The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-12 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Situation

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SOXX equity $555.55 $586.93 +2.61σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $488.45 $488.45 +2.49σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $290.41 $290.41 +2.14σ 252d alert LONG
PDBC * equity $17.24 $17.24 -1.84σ 30d watch SHORT
TSM equity $421.07 $421.07 +1.81σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.15 $1.15 -1.73σ 30d watch SHORT
CNY=X equity $6.77 $6.77 -1.59σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.62 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates→68%
Normal yield curve and declining fed funds setting up for range trading ahead of key data releases
2-day forecastYields likely to hold steady over next 2 sessions with 10Y expected in 4.40-4.55 range if NFP and CPI align with consensus expectations.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.60
  • 2s10s spread changes more than 5bp
  • Fed funds futures shift >3bp
Financial↘63%
Semiconductors and small caps at ALERT sigma extremes after outperformance setting up for mean reversion
2-day forecastFinancials and tech likely to pull back over next 2 sessions toward recent means if SOXX remains above +2σ with momentum fading.
Watch
  • SOXX declines more than 2.0%
  • VIX rises above 21
  • IWM drops below prior close by 1.5%
Commodity↗64%
Broad commodities at WATCH downside extremes with lithium and rare earths rebounding setting up for mean reversion
2-day forecastCommodities expected to continue rebound over next 2 sessions if crude holds support and lithium builds on its 8% daily gain.
Watch
  • PDBC rises above 1.5%
  • Crude oil recovers above 85
  • Lithium price exceeds 165
Currency↗59%
EURUSD and USDCNY at WATCH depreciation extremes versus USD setting up for mean-reversion bounce
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to rebound over next 2 sessions if risk sentiment holds and rate differentials do not widen further.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.165
  • USDCNY declines below 6.70
  • DXY falls more than 0.5%
Crypto→57%
Bitcoin consolidating after 30d drawdown with neutral momentum and no sigma signal
2-day forecastCrypto likely to trade in tight range over next 2 sessions unless ETF flows or perpetual funding rates shift by more than 10bp.
Watch
  • BTC breaks above 65000
  • BTC breaks below 61000
  • ETH outperforms BTC by 2%

Risk

Core
$434 · 4d
exposure $13,910 · 1 position · σ 15.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$859.71
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 39.3% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.29

Geopolitical Risk

0.47 stable

Active diplomatic tracks in Ukraine and indirect Iran-West channels are offsetting sporadic Middle East incidents and South China Sea posturing, producing a stable risk regime with primary transmission to energy prices and selective safe-haven flows over the next 7-30 days.

Middle East medium

Iran nuclear enrichment advances prompt renewed sanctions rhetoric but no kinetic strikes

oilfx
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 21d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire framework talks mediated by third parties show incremental progress

natgasrates
NG=F
horizon: 30d
East Asia medium

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan and South China Sea raise freedom-of-navigation concerns

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X
horizon: 14d
Top tail risk medium high

Abrupt collapse of Ukraine talks followed by major winter offensive

Invalidate if: Observable adherence to current front lines plus mutual prisoner releases confirming de-escalation path

Hotspot calibration: 20/27 hits (74%), Brier 0.209 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-12

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -0.64
EURUSD=X: z=-2.35; USDJPY=X: z=+0.64; CNY=X: z=-0.13
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.31
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.13, z=+2.87
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-05-19

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.30 | 3m 6.06 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 14.4% | 3m 21.3% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -3.8% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.55 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 43% | High-Vol 7% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.30 | 3m 7.00 | 12m 2.26
Rolling Volatility
1m 14.4% | 3m 20.0% | 12m 47.8%
Drawdown
Current -3.8% | Max -88.4%
ENB
5.08 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 41% | High-Vol 9% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (112d)80/15452% [44%-60%]+166.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/1030% [11%-60%]-9.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.22 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (128d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
Recent (8d)0/20% [0%-66%]-4.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1381d)109/24445% [39%-51%]+15.6%Longs only
Recent (8d)0/100% [0%-28%]-23.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.54 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1381d)264/54049% [45%-53%]+56.1%Longs only
Recent (8d)3/2214% [5%-33%]-15.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.24 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.