The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-07 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘62%
10Y yields +1.51σ above 30d mean with normal curve and stable geo-risk capping transmission
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to decline over next 2 sessions toward mean if NFP prints below 175k and no hot CPI surprise, expecting reversion from current extreme
Watch
  • 10Y yield >4.55% fails to hold
  • 2s10s spread narrows below 30bp
  • NFP <150k
26% [n=23] Brier 0.311
Financial↘59%
Small caps at ALERT (+2.10σ IWM, +2.20σ IJR) with bullish bias streak=1 but breadth momentum contracting at -4
2-day forecastSmall caps likely to mean-revert lower relative to large caps over next 2 sessions if breadth momentum stays below -3, favoring consolidation in equities
Watch
  • IWM fails to hold above 300
  • VIX rises above 17.5
  • semiconductor relative strength breaks below 1.8σ
35% [n=23] Brier 0.298
Commodity↗55%
Crude and industrial metals at 30d lows (-25.7% crude, -20.3% lithium) with grains showing 5d strength amid stable geo transmission
2-day forecastCommodity complex expected to stabilize or edge higher over next 2 sessions if no Middle East supply disruption and China demand signals remain neutral, with crude holding key level
Watch
  • crude holds above 68.50
  • copper fails to break below 6.10
  • DXY rises above 102
17% [n=23] Brier 0.355
Currency↗58%
EURUSD at -1.77σ downside extreme with USDJPY elevated on rate differentials and stable risk regime
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to rebound modestly from extremes over next 2 sessions if equity breadth does not deteriorate further and ECB signals remain dovish, triggering mean reversion
Watch
  • EURUSD holds above 1.135
  • USDCNY rises above 6.85
  • 10Y real yield falls below 2.1%
22% [n=23] Brier 0.331
Crypto→53%
BTC showing -3.8% 30d lag to equities with low vol and neutral funding in stable geo regime
2-day forecastBTC expected to trade neutrally correlated to equities over next 2 sessions unless VIX spikes above 18, with mild upside bias if ETF flows remain positive
Watch
  • BTC holds above 62000
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
  • VIX remains below 17
30% [n=23] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
10Y yields +1.51σ above 30d mean with normal curve and stable geo-risk capping transmission
Financial↘
Small caps at ALERT (+2.10σ IWM, +2.20σ IJR) with bullish bias streak=1 but breadth momentum contracting at -4
Commodity↗
Crude and industrial metals at 30d lows (-25.7% crude, -20.3% lithium) with grains showing 5d strength amid stable geo transmission
Currency↗
EURUSD at -1.77σ downside extreme with USDJPY elevated on rate differentials and stable risk regime
Crypto→
BTC showing -3.8% 30d lag to equities with low vol and neutral funding in stable geo regime

Signals

0 Critical
5 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
IHI equity $51.87 $52.11 +2.44σ 30d alert LONG
AMD equity $552.05 $552.05 +2.32σ 252d alert LONG
IJR equity $146.83 $146.81 +2.20σ 252d alert LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $298.90 +2.10σ 252d alert LONG
TSM equity $451.79 $451.79 +2.00σ 252d alert LONG
ALB equity $133.80 $133.80 -1.86σ 60d watch SHORT
SOXX * equity $581.51 $581.51 +1.85σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.77σ 252d watch SHORT
^TNX equity $4.49 $4.49 +1.51σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.77 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.18 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,127 · 4d
exposure $30,216 · 3 positions · σ 18.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$140.18
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.14

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Diplomatic signaling and economic self-interest continue to cap transmission from ongoing state tensions in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Indo-Pacific; primary channels remain energy (oil/natgas) and safe-haven FX with muted second-order cascades observed in rates and risk assets so far.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy clashes and nuclear program deadlock

oilfx
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine winter energy leverage amid stalled frontline talks

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese naval drills and US-Taiwan defense coordination

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic strikes between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Resumption of backchannel diplomacy or verifiable de-escalation commitments by either party

Hotspot calibration: 84/119 hits (71%), Brier 0.245 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-07

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -0.68
7d net (n=6): $-2.04B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
4/6 positive 21d (pct=0.67); top=XLF (cyclical-led); XLF:+10.7%, XLV:+10.3%, XLU:+4.3%, XLP:+3.1%, XLK:-6.3%, XLE:-8.9%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-5 MOVE index z-score +0.94
^MOVE: z21=-1.41
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-07

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 0.56 | 3m 3.77 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 34.9% | 3m 29.8% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -6.8% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.01 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 14% | High-Vol 36% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 0.56 | 3m 4.52 | 12m 3.24
Rolling Volatility
1m 34.9% | 3m 28.9% | 12m 44.2%
Drawdown
Current -6.8% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.26 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 34% | High-Vol 16% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (147d)103/21448% [42%-55%]+165.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/850% [22%-78%]-17.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.23 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (153d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1408d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1408d)294/62047% [44%-51%]+63.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/850% [22%-78%]-17.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.23 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.