable to 4-day mean reversion within a still-bullish 30-day backdrop
Commodity↗
broad commodities are soft, but energy chokepoint risk keeps upside tail risk alive despite current oil weakness
Currency↗
dollar is mixed, while yuan strength suggests easing immediate China stress but remains sensitive to policy reversal
Crypto↘
crypto is in a short-term downswing and lacks a calibrated reversal signal, leaving it more vulnerable than equities if risk appetite fades
Commodity Sectors
Metals↗
Copper leads sector higher with +1.70σ breakout, signaling watch level.
Energies↗
Nat Gas spikes +2.41σ (alert) offsetting WTI -1.71σ drop.
Ags→
No breakouts detected across grains; sector momentum remains neutral.
Softs↘
Coffee triggers alert with -2.10σ breakdown, dragging sector lower.
Commodity Currencies
AUD↗
Strengthening trend with +0.19σ momentum.
CAD↘
Weakening momentum at -1.22σ, tracking oil lower.
NZD→
No data available; momentum neutral.
BRL↘
Weakening trend at -0.88σ.
Crypto
USDT→
Flat supply at $188.18B.
USDC↘
Leads outflows, dropping $193.4M to $75.89B.
USDS→
Zero supply and no movement.
DAI↗
Minor inflows adding $6.6M to $4.60B supply.
USD1↘
Supply shrank by $9.3M to $4.74B.
Signals
1
Critical
5
Alert
6
Watch
Click row for details
| Asset | Class | Entry | Current | Z-Score | Window | Level | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | equity | $516.10 | $516.10 | +3.50σ | 252d | critical | SHORT |
| SOXX | equity | $569.08 | $569.08 | +2.99σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| IWM | equity | $290.53 | $290.43 | +2.41σ | 252d | alert | LONG |
| CNY=X | equity | $6.77 | $6.77 | -2.30σ | 30d | alert | SHORT |
| TSM | equity | $418.45 | $418.45 | +1.96σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| NVDA * | equity | $211.14 | $211.14 | +1.77σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| NG=F | commodity | $3.29 | $3.29 | +2.41σ | 30d | alert | LONG |
| KC=F | commodity | $265.90 | $265.90 | -2.10σ | 60d | alert | SHORT |
| CL=F | commodity | $88.14 | $88.14 | -1.71σ | 30d | watch | SHORT |
| HG=F * | commodity | $6.41 | $6.41 | +1.70σ | 252d | watch | LONG |
| ETH-USD | crypto | $2,019.51 | $2,019.51 | -1.75σ | 60d | watch | SHORT |
| BTC-USD | crypto | $73,823.96 | $73,823.96 | -1.59σ | 30d | watch | SHORT |
| CORN | commodity | $18.27 | $17.93 | — | — | held | HELD |
| CPER | commodity | $38.98 | $38.86 | — | — | held | HELD |
| SOYB | commodity | $24.98 | $25.15 | — | — | held | HELD |
| UNG | commodity | $11.15 | $11.93 | — | — | held | HELD |
| WEAT | commodity | $24.45 | $23.38 | — | — | held | HELD |
| AVAX-USD | crypto | $9.90 | $8.99 | — | — | held | HELD |
| ADA-USD | crypto | $0.27 | $0.24 | — | — | held | HELD |
Risk
Core
$302 · 4d
exposure $14,817 · 1 position · σ 9.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$5.04
Commodities
$7,392 · 4d
exposure $164,879 · 5 positions · σ 21.6% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$1,906.05
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 20.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$0.91
Geopolitical Risk
0.65 escalating
Global geopolitical risk is elevated due to synchronized maritime pressure in the South China Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, threatening energy and semiconductor supply chains. However, back-channel diplomatic efforts provide a credible de-escalation pathway that markets may be underpricing.
East Asia high
PLA naval encirclement drills and airspace incursions near Taiwan following the May inauguration anniversary
risk_assetsfx
TWD=X, JPY=X, USDCNH=X
horizon: 14d
Middle East medium
Increased proxy harassment of tanker traffic near the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea choke points
oilrisk_assets
CL=F, BZ=F, GLD
horizon: 30d
Eastern Europe medium
Targeted strikes on western Ukrainian natural gas storage and transit infrastructure ahead of summer refill season
natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Top tail risk medium high
Sustained disruption of the Strait of Hormuz leading to a sudden 15-20% spike in global crude prices and a subsequent inflation shock.
Invalidate if: OPEC+ announces immediate deployment of spare capacity and regional actors sign a temporary maritime ceasefire agreement.
Hotspot calibration: 3/3 hits (100%), Brier 0.156 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels
Finance View — Three Sheets
Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -0.64
EURUSD=X: z=-2.35; USDJPY=X: z=+0.64; CNY=X: z=-0.13
Income +1 risk-on
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.31
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.13, z=+2.87
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See
docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md. Sleeve Ledger — Money Management
MM Policy v1.0 effective 2026-05-21
Account paper
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
| Sleeve | Target | Buffer | Admission cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| silk_commodity_etf | 40% | +5pp | $27,000 |
| silk_commodity_futures | 40% | +5pp | $27,000 |
| silk_crypto | 20% | +5pp | $15,000 |
| silk_equity | 40% | +5pp | $27,000 |
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)
MM policy vv1.0 is the active production schema since 2026-05-21. Pre-2026-05-21 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.
Metrics
Core (Equity)
Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.50 | 3m 4.76 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.5% | 3m 23.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -1.1% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.90 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 31% | High-Vol 19% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Commodities
Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)
Crypto
Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)
Combined
Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.50 | 3m 6.33 | 12m 2.25
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.5% | 3m 21.4% | 12m 49.0%
Drawdown
Current -1.1% | Max -88.4%
ENB
7.03 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)
Performance Scorecard
Core Forecast
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (1042d) | 574/1292 | 44% [42%-47%] | +359.7% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (100d) | 68/129 | 53% [44%-61%] | +178.6% | Longs only |
| Recent (7d) | 3/6 | 50% [19%-81%] | -1.2% | Longs only |
| OOS Sharpe | 1.56 (annualized, trade-level) | Longs only | ||
Commodity OOS
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2089d) | 2274/4959 | 46% [44%-47%] | +183.7% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (117d) | 74/138 | 54% [45%-62%] | +10.3% | Longs only |
| Recent (8d) | 1/3 | 33% [6%-79%] | -3.4% | Longs only |
| OOS Sharpe | 0.59 (annualized, trade-level) | Longs only | ||
Crypto OOS
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Out of Sample (1372d) | 109/234 | 47% [40%-53%] | +51.2% | Longs only |
| OOS Sharpe | 0.07 (annualized, trade-level) | Longs only | ||
Combined
| Window | Wins/Total | Rate | Return | Stats Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backtest (2089d) | 2848/6251 | 46% [44%-47%] | +220.1% | Longs only |
| Out of Sample (1372d) | 251/501 | 50% [46%-54%] | +72.7% | Longs only |
| Recent (8d) | 4/9 | 44% [19%-73%] | -1.9% | Longs only |
| OOS Sharpe | 0.60 (annualized, trade-level) | Longs only | ||