The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-27 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
Short-term rates at +2.88σ extension with normal yield curve and low geo transmission
2-day forecastShort-term rates likely to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if data prints neutral and VIX stays under 20, with ^IRX dropping below current levels as primary trigger.
Watch
  • ^IRX falls below 4.0
  • 10Y-2Y spread widens past 50bp
  • Consumer sentiment rebounds above 46
36% [n=11] Brier 0.297
Financial↘62%
SOXX/AMD/IWM at 2.3-2.5σ extensions after +31pp bullish direction change
2-day forecastFinancials likely to pull back over next 2 sessions via mean reversion if breadth momentum stays below -5 or VIX rises above 19.5.
Watch
  • SOXX < 5d avg
  • IWM declines >0.8%
  • VIX crosses 19.5
25% [n=12] Brier 0.306
Commodity↗58%
PDBC -2.07σ with crude at 30d lows and stable regime geo risk 0.38
2-day forecastCommodities expected to stabilize or rise modestly over next 2 sessions if no hotspot escalation, with crude holding above 68 as base case.
Watch
  • Crude >69.5
  • Gold holds 4050
  • No negative supply disruption news
8% [n=12] Brier 0.385
Currency↗67%
EURUSD at -2.39σ extension with limited rate differential shift
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to mean-revert higher over next 2 sessions if equity vol does not accelerate and DXY eases, targeting relief above 1.145.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.145
  • USDJPY <161
  • VIX fails to hold 20
33% [n=12] Brier 0.288
Crypto↗54%
BTC near 60k with neutral 1d move amid high 2.28 dispersion and equity alerts
2-day forecastCrypto likely to drift slightly higher over next 2 sessions if financial pullback is mild and ETF flows stable, provided BTC holds 59500.
Watch
  • BTC >61000
  • Funding rate neutral
  • No equity gap lower >1%
42% [n=12] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Short-term rates at +2.88σ extension with normal yield curve and low geo transmission
Financial↘
SOXX/AMD/IWM at 2.3-2.5σ extensions after +31pp bullish direction change
Commodity↗
PDBC -2.07σ with crude at 30d lows and stable regime geo risk 0.38
Currency↗
EURUSD at -2.39σ extension with limited rate differential shift
Crypto↗
BTC near 60k with neutral 1d move amid high 2.28 dispersion and equity alerts

Signals

0 Critical
7 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^IRX equity $3.66 $3.66 +2.88σ 60d alert LONG
SOXX equity $625.20 $625.20 +2.49σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $532.57 $532.57 +2.42σ 252d alert LONG
EURUSD=X * equity $1.14 $1.14 -2.39σ 252d alert SHORT
IWM equity $294.57 $298.91 +2.34σ 252d alert LONG
ALB * equity $141.05 $141.05 -2.20σ 60d alert SHORT
PDBC equity $16.11 $16.11 -2.07σ 60d alert SHORT
TSM equity $434.99 $434.99 +1.85σ 252d watch LONG
NVDA equity $195.74 $195.74 -1.84σ 30d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.45 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.15 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$6 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 16.6% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$3.25
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 29.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.46

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Middle East proxy tensions and Ukraine ceasefire talks exhibit low transmission into traded markets, with primary effects confined to oil and natgas futures while FX safe-haven flows and rates show negligible orthogonal confirmation. Second-order cascades remain muted as diplomatic signaling and physical flow data point to contained risk.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict with threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine frontline stalemate coupled with active ceasefire negotiations

natgasfxrisk_assets
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan amid US diplomatic visits

fxrates
USDJPY=X, TLT
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk medium high

Collapse of Ukraine talks prompting full Russian natgas cutoff to Europe

Invalidate if: Interim energy agreement or surge in European LNG imports confirmed by freight data

Hotspot calibration: 57/79 hits (72%), Brier 0.243 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-27

Finance View — Three Sheets

Disagreement — size down
Cash Flow −1 risk-off
3/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -1.00
EURUSD=X: z=-1.58; USDJPY=X: z=+1.40; CNY=X: z=+1.72
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) +1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=+2.10
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-5 MOVE index z-score +1.00
^MOVE: z21=-1.80
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF-1, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-06-27

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.01 | 3m 4.21 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 39.3% | 3m 28.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -4.6% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.00 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 9% | High-Vol 41% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.01 | 3m 5.02 | 12m 2.88
Rolling Volatility
1m 39.3% | 3m 27.2% | 12m 44.9%
Drawdown
Current -4.6% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.35 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (137d)100/19651% [44%-58%]+177.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/70% [0%-35%]-34.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.37 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (143d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1398d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1398d)291/60248% [44%-52%]+64.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/70% [0%-35%]-34.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.25 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.