The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-06-30 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘57%
Normal curve with ^IRX +1.87σ UP and weak consumer sentiment sets up for modest front-end easing without curve steepening
2-day forecastYields are likely to ease over next 2 sessions if consumer sentiment data confirms disinflation, with 10y expected below 4.35% and 2s/10s holding above 40bp
Watch
  • ^IRX closes below 1.80σ
  • 10y yield breaks below 4.30%
  • consumer sentiment print <43
38% [n=16] Brier 0.296
Financial↘62%
IWM +2.26σ / SOXX +2.30σ / AMD +2.39σ UP with NVDA -1.70σ DOWN and breadth momentum -5 sets up for mean reversion in extended small-cap rally
2-day forecastFinancials and breadth proxies are expected to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if momentum velocity stays negative, with SPX lagging on any dispersion above 2.0
Watch
  • IWM closes below +1.5σ
  • VIX rises above 18.5
  • breadth momentum < -6
31% [n=16] Brier 0.298
Commodity↗65%
PDBC -2.18σ / ALB -2.49σ DOWN with broad -10.6% 30d and stable geo risk sets up for mean-reversion stabilization in industrial/energy softness
2-day forecastCommodities are likely to rebound over next 2 sessions on mean reversion if no supply disruption news, with copper holding above 6.10 and broad index above 15.60
Watch
  • PDBC closes above -1.5σ
  • crude holds above 69.50
  • China demand print > consensus
6% [n=16] Brier 0.392
Currency↗64%
EURUSD -2.37σ DOWN with flattening developed-FX path and stable rate differentials sets up for mean reversion in line with disinflation thesis
2-day forecastEURUSD is expected to mean-revert higher over next 2 sessions if real-yield spreads do not widen, targeting 1.145+ if VIX stays below 18
Watch
  • EURUSD closes above -1.5σ
  • USDJPY above 163.5 triggers profit-taking
  • 10y real yield <1.8%
25% [n=16] Brier 0.320
Crypto↘53%
BTC -4.1% 30d with negative momentum and decoupling from AMD/TSMC strength sets up for consolidation amid equity mean-reversion risks
2-day forecastCrypto is likely to stabilize with mild downside bias over next 2 sessions unless ETF flows turn positive, with BTC holding above 57k if equity breadth does not collapse
Watch
  • BTC breaks below 57k
  • ETH/BTC dominance rises >0.5pp
  • VIX >19 triggers risk-off
31% [n=16] Brier 0.263

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Normal curve with ^IRX +1.87σ UP and weak consumer sentiment sets up for modest front-end easing without curve steepening
Financial↘
IWM +2.26σ / SOXX +2.30σ / AMD +2.39σ UP with NVDA -1.70σ DOWN and breadth momentum -5 sets up for mean reversion in extended small-cap rally
Commodity↗
PDBC -2.18σ / ALB -2.49σ DOWN with broad -10.6% 30d and stable geo risk sets up for mean-reversion stabilization in industrial/energy softness
Currency↗
EURUSD -2.37σ DOWN with flattening developed-FX path and stable rate differentials sets up for mean reversion in line with disinflation thesis
Crypto↘
BTC -4.1% 30d with negative momentum and decoupling from AMD/TSMC strength sets up for consolidation amid equity mean-reversion risks

Signals

0 Critical
7 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
ALB equity $129.72 $129.72 -2.49σ 60d alert SHORT
AMD equity $539.49 $539.49 +2.39σ 252d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -2.37σ 252d alert SHORT
SOXX equity $614.35 $614.35 +2.30σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $298.97 +2.26σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $455.10 $455.10 +2.19σ 252d alert LONG
PDBC equity $15.84 $15.84 -2.18σ 60d alert SHORT
^IRX equity $3.66 $3.66 +1.87σ 60d watch LONG
NVDA equity $194.97 $194.97 -1.70σ 30d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.55 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.14 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$7 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 17.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$2.88
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.38

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

State-level tensions in the Middle East and Western Pacific remain elevated but transmission to core markets is muted by strategic reflexivity and pre-pricing; emerging de-escalation signals in Eastern Europe via indirect negotiations cap near-term convexity in energy and risk assets over the 7-30 day horizon.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy conflicts threatening Strait of Hormuz shipping

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine conflict showing signs of fatigue with diplomatic overtures

natgasrisk_assets
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
East Asia medium

Heightened China-Taiwan military posturing and US freedom of navigation operations

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 21d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic conflict between Iran and Israel disrupting 20% of global oil supply

Invalidate if: Backchannel diplomacy results in mutual de-escalation and renewed nuclear framework agreement

Hotspot calibration: 68/92 hits (74%), Brier 0.236 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-06-30

Finance View — Three Sheets

Disagreement — size down
Cash Flow −1 risk-off
3/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.99
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
4/6 positive 21d (pct=0.67); top=XLV (cyclical-led); XLV:+7.0%, XLF:+5.1%, XLU:+3.8%, XLP:+0.6%, XLK:-0.7%, XLE:-5.2%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.83, z=+1.89
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF-1, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-06-30

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.24 | 3m 3.88 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.2% | 3m 27.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -6.7% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.84 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 9% | High-Vol 41% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.24 | 3m 4.71 | 12m 3.05
Rolling Volatility
1m 38.2% | 3m 26.6% | 12m 44.3%
Drawdown
Current -6.7% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.21 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (140d)100/20250% [43%-56%]+163.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/475% [30%-95%]+4.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.26 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (146d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1401d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1401d)291/60848% [44%-52%]+61.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/475% [30%-95%]+4.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.22 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.