The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-20 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘58%
Normal yield curve at 48bp with sticky long-end yields as disinflation supports front-end easing
2-day forecast10y yields likely to drift lower over next 2 sessions if weak consumer sentiment data persists, unless NFP surprises high and pushes real yields up.
Watch
  • 10y yield breaks below 4.40
  • NFP <150k
  • 2s/10s widens >10bp
40% [n=5] Brier 0.286
Financial↗56%
Semis and small caps at ALERT +2.3-2.9σ extensions amid broadening rotation from mega-cap AI
2-day forecastSPX, SOXX and IWM likely to see mild continuation higher over next 2 sessions if VIX holds below 20 and breadth improves, though mean-reversion risks elevated at these levels.
Watch
  • VIX stays below 20
  • IWM closes >298
  • SOXX holds +2.5σ
40% [n=5] Brier 0.299
Commodity↗70%
Broad commodities at -2.13σ after sharp declines with PDBC, crude and precious metals at extremes
2-day forecastCommodity complex likely to mean-revert higher over next 2 sessions if geo risks stay contained per GMT4 de-escalation branch, with crude holding key support.
Watch
  • Crude holds above 75
  • Gold rebounds above 4200
  • No Middle East escalation
0% [n=5] Brier 0.408
Currency↗64%
EURUSD at -2.11σ extremes and CNY -1.51σ with USD supported by differentials but stable geo regime
2-day forecastEURUSD expected to rebound over next 2 sessions toward 1.16 if equity rotation holds and VIX mean-reverts, consistent with modest USD weakening in base case.
Watch
  • VIX falls below 18
  • EURUSD >1.155
  • USDJPY fails 162
20% [n=5] Brier 0.288
Crypto↗54%
BTC -13.6% over 30d with negative spillovers but selective risk thesis points to stabilization
2-day forecastBTC likely to stabilize with mild upside over next 2 sessions if financial rotation continues and funding rates stay neutral, though vol spike would pressure.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 62000
  • Equity indices positive
  • Perp funding neutral
40% [n=5] Brier 0.266

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Normal yield curve at 48bp with sticky long-end yields as disinflation supports front-end easing
Financial↗
Semis and small caps at ALERT +2.3-2.9σ extensions amid broadening rotation from mega-cap AI
Commodity↗
Broad commodities at -2.13σ after sharp declines with PDBC, crude and precious metals at extremes
Currency↗
EURUSD at -2.11σ extremes and CNY -1.51σ with USD supported by differentials but stable geo regime
Crypto↗
BTC -13.6% over 30d with negative spillovers but selective risk thesis points to stabilization

Signals

0 Critical
6 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SOXX equity $627.43 $639.45 +2.86σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $537.37 $537.37 +2.68σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $462.12 $462.12 +2.57σ 30d alert LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $295.59 +2.32σ 252d alert LONG
PDBC * equity $16.54 $16.54 -2.13σ 30d alert SHORT
EURUSD=X equity $1.15 $1.15 -2.11σ 30d alert SHORT
CNY=X equity $6.77 $6.77 -1.51σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.16 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$13 · 4d
exposure $373 · 2 positions · σ 16.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$4.22
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 40.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.75

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East and Eastern Europe tensions show contained transmission primarily to energy channels with moderate safe-haven bid in gold and JPY; diplomatic backchannels and high inventories limit near-term cascade while China-Taiwan posturing remains rhetorical.

Middle East medium

Iran nuclear advancements prompting Israeli covert responses

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy grid amid stalled front

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 10d
East Asia low

Chinese naval maneuvers near Taiwan and Philippines

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 28d
Top tail risk medium high

State-linked cyber operation cascading to European LNG terminals

Invalidate if: Public de-escalation statements from Moscow and NATO plus declining natgas volatility term structure

Hotspot calibration: 40/53 hits (75%), Brier 0.236 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-20

Finance View — Three Sheets

Risk-on (moderate)
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.94
Income +1 risk-on
5/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-1 SPY 50-day SMA slope +1.00
SMA50 5d slope: +1.20%
Balance Sheet +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.63, z=-2.57
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-06-20

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.32 | 3m 6.15 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 29.6% | 3m 25.4% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -0.2% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.54 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 21% | High-Vol 29% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.32 | 3m 6.83 | 12m 2.70
Rolling Volatility
1m 29.6% | 3m 24.2% | 12m 47.4%
Drawdown
Current -0.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.18 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 36% | High-Vol 14% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (130d)96/18851% [44%-58%]+178.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/520% [4%-62%]-14.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.42 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (137d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1386d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
Recent (8d)7/1258% [32%-81%]+3.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1386d)287/59448% [44%-52%]+63.6%Longs only
Recent (8d)8/1747% [26%-69%]-1.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.25 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.