The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-11 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates→57%
TNX at +1.91σ above 30-day mean with normal curve and stable geo-risk setting up for consolidation ahead of data releases
2-day forecastYields likely to stabilize over next 2 sessions if NFP expectations hold; expect limited upside if 10Y remains below 4.60%
Watch
  • 10Y yield crosses above 4.60%
  • 2s10s spread narrows below 20bp
  • VIX spikes above 17
27% [n=26] Brier 0.309
Financial↗56%
IJR and AMD at +1.95σ and +2.23σ above 30-day means with low VIX setting up for momentum test in small-caps and semis
2-day forecastFinancials and small-caps likely to see mild continuation higher over next 2 sessions if Russell holds above 295; bear-trap reversal possible on weak breadth
Watch
  • IJR holds above 296 level
  • VIX stays below 15.5
  • NDX breadth expands >0.5%
42% [n=26] Brier 0.282
Commodity↗55%
Lithium and LIT at -1.83σ and -2.13σ below 30-day means with crude rebounding from -19% (30d) and weak geo transmission setting up for mean-reversion probe
2-day forecastCommodities likely to stabilize with metals rebounding if China demand signals improve over next 2 sessions; expect crude to hold range unless escalation trigger
Watch
  • Crude holds above 70.00
  • Lithium price rises >2%
  • Broad commodity index above 16.50
23% [n=26] Brier 0.352
Currency↗57%
EURUSD at -1.82σ below 30-day mean with stable rate differentials and low EM stress setting up for potential rebound from extremes
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to rebound modestly over next 2 sessions if USDJPY fails to break 162.5; expect mild USD softening on de-escalation flows
Watch
  • EURUSD crosses above 1.145
  • USDJPY holds below 162.0
  • USDCNY above 6.82
19% [n=26] Brier 0.332
Crypto→54%
BTC in low-vol consolidation with neutral funding and stable dominance setting up for range trade amid equity momentum
2-day forecastCrypto likely to hold steady or edge higher over next 2 sessions if BTC stays above 63000; expect continuation unless equity reversal triggers
Watch
  • BTC holds above 63000
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
  • VIX remains below 16
31% [n=26] Brier 0.259

Market Situation

Interest Rates→
TNX at +1.91σ above 30-day mean with normal curve and stable geo-risk setting up for consolidation ahead of data releases
Financial↗
IJR and AMD at +1.95σ and +2.23σ above 30-day means with low VIX setting up for momentum test in small-caps and semis
Commodity↗
Lithium and LIT at -1.83σ and -2.13σ below 30-day means with crude rebounding from -19% (30d) and weak geo transmission setting up for mean-reversion probe
Currency↗
EURUSD at -1.82σ below 30-day mean with stable rate differentials and low EM stress setting up for potential rebound from extremes
Crypto→
BTC in low-vol consolidation with neutral funding and stable dominance setting up for range trade amid equity momentum

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
7 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
AMD equity $557.89 $557.89 +2.23σ 252d alert LONG
LIT * equity $72.32 $72.32 -2.13σ 60d alert SHORT
IJR equity $145.56 $145.56 +1.95σ 252d watch LONG
^TNX equity $4.57 $4.57 +1.91σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $295.99 +1.84σ 252d watch LONG
ALB equity $126.05 $126.05 -1.83σ 60d watch SHORT
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.82σ 252d watch SHORT
SOXX * equity $581.34 $581.34 +1.77σ 252d watch LONG
TSM equity $434.11 $434.11 +1.59σ 252d watch LONG
IHI equity $52.04 $51.34 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.72 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$12 · 4d
exposure $361 · 2 positions · σ 15.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$1.53
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 25.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.19

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Middle East proxy clashes and Ukraine stalemate show persistent rhetoric but weak transmission to oil and rates; independent futures curves and cross-asset correlations remain stable, with de-escalation diplomacy in backchannels outweighing escalation signals per LJ3 weighting.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxy skirmishes with Israel in Levant; no direct state strike

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 21d
Eastern Europe medium

Russia-Ukraine attrition with winter energy posturing but no new infrastructure strikes

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 14d
Indo-Pacific high

Routine South China Sea naval transits and Taiwan strait overflights

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Rapid cascade from Ukraine frontline breach triggering European gas rationing

Invalidate if: Independent satellite and flow data confirm reduced Russian maneuvering coupled with renewed Minsk-style negotiations

Hotspot calibration: 92/134 hits (69%), Brier 0.241 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-11

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
0/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-4 Stablecoin net mint (7d) -0.28
7d net (n=6): $-0.85B
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLF (cyclical-led); XLF:+6.6%, XLV:+4.5%, XLU:+3.9%, XLK:+2.9%, XLP:+0.7%, XLE:-3.3%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.31, z=+1.62
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-11

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.62 | 3m 5.38 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.2% | 3m 28.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -3.8% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.47 (assets: 23)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 26% | High-Vol 24% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.62 | 3m 5.38 | 12m 3.18
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.2% | 3m 28.2% | 12m 44.0%
Drawdown
Current -3.8% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.47 (assets: 39)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (151d)109/23147% [41%-54%]+156.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/812% [2%-47%]-13.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.13 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (157d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1412d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (1412d)300/63747% [43%-51%]+63.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/812% [2%-47%]-13.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.22 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.