The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-25 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
Short-term rates at +2.88σ alert extension while yield curve stays normal at 48bp ahead of data releases and stable geo risk
2-day forecastShort-term rates likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if CPI remains contained and real-yield trajectory eases, triggering mean reversion from alert levels.
Watch
  • ^IRX drops below 5d average
  • 2s/10s spread narrows by 5bp+
  • Treasury 2Y falls below 3.60%
36% [n=11] Brier 0.297
Financial↘58%
SOXX, IWM and AMD at +2.3σ alert upside extensions amid contracting breadth momentum -6 and high dispersion
2-day forecastEquities likely to pull back over next 2 sessions if VIX rises above 19 or momentum velocity turns negative, with mean reversion from alert levels outweighing bullish bias.
Watch
  • SOXX falls below 5d MA
  • IWM underperforms SPX by 0.5%+
  • breadth momentum < -8
27% [n=11] Brier 0.301
Commodity↗67%
PDBC and crude at -2.65σ with sharp 30d declines amid ample supply buffers and stable geopolitical regime
2-day forecastCommodities likely to rebound over next 2 sessions if USD eases or China demand signals appear, driving mean reversion from current statistical extremes.
Watch
  • crude_oil > $71
  • PDBC gains >1.8%
  • gold reverses to +0.8% 1d
0% [n=11] Brier 0.405
Currency↗64%
EURUSD at -2.74σ extension lower with contained geo risk score 0.48 and ongoing backchannel diplomacy
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to mean-revert higher over next 2 sessions if real-yield spreads narrow or risk sentiment holds, correcting from alert lows.
Watch
  • EURUSD > 1.135
  • DXY falls >0.4%
  • USDCNY stable <6.82
36% [n=11] Brier 0.281
Crypto→57%
BTC near 61k with mild 5d weakness, high dispersion and no direct sigma signal amid mixed AI proxies
2-day forecastCrypto likely to consolidate neutrally over next 2 sessions unless equity reversion intensifies or ETF flows shift notably.
Watch
  • BTC holds >60000
  • funding rates stay neutral
  • BTC/NDX correlation drops below 0.6
36% [n=11] Brier 0.265

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Short-term rates at +2.88σ alert extension while yield curve stays normal at 48bp ahead of data releases and stable geo risk
Financial↘
SOXX, IWM and AMD at +2.3σ alert upside extensions amid contracting breadth momentum -6 and high dispersion
Commodity↗
PDBC and crude at -2.65σ with sharp 30d declines amid ample supply buffers and stable geopolitical regime
Currency↗
EURUSD at -2.74σ extension lower with contained geo risk score 0.48 and ongoing backchannel diplomacy
Crypto→
BTC near 61k with mild 5d weakness, high dispersion and no direct sigma signal amid mixed AI proxies

Signals

0 Critical
6 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^IRX * equity $3.66 $3.66 +2.88σ 60d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -2.74σ 60d alert SHORT
PDBC equity $15.78 $15.78 -2.65σ 60d alert SHORT
AMD equity $519.74 $519.74 +2.35σ 252d alert LONG
SOXX equity $627.43 $601.50 +2.31σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $296.69 +2.26σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $440.83 $440.83 +1.99σ 252d watch LONG
ALB equity $147.84 $147.84 -1.92σ 60d watch SHORT
NVDA equity $199.00 $199.00 -1.67σ 30d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.41 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.15 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$13 · 4d
exposure $369 · 2 positions · σ 16.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$2.62
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 33.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.50

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Persistent flashpoints in Eastern Europe and the Middle East exhibit weak transmission to commodities amid ample global supply buffers and ongoing backchannel diplomacy, while Indo-Pacific frictions weigh on FX and risk sentiment; second-order safe-haven flows remain contained with visible de-escalation equilibria.

Eastern Europe medium

Russia-Ukraine infrastructure strikes continue as ceasefire talks stall

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 18d
Middle East medium

Iran proxy clashes with Israel in Syria and Lebanon

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Indo-Pacific high

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan and South China Sea incidents

fxrisk_assetsrates
USDJPY=X, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Renewed multilateral diplomacy or mutual signaling of restraint leads to rapid de-escalation and restored shipping flows

Hotspot calibration: 53/73 hits (73%), Brier 0.243 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-25

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -1.00
EURUSD=X: z=-2.29; USDJPY=X: z=+1.98; CNY=X: z=+2.08
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) +1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=+2.16
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.29, z=+1.95
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-06-25

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.50 | 3m 4.37 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 39.1% | 3m 29.0% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -6.8% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.99 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 9% | High-Vol 41% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.50 | 3m 5.10 | 12m 2.98
Rolling Volatility
1m 39.1% | 3m 27.8% | 12m 45.2%
Drawdown
Current -6.8% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.30 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (135d)97/19350% [43%-57%]+169.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/757% [25%-84%]-1.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.33 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (141d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1396d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1396d)288/59948% [44%-52%]+61.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/757% [25%-84%]-1.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.23 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.