The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-09 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
10Y yields at +1.97σ above 30d mean with normal curve and stable 0.42 geo risk setting up for mean-reversion pullback
2-day forecastYields likely to decline over next 2 sessions if TNX fails to break above 4.60, anchored by 77% mean-reversion base rate for 2σ+ moves [n=1686]
Watch
  • 10Y closes below 4.50
  • 2s/10s spread widens >5bp
  • MOVE index falls below 64
24% [n=25] Brier 0.317
Financial↘59%
Small caps (IJR +1.80σ) and AMD (+1.96σ) at WATCH highs amid 78% bullish direction ratio but -5 breadth momentum
2-day forecastFinancials likely to consolidate or pull back over next 2 sessions if Russell2000 fails to hold recent highs, as mean reversion occurs at 77% rate for 2σ+ signals [n=1686]
Watch
  • Russell2000 falls >0.8%
  • VIX rises above 18.0
  • breadth momentum drops below -7
40% [n=25] Brier 0.286
Commodity↗62%
Lithium/ALB at -1.87σ downside extreme while crude rebounds 7.7% over 5d in stable geo-risk regime
2-day forecastCommodity complex likely to see selective upside (metals rebound) over next 2 sessions if lithium rises >1%, driven by 77% mean-reversion base rate [n=1686] and limited supply shocks
Watch
  • Lithium gains >2%
  • Crude holds above 73.50
  • broad commodity index +1%
24% [n=25] Brier 0.343
Currency↗63%
EURUSD at -2.00σ extreme with contained 0.42 geo risk and diplomatic de-escalation signals
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to rebound over next 2 sessions if it holds above 1.135, per 77% mean-reversion rate on 2σ+ moves [n=1686] with de-escalation pathway
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.145
  • USDJPY fails to clear 163
  • USDCNY rises above 6.82
20% [n=25] Brier 0.333
Crypto→54%
BTC rangebound near 62600 with low volatility and stable equity correlation in low geo-risk environment
2-day forecastCrypto expected to trade neutrally with mild upside bias over next 2 sessions if BTC holds above 61000 and equity pullback is contained
Watch
  • BTC breaks above 64000
  • ETH/BTC ratio rises >1%
  • VIX stays below 18
32% [n=25] Brier 0.258

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
10Y yields at +1.97σ above 30d mean with normal curve and stable 0.42 geo risk setting up for mean-reversion pullback
Financial↘
Small caps (IJR +1.80σ) and AMD (+1.96σ) at WATCH highs amid 78% bullish direction ratio but -5 breadth momentum
Commodity↗
Lithium/ALB at -1.87σ downside extreme while crude rebounds 7.7% over 5d in stable geo-risk regime
Currency↗
EURUSD at -2.00σ extreme with contained 0.42 geo risk and diplomatic de-escalation signals
Crypto→
BTC rangebound near 62600 with low volatility and stable equity correlation in low geo-risk environment

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
7 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
EURUSD=X * equity $1.14 $1.14 -2.00σ 252d alert SHORT
^TNX * equity $4.57 $4.57 +1.97σ 252d watch LONG
AMD equity $517.41 $517.41 +1.96σ 252d watch LONG
ALB * equity $129.38 $129.38 -1.87σ 60d watch SHORT
IJR equity $143.69 $143.69 +1.80σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $293.48 +1.76σ 252d watch LONG
TSM equity $436.98 $436.98 +1.68σ 252d watch LONG
SOXX equity $562.03 $562.03 +1.64σ 252d watch LONG
IHI equity $51.87 $51.26 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.69 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$486 · 4d
exposure $15,180 · 2 positions · σ 15.5% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$177.62
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 25.5% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.23

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Persistent but contained state tensions in Ukraine, the Persian Gulf, and East Asia show limited market transmission so far, with oil and natgas curves largely flat and safe-haven flows modest. Independent flows and options data corroborate low coupling, while diplomatic signaling supports de-escalation pathways over the 7-30 day window.

Persian Gulf medium

Iranian naval maneuvers and proxy clashes amid stalled nuclear talks

oilfx
CL=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Drone strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter

natgasoil
NG=F, CL=F
horizon: 21d
South China Sea low

Philippines-China vessel confrontation and joint US patrols

risk_assetsfx
GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

State-linked cyber campaign targeting European LNG terminals

Invalidate if: No anomalous spikes in European natgas volatility or physical freight rates, with public attribution remaining absent

Hotspot calibration: 88/128 hits (69%), Brier 0.250 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-09

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.85
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.27
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLV (cyclical-led); XLV:+6.5%, XLF:+5.5%, XLU:+2.9%, XLP:+1.8%, XLK:+0.7%, XLE:-2.9%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.30, z=+1.92
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-09

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 1.12 | 3m 4.28 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 31.6% | 3m 28.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -6.6% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.35 (assets: 23)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 19% | High-Vol 31% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 1.12 | 3m 4.65 | 12m 3.23
Rolling Volatility
1m 31.6% | 3m 28.3% | 12m 44.1%
Drawdown
Current -6.6% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.41 (assets: 39)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 35% | High-Vol 15% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (149d)107/22947% [40%-53%]+145.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/838% [14%-69%]-6.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.07 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (155d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1410d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1410d)298/63547% [43%-51%]+59.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/838% [14%-69%]-6.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.20 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.