The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-29 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘60%
Normal curve with declining vol gauges and weak sentiment sets up for modest front-end easing bias
2-day forecastYields likely to drift lower over next 2 sessions if consumer sentiment stays below 45 and no NFP surprise, with 10Y testing toward 4.30% on disinflation signals.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks below 4.35
  • MOVE index <65
  • Consumer sentiment print confirms <45
46% [n=13] Brier 0.272
Financial↗58%
IWM +2.35σ and AMD +2.27σ UP versus NVDA -1.99σ sets up for breadth continuation over AI leadership
2-day forecastSmall caps and defensives likely to outperform if IWM holds above 299 and VIX stays below 19 over next 2 sessions, broadening participation.
Watch
  • IWM 2d return >+0.5%
  • NVDA lags SPX by >0.5%
  • Healthcare sector >+1%
31% [n=13] Brier 0.296
Commodity↗72%
PDBC -2.26σ DOWN and broad -9.8% 30d sets up for near-term mean reversion within persistent disinflation trend
2-day forecastCommodity prices likely to stabilize or rebound modestly over next 2 sessions if no supply disruption news, with crude holding above 68 unless geo escalates.
Watch
  • PDBC 2d return >-0.5%
  • Crude above $68.50
  • No confirmed Hormuz disruption
8% [n=13] Brier 0.390
Currency↗70%
EURUSD -2.62σ DOWN with stable geo risk and normal curve sets up for mean reversion higher
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to recover if rate differentials do not widen and sentiment data reinforces soft landing over next 2 sessions, targeting above 1.145.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.145
  • USDJPY holds below 163
  • 10Y-2Y spread >40bp
31% [n=13] Brier 0.297
Crypto→55%
BTC near flat with declining 30d returns and equity dispersion sets up for neutral trading tied to rates and breadth
2-day forecastCrypto expected to trade neutrally if VIX falls below 18 and breadth persists, but likely to lag if AI proxies rebound over next 2 sessions.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 59000
  • VIX <18.5
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
38% [n=13] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Normal curve with declining vol gauges and weak sentiment sets up for modest front-end easing bias
Financial↗
IWM +2.35σ and AMD +2.27σ UP versus NVDA -1.99σ sets up for breadth continuation over AI leadership
Commodity↗
PDBC -2.26σ DOWN and broad -9.8% 30d sets up for near-term mean reversion within persistent disinflation trend
Currency↗
EURUSD -2.62σ DOWN with stable geo risk and normal curve sets up for mean reversion higher
Crypto→
BTC near flat with declining 30d returns and equity dispersion sets up for neutral trading tied to rates and breadth

Signals

0 Critical
6 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -2.62σ 252d alert SHORT
ALB equity $133.70 $133.70 -2.45σ 60d alert SHORT
IWM equity $294.57 $299.83 +2.35σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $521.58 $521.58 +2.27σ 252d alert LONG
PDBC equity $15.87 $15.87 -2.26σ 60d alert SHORT
SOXX * equity $589.94 $589.94 +2.10σ 252d alert LONG
NVDA equity $192.53 $192.53 -1.99σ 30d watch SHORT
^IRX * equity $3.66 $3.66 +1.87σ 60d watch LONG
TSM equity $432.35 $432.35 +1.78σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.57 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.14 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$6 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 16.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$2.92
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.34

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Transmission from Middle East and Eastern European flashpoints to energy channels stays contained with muted futures backwardation and stable risk gauges; diplomatic signaling and substitute supply flows point to low immediate coupling into rates or broad FX.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy clashes with rhetoric around Strait of Hormuz but no confirmed attacks on shipping

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe medium

Russian tactical gains in Ukraine raising winter natgas supply concerns for Europe

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
East Asia low

Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan amid upcoming elections, testing US commitment

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk medium high

Coordinated cyber disruption of European LNG terminals amplifying natgas spike into rates selloff

Invalidate if: Independent satellite and on-chain freight data show steady flows plus accelerated EU storage builds confirming substitution capacity

Hotspot calibration: 64/87 hits (74%), Brier 0.242 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-29

Finance View — Three Sheets

Disagreement — size down
Cash Flow −1 risk-off
3/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.55
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) +1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=+2.17
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-4 Fed balance sheet 4w Δ +0.93
WALCL: 4w Δ +0.466%
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF-1, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-06-29

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.59 | 3m 4.05 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.1% | 3m 27.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -6.2% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.95 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 9% | High-Vol 41% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.59 | 3m 4.86 | 12m 2.85
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.1% | 3m 26.6% | 12m 44.8%
Drawdown
Current -6.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.29 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (137d)100/20250% [43%-56%]+163.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-32.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.26 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (145d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1400d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1400d)291/60848% [44%-52%]+61.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-32.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.22 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.