The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-19 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates→61%
Normal curve with sticky long-end yields and front-end easing expectations set up ahead of data releases
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to hold range-bound over next 2 sessions with slight downside bias if consumer sentiment stabilizes; expect 2s/10s spread to remain above 45bp unless NFP surprises materially to upside.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.55%
  • 2s/10s spread narrows below 40bp
  • Consumer sentiment rebounds above 52
40% [n=5] Brier 0.286
Financial↗57%
ALERT-level outperformance in semis and small caps within strengthening 67% bullish direction ratio setting up selective rotation
2-day forecastSemis and small caps likely to see momentum continuation over next 2 sessions if dispersion holds moderate and VIX stays below 18; expect broadening participation unless breadth momentum falls below -10.
Watch
  • SOXX holds above current +2.5σ level
  • IWM momentum score remains above 60
  • VIX closes below 18
40% [n=5] Brier 0.299
Commodity↗68%
Broad commodities at -2.13σ extremes after 22.8% crude drawdown setting up mean-reversion dynamics
2-day forecastCommodities expected to rebound over next 2 sessions via mean reversion if no fresh supply shocks emerge; crude and PDBC likely to stabilize if China demand signals remain neutral.
Watch
  • Crude oil holds above $74.50
  • PDBC reverses at least 0.8% higher
  • Gold finds support above $4100
0% [n=5] Brier 0.408
Currency→59%
EURUSD at -1.77σ with USD supported by rate differentials and stable geo-risk transmission
2-day forecastUSD likely to remain firm over next 2 sessions with EURUSD testing lower if risk assets hold; expect commodity currencies to stabilize unless oil rebounds sharply above $77.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.14
  • USDCNY holds below 6.80
  • DXY rises above 102
20% [n=5] Brier 0.288
Crypto↗53%
BTC -14.9% 30d drawdown with funding and equity correlation sensitive to rotation and vol tone
2-day forecastCrypto likely to stabilize over next 2 sessions if financial rotation persists and VIX stays suppressed; BTC expected to hold key support levels unless equity breadth contracts further.
Watch
  • BTC holds above $61000
  • Perpetual funding rate stays neutral
  • BTC/NDX correlation remains positive
40% [n=5] Brier 0.266

Market Situation

Interest Rates→
Normal curve with sticky long-end yields and front-end easing expectations set up ahead of data releases
Financial↗
ALERT-level outperformance in semis and small caps within strengthening 67% bullish direction ratio setting up selective rotation
Commodity↗
Broad commodities at -2.13σ extremes after 22.8% crude drawdown setting up mean-reversion dynamics
Currency→
EURUSD at -1.77σ with USD supported by rate differentials and stable geo-risk transmission
Crypto↗
BTC -14.9% 30d drawdown with funding and equity correlation sensitive to rotation and vol tone

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SOXX equity $599.73 $599.73 +2.52σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $512.48 $512.48 +2.50σ 252d alert LONG
PDBC equity $16.54 $16.54 -2.13σ 30d alert SHORT
IWM equity $289.88 $289.88 +2.01σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $432.15 $432.15 +1.95σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X * equity $1.15 $1.15 -1.77σ 30d watch SHORT
CNY=X equity $6.76 $6.76 -1.61σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.02 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 40.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.89

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Diplomatic initiatives are tempering major conflict risks in Europe and the Middle East, keeping overall market transmission low; however, Indo-Pacific frictions and energy vulnerabilities warrant monitoring for second-order effects on FX, commodities, and risk premia in the 7-30 day window.

Eastern Europe medium

Incremental progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks but persistent risks to gas pipelines

natgasrisk_assets
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 14d
Middle East medium

Iran-Israel tensions over nuclear sites with active backchannel communications

oilfx
CL=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 21d
East Asia low

Chinese military drills near Taiwan amid US arms sales

risk_assetsfx
GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 10d
Top tail risk medium high

Russian withdrawal from peace talks leading to renewed winter energy crisis in Europe

Invalidate if: Observation of continued high-level diplomatic meetings or visible Russian troop withdrawals

Hotspot calibration: 37/50 hits (74%), Brier 0.238 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-19

Finance View — Three Sheets

Risk-on (moderate)
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+2.24
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-1 SPY 50-day SMA slope +1.00
SMA50 5d slope: +1.24%
Balance Sheet +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.63, z=-2.57
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-06-19

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 5.58 | 3m 5.52 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 29.4% | 3m 25.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -4.1% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.51 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 21% | High-Vol 29% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 5.58 | 3m 6.29 | 12m 2.38
Rolling Volatility
1m 29.4% | 3m 24.2% | 12m 48.1%
Drawdown
Current -4.1% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.55 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 36% | High-Vol 14% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (129d)92/18550% [43%-57%]+164.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)5/683% [44%-97%]+14.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.33 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (135d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1386d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
Recent (8d)7/1258% [32%-81%]+3.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1386d)283/59148% [44%-52%]+58.4%Longs only
Recent (8d)12/1867% [44%-84%]+7.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.21 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.