The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-22 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
Short-term yields at +2.88σ ALERT with stable curve and contained geo risks opening clear de-escalation paths
2-day forecastYields likely to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if NFP/CPI schedule stays quiet and no escalation news emerges, anchored to 77% base rate for 2σ+ moves
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks below 4.40
  • 2s/10s spread changes by >8bp
  • VIX holds below 19
50% [n=6] Brier 0.280
Financial↘62%
Semis and small caps at ALERT extremes (SOXX +2.86σ, IWM +2.31σ) after momentum run with contracting breadth and high dispersion
2-day forecastEquities likely to pull back over next 2 sessions via mean reversion if VIX rises above 18 or breadth momentum stays below -8, per 77% calibration on 2σ+ signals
Watch
  • SOXX closes below 210
  • IWM declines >1.0%
  • VIX breaks above 18.5
33% [n=6] Brier 0.301
Commodity↗58%
Broad commodities at -1.96σ WATCH lows with crude -23% on 30d but stable regime lowering supply shock transmission per GMT2
2-day forecastCommodity prices likely to rebound modestly over next 2 sessions if de-escalation signals persist and China prints confirm demand floor
Watch
  • Crude oil holds above 74.00
  • PDBC gains >0.8%
  • Lithium reverses +2%
0% [n=6] Brier 0.417
Currency↗56%
EURUSD at -2.23σ ALERT low with USDJPY grinding higher on differentials while geo risk remains stable
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to stabilize or mildly recover over next 2 sessions if equities hold and rate differentials do not widen further
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.152
  • USDJPY fails 162.50
  • USDCNY stays under 6.80
17% [n=6] Brier 0.290
Crypto↗54%
BTC showing short-term positive momentum without sigma extremes in low geo-risk environment with stable ETF flows
2-day forecastCrypto likely to consolidate with slight upside bias over next 2 sessions if tech proxies remain firm and funding rates stay neutral
Watch
  • BTC holds above 63000
  • ETH/BTC ratio stable
  • ETF net flows positive
50% [n=6] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Short-term yields at +2.88σ ALERT with stable curve and contained geo risks opening clear de-escalation paths
Financial↘
Semis and small caps at ALERT extremes (SOXX +2.86σ, IWM +2.31σ) after momentum run with contracting breadth and high dispersion
Commodity↗
Broad commodities at -1.96σ WATCH lows with crude -23% on 30d but stable regime lowering supply shock transmission per GMT2
Currency↗
EURUSD at -2.23σ ALERT low with USDJPY grinding higher on differentials while geo risk remains stable
Crypto↗
BTC showing short-term positive momentum without sigma extremes in low geo-risk environment with stable ETF flows

Signals

0 Critical
6 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^IRX equity $3.66 $3.66 +2.88σ 60d alert LONG
SOXX equity $627.43 $639.45 +2.86σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $537.37 $537.37 +2.67σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $462.12 $462.12 +2.57σ 30d alert LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $295.59 +2.31σ 252d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.15 $1.15 -2.23σ 30d alert SHORT
PDBC equity $16.50 $16.50 -1.96σ 30d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.35 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$13 · 4d
exposure $376 · 2 positions · σ 16.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$7.11
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 41.3% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.56

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Contained Ukraine attrition and Middle East proxy tests transmit modestly to natgas and oil via supply disruption fears, while FX safe-haven flows and risk-asset volatility remain second-order effects; active ceasefire diplomacy and nuclear talks provide clear de-escalation equilibria that markets are already partially pricing.

Ukraine-Russia high

Stalemate with sporadic infrastructure strikes amid active bilateral ceasefire negotiations

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 14d
Middle East medium

Iranian proxies testing Gulf shipping lanes while nuclear talks resume in Vienna

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 21d
East Asia medium

Routine PLAN exercises near Taiwan with reciprocal US freedom-of-navigation operations

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, EURUSD=X
horizon: 10d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange closing Strait of Hormuz for weeks

Invalidate if: observable reduction in rhetoric, third-party mediation progress, or verifiable stand-down of proxy militias

Hotspot calibration: 45/61 hits (74%), Brier 0.246 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-22

Finance View — Three Sheets

Risk-on (moderate)
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+2.42
Income +1 risk-on
5/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-1 SPY 50-day SMA slope +1.00
SMA50 5d slope: +1.20%
Balance Sheet +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score +1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.63, z=-2.57
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-06-22

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.32 | 3m 6.15 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 29.6% | 3m 25.4% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -0.2% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.54 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 21% | High-Vol 29% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.32 | 3m 6.83 | 12m 2.70
Rolling Volatility
1m 29.6% | 3m 24.2% | 12m 47.4%
Drawdown
Current -0.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.18 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 36% | High-Vol 14% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (130d)96/18851% [44%-58%]+178.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-9.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.42 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (138d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1386d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
Recent (8d)7/1258% [32%-81%]+3.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1386d)287/59448% [44%-52%]+63.6%Longs only
Recent (8d)7/1450% [27%-73%]+1.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.25 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.