The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-26 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘63%
ALERT extension in short-term rates (^IRX +2.88σ above 30d mean) with normal yield curve and stable geo-risk sets up mean-reversion as real yields peak
2-day forecastShort-term rates likely to decline over next 2 sessions if 2s/10s spread widens more than 5bp or treasury_2y fails to break 3.70%; expect mean reversion on any de-escalation signal.
Watch
  • ^IRX declines >0.05
  • 2s/10s spread widens >5bp
  • No hawkish surprise in Fed speakers
36% [n=11] Brier 0.297
Financial↘60%
Multiple ALERT upside extensions (SOXX +2.50σ, IWM +2.35σ, AMD +2.42σ) against contracting breadth and rising VIX set up mean-reversion in equities
2-day forecastFinancial indices likely to pull back over next 2 sessions if VIX holds above 19.5 or breadth momentum stays below -5; expect rotation and consolidation if sigma extremes persist.
Watch
  • SOXX fails to hold above current levels
  • VIX rises >22
  • Russell2000 <298
25% [n=12] Brier 0.306
Commodity↗61%
PDBC at -2.07σ lows with crude -21.3% (30d) and contained Middle East/Eastern Europe risks creates mean-reversion setup in energy and metals
2-day forecastCommodity prices expected to rebound over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 68.50 or China demand signals emerge; likely short covering if geo-risk score stays below 0.35.
Watch
  • crude_oil rises >2%
  • PDBC gains >1.5%
  • wheat or corn extend >3%
8% [n=12] Brier 0.385
Currency↗62%
EURUSD at -2.77σ extremes with stable geo regime, normal yield curve and moderating rate differentials sets up mean-reversion in funding currencies
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to rise over next 2 sessions if it breaks above 1.145 or VIX declines below 19; expect reduced USD demand on any diplomatic off-ramps.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.145
  • USDCNY <6.75
  • USDJPY fails to hold 162
33% [n=12] Brier 0.288
Crypto→54%
BTC -7.2% (5d) with NVDA -1.84σ, rising VIX and high dispersion points to continued pressure absent clear ETF flow confirmation
2-day forecastCrypto expected to trade neutral to lower over next 2 sessions unless BTC breaks above 61000 on positive funding tone; perpetuals likely to remain under pressure if equities revert.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 58000
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
  • VIX <19 triggers relief
42% [n=12] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
ALERT extension in short-term rates (^IRX +2.88σ above 30d mean) with normal yield curve and stable geo-risk sets up mean-reversion as real yields peak
Financial↘
Multiple ALERT upside extensions (SOXX +2.50σ, IWM +2.35σ, AMD +2.42σ) against contracting breadth and rising VIX set up mean-reversion in equities
Commodity↗
PDBC at -2.07σ lows with crude -21.3% (30d) and contained Middle East/Eastern Europe risks creates mean-reversion setup in energy and metals
Currency↗
EURUSD at -2.77σ extremes with stable geo regime, normal yield curve and moderating rate differentials sets up mean-reversion in funding currencies
Crypto→
BTC -7.2% (5d) with NVDA -1.84σ, rising VIX and high dispersion points to continued pressure absent clear ETF flow confirmation

Signals

0 Critical
7 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^IRX equity $3.66 $3.66 +2.88σ 60d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -2.77σ 60d alert SHORT
SOXX equity $625.20 $625.20 +2.50σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $532.57 $532.57 +2.42σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $298.91 +2.35σ 252d alert LONG
ALB equity $141.05 $141.05 -2.20σ 60d alert SHORT
PDBC equity $16.11 $16.11 -2.07σ 60d alert SHORT
TSM equity $434.99 $434.99 +1.85σ 252d watch LONG
NVDA equity $195.74 $195.74 -1.84σ 30d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.13 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.14 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$6 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 16.6% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$1.59
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 29.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.79

Geopolitical Risk

0.32 stable

Persistent but contained state tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe maintain modest transmission to energy channels, while Indo-Pacific posturing weighs on select FX and risk gauges; independent tape confirmation is weak and diplomatic off-ramps remain open, limiting near-term cascade potential.

Middle East medium

Iran proxy actions and naval maneuvers near Strait of Hormuz

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Targeted strikes on Ukrainian and Russian energy infrastructure

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 10d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese naval drills simulating Taiwan quarantine

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Hormuz for weeks

Invalidate if: Visible de-escalation via backchannel diplomacy, reduced naval presence, or renewed multilateral nuclear talks

Hotspot calibration: 55/76 hits (72%), Brier 0.243 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-26

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -1.00
EURUSD=X: z=-1.41; USDJPY=X: z=+1.47; CNY=X: z=+1.83
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) +1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=+2.10
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-5 MOVE index z-score +1.00
^MOVE: z21=-1.80
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-06-26

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.57 | 3m 4.03 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.8% | 3m 27.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -6.2% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.00 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 9% | High-Vol 41% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.57 | 3m 4.81 | 12m 2.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.8% | 3m 26.9% | 12m 44.9%
Drawdown
Current -6.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.35 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (136d)99/19651% [44%-57%]+171.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/40% [0%-49%]-18.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.33 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (142d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1397d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1397d)290/60248% [44%-52%]+62.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/40% [0%-49%]-18.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.24 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.