The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-10 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘55%
Normal yield curve at 86bp spread with stable Fed funds 3.63% and low geo-risk transmission sets up for range-bound real yields ahead of data prints.
2-day forecastYields likely to drift lower over next 2 sessions if consumer sentiment holds above 44 and VIX remains below 16.5, with 10Y expected sub-4.50 on risk-on flows.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks below 4.50
  • 2s/10s spread widens more than 5bp
  • VIX closes under 16
27% [n=26] Brier 0.309
Financial↗58%
Small caps at +1.97σ and semis at +2.17σ ALERT in 75% bullish direction-ratio regime with low sigma intensity sets up for momentum test.
2-day forecastIndices likely to continue higher over next 2 sessions if breadth momentum improves above -5 and Russell2000 holds 295, targeting extension of BULLISH_BIAS.
Watch
  • Russell2000 holds above 295
  • AMD maintains +2σ deviation
  • VIX fails to spike above 17
42% [n=26] Brier 0.282
Commodity↗65%
ALB and rare earths at -1.8σ extremes after double-digit 30d declines with crude oil rebounding 5.5% 5d sets up for mean-reversion in metals.
2-day forecastDepressed commodities like lithium expected to rebound over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 72 and China demand signals remain stable, per 77% base rate.
Watch
  • ALB rebounds above 130
  • Crude oil holds above 72
  • Broad commodities index gains more than 1%
23% [n=26] Brier 0.352
Currency↗60%
EURUSD at -1.83σ DOWN with stable geo-risk 0.42 and small rate differentials sets up for corrective move from extended levels.
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to rise over next 2 sessions if DXY fails to gain 0.3% and USDJPY stays below 162.5 as mean reversion activates at WATCH extremes.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.142
  • USDCNY holds below 6.80
  • DXY does not rise more than 0.3%
19% [n=26] Brier 0.332
Crypto↗56%
BTC above 64000 with +1.8% daily gain and compressed VIX sets up for continuation in low-dispersion bullish equity correlation.
2-day forecastCrypto expected to edge higher over next 2 sessions if BTC holds 64000 and perpetual funding stays neutral, aligning with risk-asset momentum.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 64000
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
  • VIX remains below 16.5
31% [n=26] Brier 0.259

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Normal yield curve at 86bp spread with stable Fed funds 3.63% and low geo-risk transmission sets up for range-bound real yields ahead of data prints.
Financial↗
Small caps at +1.97σ and semis at +2.17σ ALERT in 75% bullish direction-ratio regime with low sigma intensity sets up for momentum test.
Commodity↗
ALB and rare earths at -1.8σ extremes after double-digit 30d declines with crude oil rebounding 5.5% 5d sets up for mean-reversion in metals.
Currency↗
EURUSD at -1.83σ DOWN with stable geo-risk 0.42 and small rate differentials sets up for corrective move from extended levels.
Crypto↗
BTC above 64000 with +1.8% daily gain and compressed VIX sets up for continuation in low-dispersion bullish equity correlation.

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
7 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
AMD equity $546.72 $546.72 +2.17σ 252d alert LONG
IJR * equity $145.47 $145.47 +1.97σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $297.24 +1.93σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.83σ 252d watch SHORT
ALB equity $128.42 $128.42 -1.82σ 60d watch SHORT
SOXX equity $581.70 $581.70 +1.79σ 252d watch LONG
^TNX equity $4.54 $4.54 +1.77σ 252d watch LONG
TSM equity $436.96 $436.96 +1.66σ 252d watch LONG
IHI equity $52.04 $51.28 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.75 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$12 · 4d
exposure $361 · 2 positions · σ 15.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$1.05
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.16

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine remain elevated but transmission to markets is muted; primary channels are oil via Persian Gulf risks and European natgas, with diplomatic signaling providing de-escalation pathways that cap near-term risk-asset volatility.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict intensifies with strikes on proxy assets near Strait of Hormuz

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, BZ=F, GC=F
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russian forces target Ukrainian natgas transit infrastructure ahead of winter

natgasfxrates
NG=F, EUR=X, ZN=F
horizon: 12d
East Asia low

Chinese naval drills and US freedom-of-navigation ops in South China Sea

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, EUR=X
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Hormuz for 7+ days

Invalidate if: Diplomatic breakthroughs including renewed US-Iran backchannel talks or mutual de-escalation statements verified by multiple independent OSINT sources

Hotspot calibration: 91/131 hits (69%), Brier 0.242 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-10

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
0/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -0.42
7d net (n=6): $-1.25B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLF (cyclical-led); XLF:+7.2%, XLV:+6.7%, XLU:+4.4%, XLP:+0.9%, XLK:+0.8%, XLE:-5.3%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.31, z=+1.84
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-10

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.91 | 3m 4.52 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 28.1% | 3m 28.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -7.5% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.53 (assets: 23)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 25% | High-Vol 25% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.91 | 3m 4.64 | 12m 3.15
Rolling Volatility
1m 28.1% | 3m 28.3% | 12m 44.0%
Drawdown
Current -7.5% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.54 (assets: 39)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 36% | High-Vol 14% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (150d)106/22946% [40%-53%]+146.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/911% [2%-44%]-17.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.07 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (156d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1411d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1411d)297/63547% [43%-51%]+59.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/911% [2%-44%]-17.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.20 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.