The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-08 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
TNX +1.76σ WATCH and normal curve with geo risk 0.48 stable setting up for mean-reversion lower given muted transmission
2-day forecastYields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if no Eastern Europe escalation, expecting 10Y to test below 4.45% on de-escalation signals or soft data prints.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks below 4.45%
  • No new refinery strike reports
  • 2s/10s spread widens >5bp
25% [n=24] Brier 0.314
Financial↗56%
Small caps IWM/IJR at +2σ ALERT within 78% bullish direction ratio but contracting breadth and VIX +12.9% 1d creating cautious setup
2-day forecastFinancials likely to post mild gains over next 2 sessions if direction ratio holds above 0.70 and VIX fails to sustain above 19, with IWM expected to lead.
Watch
  • Direction ratio >0.70
  • VIX fails to break 19
  • IWM holds +1.5σ
38% [n=24] Brier 0.291
Commodity↗76%
Lithium/ALB and rare earths at -1.98σ extremes (-21.9%/-16.4% 30d) with crude rebounding on hotspots but high inventories capping per GMT5
2-day forecastIndustrial metals likely to mean-revert higher over next 2 sessions if China demand signals emerge, with lithium expected to rise >3% on any positive tape confirmation.
Watch
  • Lithium >$132.50
  • Crude holds above $73
  • No escalation in Middle East proxies
21% [n=24] Brier 0.349
Currency↗55%
EURUSD at -1.72σ WATCH with USD supported by differentials and stable geo-risk regime offering de-escalation paths
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to stabilize or recover mildly over next 2 sessions if VIX retreats below 18 and no BOJ signals, testing toward 1.145 on risk-on tape.
Watch
  • VIX <18
  • EURUSD holds above 1.135
  • No new Indo-Pacific escalation
21% [n=24] Brier 0.333
Crypto↘54%
BTC -3.7% 30d lagging equities with VIX spike and no confirming ETF flow or on-chain bid per GMT5
2-day forecastCrypto likely to see mild continued pressure over next 2 sessions if equities weaken or VIX holds above 18, with BTC expected to test sub-61500.
Watch
  • BTC breaks below 61500
  • VIX sustains >18
  • Negative spot ETF flows
33% [n=24] Brier 0.258

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX +1.76σ WATCH and normal curve with geo risk 0.48 stable setting up for mean-reversion lower given muted transmission
Financial↗
Small caps IWM/IJR at +2σ ALERT within 78% bullish direction ratio but contracting breadth and VIX +12.9% 1d creating cautious setup
Commodity↗
Lithium/ALB and rare earths at -1.98σ extremes (-21.9%/-16.4% 30d) with crude rebounding on hotspots but high inventories capping per GMT5
Currency↗
EURUSD at -1.72σ WATCH with USD supported by differentials and stable geo-risk regime offering de-escalation paths
Crypto↘
BTC -3.7% 30d lagging equities with VIX spike and no confirming ETF flow or on-chain bid per GMT5

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
7 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
IHI equity $51.87 $52.25 +2.30σ 30d alert LONG
IJR equity $146.83 $145.39 +2.01σ 252d alert LONG
ALB equity $129.02 $129.02 -1.98σ 60d watch SHORT
AMD equity $516.11 $516.11 +1.98σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $296.19 +1.93σ 252d watch LONG
^TNX equity $4.53 $4.53 +1.76σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.72σ 252d watch SHORT
TSM equity $432.57 $432.57 +1.62σ 252d watch LONG
SOXX equity $551.69 $551.69 +1.56σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.41 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$1,127 · 4d
exposure $30,216 · 3 positions · σ 18.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$240.98
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.50

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Mid-2026 geopolitical tensions center on Eastern Europe energy infrastructure strikes, Middle East proxy incidents, and Indo-Pacific military drills, transmitting primarily into oil, natgas, and safe-haven FX/risk channels; independent tape confirmation remains muted with high inventories and anchored vols limiting cascades, while multiple diplomatic tracks offer de-escalation equilibria.

Eastern Europe medium

Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and natgas transit nodes

oilnatgas
CL=F, NG=F
horizon: 12d
Middle East medium

Israel-Hezbollah border clashes with Iranian proxy involvement

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific medium

Large-scale Chinese naval and air drills encircling Taiwan

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 10d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: Backchannel US-Iran talks produce interim confidence-building measures or observable pullback in proxy militia activity

Hotspot calibration: 85/123 hits (69%), Brier 0.246 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-08

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.92
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.38
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.99
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-5 MOVE index z-score +0.94
^MOVE: z21=-1.41
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-08

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.49 | 3m 4.71 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 30.6% | 3m 28.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -2.4% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.12 (assets: 21)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 20% | High-Vol 30% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 3.49 | 3m 5.46 | 12m 3.38
Rolling Volatility
1m 30.6% | 3m 27.6% | 12m 44.0%
Drawdown
Current -2.4% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.41 (assets: 37)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 35% | High-Vol 15% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (148d)105/21948% [41%-55%]+163.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-17.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.20 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (154d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1409d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1409d)296/62547% [43%-51%]+63.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-17.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.23 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.