The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-16 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates→68%50% [n=2] Brier 0.271
Normal curve with sticky long-end yields and front-end easing bias from recent fed funds decline
2-day forecastLong yields likely to remain sticky near current levels over next 2 sessions; if upcoming data confirms disinflation then 2s/10s spread expected to hold or widen modestly above 45bp.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.60
  • 2s/10s spread narrows below 40bp
  • NFP print exceeds 200k
Financial↘65%0% [n=2] Brier 0.391
Semis and small caps at ALERT statistical extremes (+2.65σ SOXX, +2.37σ IWM) after strong gains
2-day forecastIWM and SOXX likely to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if breadth momentum stays negative, with pullback accelerating if VIX rises above 17.
Watch
  • SOXX declines >2%
  • VIX closes above 17.5
  • IWM fails to hold 5d mean
Commodity↗64%0% [n=2] Brier 0.325
Broad commodities and crude at -2.06σ extremes after sharp multi-week declines
2-day forecastCommodities likely to bounce higher over next 2 sessions via mean reversion if no geo escalation, with crude expected to recover if it holds above $75.
Watch
  • Crude rises above $79
  • PDBC gains >1.5%
  • No Red Sea attack intensification
Currency↘56%50% [n=2] Brier 0.260
Major pairs stable with USDCNY at -1.60σ WATCH amid rate differentials
2-day forecastUSD likely to weaken modestly over next 2 sessions if disinflation data continues, pushing EURUSD higher unless real-yield spreads widen.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.165
  • USDCNY rises above 6.85
  • DXY falls below 100
Crypto↗57%100% [n=2] Brier 0.212
BTC showing 5d recovery but remains sensitive to equity sentiment and vol
2-day forecastBTC likely to consolidate with slight upside bias over next 2 sessions if equity pullback remains mild and VIX stays below 17.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 65000
  • VIX remains below 17
  • Positive ETF net inflows reported

Market Situation

Interest Rates→
Normal curve with sticky long-end yields and front-end easing bias from recent fed funds decline
Financial↘
Semis and small caps at ALERT statistical extremes (+2.65σ SOXX, +2.37σ IWM) after strong gains
Commodity↗
Broad commodities and crude at -2.06σ extremes after sharp multi-week declines
Currency↘
Major pairs stable with USDCNY at -1.60σ WATCH amid rate differentials
Crypto↗
BTC showing 5d recovery but remains sensitive to equity sentiment and vol

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
AMD equity $511.57 $511.57 +2.66σ 252d alert LONG
SOXX equity $555.55 $595.97 +2.65σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $294.64 $294.64 +2.37σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $441.40 $441.40 +2.18σ 252d alert LONG
PDBC * equity $16.89 $16.89 -2.06σ 30d alert SHORT
CNY=X equity $6.77 $6.77 -1.60σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.92 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.18 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$399 · 4d
exposure $12,799 · 1 position · σ 15.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$1,749.68
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 40.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.99

Geopolitical Risk

0.55 escalating

Middle East proxy clashes and stalled Ukraine talks sustain commodity risk premia while US-China maritime friction weighs on risk sentiment and select FX pairs. Active diplomatic channels in multiple theaters cap immediate escalation probability.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxies intensify Red Sea shipping attacks after Israeli strikes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations stall over territorial concessions

natgasrates
NG=F, TLT
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese naval drills encroach on Taiwanese waters prompting US response

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Coordinated cyber-physical attacks on European LNG terminals

Invalidate if: Verifiable Russia-Ukraine ceasefire framework signed with monitoring provisions

Hotspot calibration: 30/42 hits (71%), Brier 0.225 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-16

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -0.64
EURUSD=X: z=-2.35; USDJPY=X: z=+0.64; CNY=X: z=-0.13
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.31
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.13, z=+2.87
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-05-19

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.30 | 3m 6.72 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.3% | 3m 21.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current 0.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.42 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.30 | 3m 7.82 | 12m 2.32
Rolling Volatility
1m 18.3% | 3m 20.4% | 12m 47.7%
Drawdown
Current 0.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.97 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (126d)91/18051% [43%-58%]+164.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/633% [10%-70%]-7.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.38 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (132d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1386d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
Recent (8d)7/1258% [32%-81%]+3.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1386d)282/58648% [44%-52%]+57.6%Longs only
Recent (8d)9/1850% [29%-71%]+0.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.22 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.