The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-28 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗62%
Yields at ALERT/WATCH extremes (^TNX -1.85σ DOWN, ^IRX +1.87σ UP) with normal curve and front-end easing impulse
2-day forecastYields likely to mean-revert higher over next 2 sessions if data prints in-line or stronger, with 10Y expected to test 4.45% on any NFP strength or real-yield pickup.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.40%
  • 2s/10s spread narrows 5bp or more
  • NFP surprise >+50k
42% [n=12] Brier 0.285
Financial↗58%
Breadth expansion setup with IWM +2.35σ UP and Russell +3.5% 30d while NVDA -1.99σ DOWN favoring small-caps over AI per thesis
2-day forecastSmall caps and financials likely to extend outperformance over next 2 sessions if dispersion stays above 2.0 and VIX does not spike, with IWM expected to hold gains if SPX weakness is contained.
Watch
  • Russell2000 beats SPX by >0.5%
  • VIX closes below 18.0
  • Semiconductor dispersion widens >5%
25% [n=12] Brier 0.306
Commodity↗70%
Commodities at statistical extremes (PDBC -2.26σ DOWN, lithium -24.5% 30d) with persistent disinflation pressure
2-day forecastCommodities likely to exhibit mean-reversion bounce over next 2 sessions if no geopolitical escalation, with crude expected to test $71 if China demand signals emerge or supply news remains contained.
Watch
  • Crude holds above $68.00
  • Copper rises >1.0%
  • No new ME/Ukraine disruption headlines
8% [n=12] Brier 0.385
Currency↗65%
EURUSD at -2.39σ DOWN extreme with stable rate differentials and contained EM stress
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to rebound over next 2 sessions if real-yield spreads do not widen and US data softens, expecting test of 1.155 if DXY fails to break higher.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.145
  • US 10Y real yield falls >5bp
  • USDCNY remains below 6.82
33% [n=12] Brier 0.288
Crypto↗54%
BTC stabilizing with -6.2% 5d pullback amid high equity dispersion and AMD +2.27σ UP
2-day forecastBitcoin likely to consolidate with mild upside bias over next 2 sessions if equity breadth holds and funding rates stay neutral, expecting 59500-62500 range barring VIX spike.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 59500
  • ETH/BTC ratio stable above 0.045
  • VIX closes below 19.0
42% [n=12] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
Yields at ALERT/WATCH extremes (^TNX -1.85σ DOWN, ^IRX +1.87σ UP) with normal curve and front-end easing impulse
Financial↗
Breadth expansion setup with IWM +2.35σ UP and Russell +3.5% 30d while NVDA -1.99σ DOWN favoring small-caps over AI per thesis
Commodity↗
Commodities at statistical extremes (PDBC -2.26σ DOWN, lithium -24.5% 30d) with persistent disinflation pressure
Currency↗
EURUSD at -2.39σ DOWN extreme with stable rate differentials and contained EM stress
Crypto↗
BTC stabilizing with -6.2% 5d pullback amid high equity dispersion and AMD +2.27σ UP

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
ALB equity $133.70 $133.70 -2.45σ 60d alert SHORT
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -2.39σ 252d alert SHORT
IWM equity $294.57 $299.83 +2.35σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $521.58 $521.58 +2.27σ 252d alert LONG
PDBC * equity $15.87 $15.87 -2.26σ 60d alert SHORT
NVDA * equity $192.53 $192.53 -1.99σ 30d watch SHORT
^IRX equity $3.66 $3.66 +1.87σ 60d watch LONG
^TNX * equity $4.37 $4.37 -1.85σ 30d watch SHORT
TSM equity $432.35 $432.35 +1.78σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.32 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.14 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$6 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 16.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$3.25
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.3% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.60

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Middle East proxy conflicts and Ukraine energy threats show persistent but contained transmission to oil and natgas channels; independent futures curves and options skews reflect low risk premia with active diplomatic tracks capping escalation in the 7-30 day window.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow war with Houthi attacks on Gulf shipping

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine stalemate with threats to European natgas infrastructure

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese naval maneuvers near Taiwan amid US alliance drills

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Coordinated state cyber attacks on European energy grids escalating winter natgas shortage

Invalidate if: Independent cyber monitoring shows no anomalous activity and intelligence confirms de-escalatory signaling

Hotspot calibration: 60/83 hits (72%), Brier 0.243 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-28

Finance View — Three Sheets

Disagreement — size down
Cash Flow −1 risk-off
3/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) -1.00
EURUSD=X: z=-1.58; USDJPY=X: z=+1.40; CNY=X: z=+1.72
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) +1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=+2.17
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-4 Fed balance sheet 4w Δ +0.93
WALCL: 4w Δ +0.466%
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF-1, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-06-28

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.41 | 3m 3.92 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 40.3% | 3m 28.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -6.2% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.96 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 8% | High-Vol 42% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.41 | 3m 4.69 | 12m 2.84
Rolling Volatility
1m 40.3% | 3m 27.6% | 12m 45.0%
Drawdown
Current -6.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.28 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 31% | High-Vol 19% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (137d)101/20050% [44%-57%]+159.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-32.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.23 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (144d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1399d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1399d)292/60648% [44%-52%]+59.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-32.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.21 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.