The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-04 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘57%
Normal curve with 10Y at -1.85σ and front-end elevated as disinflation signals persist without geo shocks
2-day forecastLong-term yields likely to drift lower over next 2 sessions if consumer sentiment prints below 48 and no NFP surprise above 180k, keeping spread above 65bp and supporting duration defensives.
Watch
  • 10Y yield falls below 4.30
  • 2s/10s spread widens above 75bp
  • MOVE index drops below 65
32% [n=19] Brier 0.303
Financial↗56%
IWM/AMD at +2.07σ/+2.06σ ALERT with RUT and defensives leading vs lagging AI proxies and contracting breadth
2-day forecastEquity breadth likely to expand over next 2 sessions with Russell 2000 and financials/healthcare outperforming NDX if VIX holds below 17 and dispersion above 1.8.
Watch
  • RUT/SPX ratio rises >0.5%
  • Financials sector beats tech by 0.8%
  • VIX closes below 16.5
32% [n=19] Brier 0.301
Commodity↘55%
Industrial commodities at -1.84σ WATCH (PDBC/copper/lithium soft 30d) with stable geo risk capping supply shocks
2-day forecastCommodity complex expected to remain soft over next 2 sessions with crude and copper drifting lower if USD holds and China demand prints neutral, unless coffee/sugar momentum reverses.
Watch
  • Crude oil closes below 68
  • Copper falls below 6.10
  • Broad commodity index -0.5% or more
16% [n=19] Brier 0.362
Currency↗58%
EURUSD at -1.78σ WATCH with USD strength but commodity currencies stabilizing and rate differentials narrowing
2-day forecastUSD likely to moderate vs developed FX over next 2 sessions with EURUSD rebounding above 1.145 if risk sentiment holds and real-yield spreads compress.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.145
  • USDJPY falls below 160
  • DXY declines 0.4% or more
26% [n=19] Brier 0.323
Crypto→54%
BTC showing +4% 5d resilience amid low VIX and mixed AI proxies with no dominant ETF flow signal
2-day forecastCrypto expected to consolidate over next 2 sessions with BTC holding 61000-64000 range if equity breadth persists, but any USD rebound triggers pullback.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 61000
  • BTC dominance stable near 52%
  • Perpetual funding rate remains neutral
26% [n=19] Brier 0.263

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Normal curve with 10Y at -1.85σ and front-end elevated as disinflation signals persist without geo shocks
Financial↗
IWM/AMD at +2.07σ/+2.06σ ALERT with RUT and defensives leading vs lagging AI proxies and contracting breadth
Commodity↘
Industrial commodities at -1.84σ WATCH (PDBC/copper/lithium soft 30d) with stable geo risk capping supply shocks
Currency↗
EURUSD at -1.78σ WATCH with USD strength but commodity currencies stabilizing and rate differentials narrowing
Crypto→
BTC showing +4% 5d resilience amid low VIX and mixed AI proxies with no dominant ETF flow signal

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
7 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
IWM equity $294.57 $297.58 +2.07σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $517.82 $517.82 +2.06σ 252d alert LONG
ALB equity $135.56 $135.56 -1.87σ 60d watch SHORT
^IRX equity $3.66 $3.66 +1.87σ 60d watch LONG
^TNX equity $4.37 $4.37 -1.85σ 30d watch SHORT
PDBC equity $15.87 $15.87 -1.84σ 60d watch SHORT
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.78σ 252d watch SHORT
SOXX equity $566.32 $566.32 +1.74σ 252d watch LONG
TSM equity $434.16 $434.16 +1.69σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.85 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.18 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$7 · 4d
exposure $184 · 1 position · σ 17.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$1.86
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.5% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.06

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Diplomatic channels remain active in Ukraine and the Middle East, capping transmission from proxy incidents and regional drills primarily to oil and safe-haven flows; second-order effects on natgas and funding currencies stay muted absent fresh supply shocks.

Middle East medium

Intermittent Houthi incidents in Red Sea and Iran proxy probes despite fragile truce monitoring

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F
horizon: 12d
Eastern Europe high

Stalemate along Ukraine front with credible backchannel ceasefire proposals

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific medium

Routine Chinese naval drills near Taiwan without blockade rhetoric

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 18d
Top tail risk low severe

Unexpected Israeli strike on Iranian facilities triggering supply outage

Invalidate if: Visible progress in indirect US-Iran talks or sustained decline in oil implied volatility

Hotspot calibration: 77/107 hits (72%), Brier 0.238 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-04

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -1.00
AUDUSD=X: -2.65%; CADUSD=X: -2.06%; NZDUSD=X: -2.69%; BRLUSD=X: -2.06%
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.67
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-5 MOVE index z-score +0.83
^MOVE: z21=-1.24
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-04

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 1.56 | 3m 3.87 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 39.1% | 3m 30.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -8.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.93 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 10% | High-Vol 40% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 1.56 | 3m 4.65 | 12m 3.02
Rolling Volatility
1m 39.1% | 3m 29.7% | 12m 44.7%
Drawdown
Current -8.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.15 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (144d)103/21049% [42%-56%]+168.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/757% [25%-84%]-10.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.25 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (150d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1405d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1405d)294/61648% [44%-52%]+64.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/757% [25%-84%]-10.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.23 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.