The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-02 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘62%
Mixed ALERT signals (^IRX +1.87σ UP, ^TNX -1.85σ DOWN) with stable geo risk and normal curve set up for short-rate mean reversion.
2-day forecastShort-term rates likely to decline over next 2 sessions if sentiment data confirms easing path, with 10Y yields stable unless NFP surprises higher.
Watch
  • ^IRX falls >5bp
  • 10Y-2Y spread holds >70bp
  • No hot CPI surprise
33% [n=18] Brier 0.302
Financial↘59%
ALERT up-moves in IWM (+2.20σ), AMD (+2.31σ), SOXX (+2.09σ) after 5d gains indicate 2σ+ mean-reversion setup vs negative breadth momentum.
2-day forecastBroad equity indices likely to consolidate or pull back over next 2 sessions if dispersion stays elevated and VIX rises above 17, favoring defensives.
Watch
  • IWM < 5d avg
  • VIX >17
  • Tech rotation to healthcare/financials
33% [n=18] Brier 0.296
Commodity↗68%
PDBC -2.03σ and ALB -1.94σ DOWN with broad -11.7% 30d and low geo transmission align with disinflation persistence.
2-day forecastCommodity complex likely to stabilize or see mild rebound over next 2 sessions if no escalation in hotspots, with crude sensitive to supply prints.
Watch
  • PDBC > +1.0%
  • Crude holds >$66
  • No Middle East escalation news
11% [n=18] Brier 0.376
Currency↘64%
EURUSD -2.07σ DOWN with stable rate differentials and low geo risk sets up for mean reversion higher in EURUSD.
2-day forecastUSD likely to weaken vs EUR over next 2 sessions if risk tone holds and no hawkish data, producing flatter path vs developed FX.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.15
  • USDJPY <160
  • DXY fails to break recent highs
28% [n=18] Brier 0.319
Crypto↗55%
BTC mild +2.8% 5d momentum in stable geo regime and high equity dispersion without clear sigma signal.
2-day forecastCrypto expected to consolidate with slight upside bias over next 2 sessions if equity breadth holds, but capped by any tech pullback.
Watch
  • BTC >60000
  • Stable perpetual funding
  • ETH/BTC ratio holds
28% [n=18] Brier 0.264

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Mixed ALERT signals (^IRX +1.87σ UP, ^TNX -1.85σ DOWN) with stable geo risk and normal curve set up for short-rate mean reversion.
Financial↘
ALERT up-moves in IWM (+2.20σ), AMD (+2.31σ), SOXX (+2.09σ) after 5d gains indicate 2σ+ mean-reversion setup vs negative breadth momentum.
Commodity↗
PDBC -2.03σ and ALB -1.94σ DOWN with broad -11.7% 30d and low geo transmission align with disinflation persistence.
Currency↘
EURUSD -2.07σ DOWN with stable rate differentials and low geo risk sets up for mean reversion higher in EURUSD.
Crypto↗
BTC mild +2.8% 5d momentum in stable geo regime and high equity dispersion without clear sigma signal.

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
AMD equity $540.88 $540.88 +2.31σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $299.32 +2.20σ 252d alert LONG
SOXX equity $599.70 $599.70 +2.09σ 252d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -2.07σ 252d alert SHORT
PDBC * equity $15.78 $15.78 -2.03σ 60d alert SHORT
ALB equity $136.08 $136.08 -1.94σ 60d watch SHORT
TSM equity $444.23 $444.23 +1.91σ 252d watch LONG
^IRX equity $3.66 $3.66 +1.87σ 60d watch LONG
^TNX * equity $4.37 $4.37 -1.85σ 30d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.80 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$7 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 17.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$3.45
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.12

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Middle East proxy conflicts and Ukraine stalemate show contained transmission to energy channels while Indo-Pacific naval posturing remains rhetorical; market pricing and diplomatic signaling indicate limited cascade risk to commodities, FX, and risk assets over 7-30 days.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow war and Houthi Red Sea shipping attacks

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Frozen Ukraine conflict with seasonal risks to European natgas flows

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
Indo-Pacific low

South China Sea incidents between China, Philippines, and US patrols

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 21d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic strikes between Israel and Iran closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Successful backchannel diplomacy or mutual pullback of naval assets signals de-escalation equilibrium

Hotspot calibration: 73/101 hits (72%), Brier 0.237 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-02

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-on
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -1.00
AUDUSD=X: -3.84%; CADUSD=X: -2.54%; NZDUSD=X: -4.08%; BRLUSD=X: -3.61%
Income +1 risk-on
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
4/6 positive 21d (pct=0.67); top=XLV (cyclical-led); XLV:+8.4%, XLF:+6.9%, XLU:+4.5%, XLP:+2.3%, XLK:-5.1%, XLE:-7.2%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-4 Fed balance sheet 4w Δ +0.93
WALCL: 4w Δ +0.466%
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-02

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.99 | 3m 5.72 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 39.1% | 3m 28.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current 0.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.81 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 9% | High-Vol 41% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 7.99 | 3m 6.65 | 12m 3.33
Rolling Volatility
1m 39.1% | 3m 27.8% | 12m 44.4%
Drawdown
Current 0.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.93 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (142d)104/20750% [43%-57%]+201.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/850% [22%-78%]+15.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.47 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (148d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1403d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1403d)295/61348% [44%-52%]+74.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/850% [22%-78%]+15.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.30 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.