The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-06 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘62%
10Y yields at +1.51σ watch level with normal curve, stable 0.38 geo risk and anchored fed funds
2-day forecastYields likely to mean revert lower over next 2 sessions if ^TNX remains above +1.5σ, with any de-escalation leaks from Eastern Europe/Middle East hotspots triggering dip toward 4.40%.
Watch
  • ^TNX drops below +1.0σ
  • 2s/10s spread narrows >5bp
  • VIX rises above 18
30% [n=20] Brier 0.307
Financial↘63%
Small caps (IWM/IJR +2.06-2.20σ) and AMD at alert UP with 71% bullish direction ratio but -7 breadth momentum
2-day forecastEquities likely to mean revert over next 2 sessions with small-cap outperformance fading if IWM sigma stays above +2.0, leading SPX to trade flat-to-lower on reduced breadth.
Watch
  • IWM falls below +1.0σ
  • Russell2000 underperforms SPX >0.8%
  • Financials sector reverses >1.5%
30% [n=20] Brier 0.303
Commodity↗54%
Grains surging (corn +13.2% 5d) offset by crude -28.5% 30d and ALB -1.87σ with low geo transmission
2-day forecastCommodity basket expected to stabilize mildly higher over next 2 sessions if no Hormuz disruption materializes and USD eases, with ag momentum continuing on supply prints.
Watch
  • Crude holds above 68
  • Corn gains >3%
  • Gold tests above 4200
15% [n=20] Brier 0.367
Currency↘61%
EURUSD at -1.91σ DOWN extreme with firm USDJPY and low EM stress in stable geo regime
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to rebound over next 2 sessions via mean reversion if it remains below 1.135, expecting USD to weaken on any positive risk data or central-bank divergence signals.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.145
  • USDJPY <161
  • DXY drops >0.4%
25% [n=20] Brier 0.328
Crypto↘54%
BTC -5.2% 30d with no direct sigma signal amid equity alert extremes and low funding tone
2-day forecastCrypto expected to follow equity mean reversion lower over next 2 sessions if BTC fails to reclaim 64000, with spot ETF flows or VIX spike as catalyst.
Watch
  • BTC <61000
  • ETH underperforms >2%
  • VIX >17.5
30% [n=20] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
10Y yields at +1.51σ watch level with normal curve, stable 0.38 geo risk and anchored fed funds
Financial↘
Small caps (IWM/IJR +2.06-2.20σ) and AMD at alert UP with 71% bullish direction ratio but -7 breadth momentum
Commodity↗
Grains surging (corn +13.2% 5d) offset by crude -28.5% 30d and ALB -1.87σ with low geo transmission
Currency↘
EURUSD at -1.91σ DOWN extreme with firm USDJPY and low EM stress in stable geo regime
Crypto↘
BTC -5.2% 30d with no direct sigma signal amid equity alert extremes and low funding tone

Signals

0 Critical
4 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
IHI * equity $51.88 $51.88 +2.46σ 30d alert LONG
IJR * equity $146.48 $146.48 +2.20σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $297.58 +2.06σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $517.82 $517.82 +2.06σ 252d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.91σ 252d watch SHORT
ALB equity $135.56 $135.56 -1.87σ 60d watch SHORT
SOXX equity $566.32 $566.32 +1.73σ 252d watch LONG
TSM equity $434.16 $434.16 +1.69σ 252d watch LONG
^TNX equity $4.49 $4.49 +1.51σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.86 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.18 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$7 · 4d
exposure $184 · 1 position · σ 17.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$2.17
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.06

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Diplomatic channels remain active across Ukraine and Middle East flashpoints with transmission largely confined to energy volatility and selective safe-haven flows; second-order effects on European rates and USD funding currencies stay muted absent physical supply shocks.

Eastern Europe medium

Russia-Ukraine frontline stalemate with intermittent ceasefire negotiation leaks

natgasrates
NG=F, TTF=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 18d
Middle East medium

Iran proxy activity near Strait of Hormuz paired with indirect nuclear talks

oilfx
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 12d
East Asia low

PLA naval drills around Taiwan with calibrated US response

risk_assetsfx
ES=F, USDJPY=X, TLT
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Hormuz for 5+ days

Invalidate if: Visible de-escalation via US-China coordinated diplomacy or rapid IAEA breakthrough

Hotspot calibration: 82/115 hits (71%), Brier 0.247 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-06

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow −1 risk-off
3/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -1.00
AUDUSD=X: -2.73%; CADUSD=X: -2.18%; NZDUSD=X: -3.12%; BRLUSD=X: -2.11%
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.67
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-5 MOVE index z-score +0.94
^MOVE: z21=-1.41
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF-1, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-06

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 1.58 | 3m 3.94 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 37.4% | 3m 29.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -7.4% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.00 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 12% | High-Vol 38% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 1.58 | 3m 4.74 | 12m 3.02
Rolling Volatility
1m 37.4% | 3m 29.0% | 12m 44.5%
Drawdown
Current -7.4% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.22 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (144d)103/21448% [42%-55%]+165.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/30% [0%-56%]-16.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.23 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (152d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1407d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1407d)294/62047% [44%-51%]+63.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/30% [0%-56%]-16.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.23 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.