The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-23 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘54%
Short-term rates at +2.88σ ALERT (^IRX) with normal curve and stable geo-risk (0.57) set up for consolidation ahead of data releases
2-day forecastYields likely to edge lower over next 2 sessions if inflation signals remain soft or de-escalation news emerges, with 2s/10s spread holding above 75bp
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks below 4.40
  • 2s/10s spread widens >5bp
  • consumer sentiment beats 50
44% [n=9] Brier 0.284
Financial↘62%
Semis/small caps at ALERT extensions (SOXX +2.94σ, IWM +2.42σ, AMD +2.75σ) with VIX +14.6% and contracting breadth set up mean reversion
2-day forecastSPX/NDX expected to pull back over next 2 sessions if VIX holds above 19.5 or breadth momentum stays < -5, favoring 1-2% downside
Watch
  • VIX closes above 20.5
  • SOXX fails to hold recent highs
  • Russell2000 declines >1.5%
22% [n=9] Brier 0.309
Commodity↗53%
Broad commodities at WATCH extremes (PDBC -2.08σ, crude -23.3% 30d) with supportive energy transmission from stable geo hotspots set up for selective rebound
2-day forecastCommodities likely to stabilize or rebound modestly over next 2 sessions if any escalation news hits or USD softens, with crude holding above 73
Watch
  • Crude breaks above 75
  • DXY falls >0.5%
  • natgas holds above 3.20
0% [n=9] Brier 0.427
Currency↗56%
EURUSD at -2.08σ DOWN with USD supported by rate diffs and risk tone in stable geo regime set up for strength continuation
2-day forecastUSD expected to strengthen over next 2 sessions if equities revert and VIX stays elevated, driving EURUSD lower if it breaks 1.135
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.135
  • USDCNY rises above 6.80
  • 10Y real yields hold above 2%
22% [n=9] Brier 0.300
Crypto↘55%
BTC -6.3% 30d correlated to tech extensions and VIX spike set up for sympathetic move if financial mean reversion triggers
2-day forecastCrypto likely to decline over next 2 sessions in line with equity pullback if BTC breaks below 61000 or funding rates turn negative
Watch
  • BTC drops below 61000
  • VIX holds above 20
  • ETH/BTC ratio declines >2%
33% [n=9] Brier 0.270

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Short-term rates at +2.88σ ALERT (^IRX) with normal curve and stable geo-risk (0.57) set up for consolidation ahead of data releases
Financial↘
Semis/small caps at ALERT extensions (SOXX +2.94σ, IWM +2.42σ, AMD +2.75σ) with VIX +14.6% and contracting breadth set up mean reversion
Commodity↗
Broad commodities at WATCH extremes (PDBC -2.08σ, crude -23.3% 30d) with supportive energy transmission from stable geo hotspots set up for selective rebound
Currency↗
EURUSD at -2.08σ DOWN with USD supported by rate diffs and risk tone in stable geo regime set up for strength continuation
Crypto↘
BTC -6.3% 30d correlated to tech extensions and VIX spike set up for sympathetic move if financial mean reversion triggers

Signals

0 Critical
7 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
SOXX equity $627.43 $655.01 +2.94σ 252d alert LONG
^IRX equity $3.66 $3.66 +2.88σ 60d alert LONG
AMD equity $551.63 $551.63 +2.75σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $467.67 $467.67 +2.57σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $298.18 +2.42σ 252d alert LONG
PDBC equity $16.36 $16.36 -2.08σ 60d alert SHORT
EURUSD=X * equity $1.15 $1.15 -2.08σ 60d alert SHORT
ALB * equity $156.69 $156.69 -1.52σ 60d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.23 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.15 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$12 · 4d
exposure $369 · 2 positions · σ 16.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.13
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 34.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.69

Geopolitical Risk

0.57 stable

Ongoing Russia-Ukraine infrastructure strikes and Iran-Israel shadow conflict transmit primarily to energy channels with supportive effects on oil and natgas, while Indo-Pacific military posturing weighs on risk assets and funding currencies; independent market signals show partial pre-pricing with de-escalation pathways via backchannel diplomacy limiting tail convexity.

Eastern Europe high

Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 14d
Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxy attacks on Gulf shipping and Israeli targets

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan and South China Sea incursions

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Rapid NATO-Russia escalation triggered by Ukrainian counterstrike on Russian soil

Invalidate if: Mutual de-escalation signals including renewed Istanbul-style talks or observable reductions in artillery exchanges

Hotspot calibration: 47/65 hits (72%), Brier 0.247 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-23

Finance View — Three Sheets

Risk-on (moderate)
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -1.00
EURUSD=X: z=-2.42; USDJPY=X: z=+1.97; CNY=X: z=+0.24
Income +1 risk-on
4/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-1 SPY 50-day SMA slope +1.00
SMA50 5d slope: +1.14%
Balance Sheet +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-5 MOVE index z-score +1.00
^MOVE: z21=-1.80
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+1) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-06-23

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 5.61 | 3m 5.99 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 29.5% | 3m 25.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -0.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.57 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 20% | High-Vol 30% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 5.61 | 3m 7.02 | 12m 3.22
Rolling Volatility
1m 29.5% | 3m 24.0% | 12m 45.0%
Drawdown
Current -0.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.05 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 36% | High-Vol 14% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (133d)96/18851% [44%-58%]+178.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/580% [38%-96%]+10.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.42 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (139d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1394d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1394d)287/59448% [44%-52%]+63.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/580% [38%-96%]+10.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.25 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.