The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-05 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗55%
TNX at +1.52σ watch with normal curve and stable 0.52 geo risk sets up for sticky long yields amid front-end easing signals.
2-day forecastLong yields likely to edge higher over next 2 sessions if data prints in-line with expectations; expect 10Y to test 4.55 if NFP exceeds 200k or CPI confirms stickiness, otherwise stable range if consumer sentiment weakness persists.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.55
  • NFP print >200k
  • 2s/10s spread narrows 5bp
32% [n=19] Brier 0.303
Financial↗59%
IWM/AMD at +2.06σ alert with financials/healthcare 30d outperformance and contracting breadth momentum sets up for continued rotation.
2-day forecastEquity breadth likely to expand over next 2 sessions with small-caps and cyclicals outperforming if dispersion holds; expect SPX to test 750 and IWM relative strength if VIX stays below 17.
Watch
  • IWM holds above 295
  • VIX remains below 17
  • financials sector outperforms NDX by 0.5%
32% [n=19] Brier 0.301
Commodity↘60%
Broad commodities -11.7% 30d with ALB -1.87σ and crude -26.7% sets up for continued industrial softness unless geo hotspots escalate.
2-day forecastIndustrial commodity prices likely to remain soft or test lower over next 2 sessions if no supply disruption news; expect copper below 6.00 and broad index -0.5% if China demand prints weak.
Watch
  • crude holds below 69.50
  • copper breaks below 6.00
  • no Hormuz shipping disruption signals
16% [n=19] Brier 0.362
Currency↘56%
EURUSD at -1.78σ with commodity currencies weak and stable geo risk sets up for USD flattening vs developed FX.
2-day forecastUSD likely to soften modestly over next 2 sessions against EUR if rate differentials narrow; expect EURUSD to test 1.145 if risk sentiment holds and BOJ signals remain neutral.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.142
  • 10Y real yield falls 3bp
  • DXY fails to hold 98
26% [n=19] Brier 0.323
Crypto↗54%
BTC +4.0% 5d with equity breadth signals and moderate dispersion sets up for selective risk-on continuation.
2-day forecastCrypto likely to see mild upside over next 2 sessions if equity breadth persists; expect BTC above 63000 if funding rates stay neutral and ETF flows remain positive.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 61000
  • VIX below 17
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
26% [n=19] Brier 0.263

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
TNX at +1.52σ watch with normal curve and stable 0.52 geo risk sets up for sticky long yields amid front-end easing signals.
Financial↗
IWM/AMD at +2.06σ alert with financials/healthcare 30d outperformance and contracting breadth momentum sets up for continued rotation.
Commodity↘
Broad commodities -11.7% 30d with ALB -1.87σ and crude -26.7% sets up for continued industrial softness unless geo hotspots escalate.
Currency↘
EURUSD at -1.78σ with commodity currencies weak and stable geo risk sets up for USD flattening vs developed FX.
Crypto↗
BTC +4.0% 5d with equity breadth signals and moderate dispersion sets up for selective risk-on continuation.

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
IWM equity $294.57 $297.58 +2.06σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $517.82 $517.82 +2.06σ 252d alert LONG
ALB * equity $135.56 $135.56 -1.87σ 60d watch SHORT
EURUSD=X * equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.78σ 252d watch SHORT
SOXX equity $566.32 $566.32 +1.74σ 252d watch LONG
TSM equity $434.16 $434.16 +1.69σ 252d watch LONG
^TNX * equity $4.49 $4.49 +1.52σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.87 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.19 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$7 · 4d
exposure $184 · 1 position · σ 17.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$1.86
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.5% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.04

Geopolitical Risk

0.52 stable

Persistent state tensions in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific transmit modestly into oil and safe-haven FX with second-order risk-asset pressure, but orthogonal market signals (futures curves, vol surfaces) show muted coupling and active diplomatic channels support de-escalation equilibria over the 7-30 day horizon.

Persian Gulf medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict with threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping

oilfx
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Ukraine frontline stalemate coupled with Russian natgas infrastructure signaling

natgasrisk_assets
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan amid US arms transit

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic conflict closing Strait of Hormuz for >7 days

Invalidate if: Visible de-escalation via renewed US-Iran backchannel talks or verifiable reduction in naval deployments

Hotspot calibration: 81/111 hits (73%), Brier 0.239 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-05

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -1.00
AUDUSD=X: -2.65%; CADUSD=X: -2.06%; NZDUSD=X: -2.69%; BRLUSD=X: -2.06%
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.67
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-5 MOVE index z-score +0.94
^MOVE: z21=-1.41
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-05

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 1.56 | 3m 3.87 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 39.1% | 3m 30.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -8.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.93 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 10% | High-Vol 40% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 1.56 | 3m 4.65 | 12m 3.02
Rolling Volatility
1m 39.1% | 3m 29.7% | 12m 44.7%
Drawdown
Current -8.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.15 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (144d)103/21049% [42%-56%]+168.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/520% [4%-62%]-7.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.25 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (151d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1406d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1406d)294/61648% [44%-52%]+64.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/520% [4%-62%]-7.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.23 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.