The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-13 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
TNX at +1.89σ WATCH in normal curve with stable 0.38 geo risk and mixed sentiment data setting up for mean reversion
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if weak consumer sentiment persists and real-yield trajectory does not spike, keeping curve spread near current levels.
Watch
  • TNX closes below 4.40
  • 2s/10s spread widens beyond 95bp
  • MOVE index falls below 65
26% [n=27] Brier 0.313
Financial↘62%
AMD at +2.22σ ALERT and small caps at +1.8-1.9σ WATCH with contracting breadth and VIX -1.77σ setting up for near-term mean reversion
2-day forecastMomentum names like AMD likely to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if VIX rises above 17, while broad indices consolidate unless dispersion narrows sharply.
Watch
  • AMD closes below 540
  • VIX rises above 17.5
  • IWM underperforms SPX by 0.8%
41% [n=27] Brier 0.285
Commodity→58%
Crude rebounding +5% over 5d while lithium/ALB at -1.83σ and ags firm in contained geo transmission regime
2-day forecastEnergy to stabilize and oversold metals like lithium likely to mean-revert higher over next 2 sessions if no Middle East escalation and China demand signals remain neutral.
Watch
  • Crude holds above 73.50
  • Lithium rises above 128
  • Broad commodity index above 16.6
22% [n=27] Brier 0.353
Currency↘56%
EURUSD with -59 momentum trending down and USD firm on rate differentials amid stable geo risk and low EM stress
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to weaken further over next 2 sessions if US real-yield spreads hold and central bank divergence persists, with DXY testing higher.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.135
  • USDJPY rises above 163
  • USDCNY above 6.82
19% [n=27] Brier 0.334
Crypto↗54%
BTC stable near 64k with low vol, futures basis neutral and aligned with AI equity leadership in low-panic regime
2-day forecastBTC likely to consolidate with mild upside bias over next 2 sessions if equity breadth does not deteriorate and spot ETF flows stay positive.
Watch
  • BTC breaks above 65500
  • ETH/BTC dominance rises 1%
  • Perpetual funding rate stays positive
30% [n=27] Brier 0.259

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX at +1.89σ WATCH in normal curve with stable 0.38 geo risk and mixed sentiment data setting up for mean reversion
Financial↘
AMD at +2.22σ ALERT and small caps at +1.8-1.9σ WATCH with contracting breadth and VIX -1.77σ setting up for near-term mean reversion
Commodity→
Crude rebounding +5% over 5d while lithium/ALB at -1.83σ and ags firm in contained geo transmission regime
Currency↘
EURUSD with -59 momentum trending down and USD firm on rate differentials amid stable geo risk and low EM stress
Crypto↗
BTC stable near 64k with low vol, futures basis neutral and aligned with AI equity leadership in low-panic regime

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
8 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
AMD equity $557.89 $557.89 +2.22σ 252d alert LONG
IJR * equity $145.56 $145.56 +1.94σ 252d watch LONG
^TNX * equity $4.57 $4.57 +1.89σ 252d watch LONG
ALB * equity $126.05 $126.05 -1.83σ 60d watch SHORT
IWM equity $294.57 $295.99 +1.83σ 252d watch LONG
^VIX equity $15.03 $15.03 -1.77σ 60d watch SHORT
SOXX equity $581.34 $581.34 +1.75σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X * equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.70σ 252d watch SHORT
TSM equity $434.11 $434.11 +1.58σ 252d watch LONG
IHI equity $52.04 $51.80 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.62 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$12 · 4d
exposure $361 · 2 positions · σ 15.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$0.22
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 25.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.29

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Proxy conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe show contained transmission primarily into energy channels, while East Asian naval posturing has negligible near-term FX/risk-asset coupling; overall transmission coefficients remain low absent orthogonal market confirmation.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxy clashes with Israeli forces and threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe medium

Russia-Ukraine stalemate with renewed rhetoric on European natgas supply cuts ahead of winter

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
South China Sea low

Chinese naval drills and US freedom-of-navigation operations near Taiwan and Philippines

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iran-Israel kinetic conflict closing Strait of Hormuz for >7 days

Invalidate if: Renewed backchannel diplomacy or US-mediated talks produce verifiable de-escalation signals and reduced military posturing

Hotspot calibration: 100/142 hits (70%), Brier 0.237 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-13

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
0/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.41
USDJPY=X: z21=+0.62
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLF (cyclical-led); XLF:+6.6%, XLV:+4.5%, XLU:+3.9%, XLK:+2.9%, XLP:+0.7%, XLE:-3.3%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.31, z=+1.62
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-13

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.62 | 3m 5.38 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.2% | 3m 28.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -3.8% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.47 (assets: 23)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 26% | High-Vol 24% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.62 | 3m 5.38 | 12m 3.18
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.2% | 3m 28.2% | 12m 44.0%
Drawdown
Current -3.8% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.47 (assets: 39)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (151d)109/23147% [41%-54%]+156.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/729% [8%-64%]-3.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.13 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (159d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1414d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1414d)300/63747% [43%-51%]+63.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/729% [8%-64%]-3.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.22 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.