The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-14 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
TNX +2.15σ alert in normal curve with stable geo risk (0.38) setting up mean reversion as no policy shock priced
2-day forecastYields likely to revert modestly lower over next 2 sessions if MOVE stays below 75 and CPI does not surprise higher, expecting 10y to test sub-4.55 levels on base rate mean reversion.
Watch
  • 10y yield breaks above 4.70
  • MOVE index >75
  • CPI m/m >0.3%
23% [n=30] Brier 0.315
Financial↗56%
SPX/NDX with contracting breadth_momentum -4 but WATCH signals on AMD (+1.99σ) and IWM in low VIX regime
2-day forecastAI-linked large caps and small caps likely to show selective outperformance over next 2 sessions if VIX remains below 19, supporting continued leadership without breadth collapse.
Watch
  • VIX >20
  • RUT lags SPX >0.8% 1d
  • tech sector return < -1.5%
37% [n=30] Brier 0.289
Commodity→62%
Crude +9.2% 5d and ags firm while lithium/REEs at -σ lows with broad index +3.6% 5d but -3% 30d
2-day forecastCommodities likely to consolidate near current levels over next 2 sessions if no escalation news hits oil above 83, keeping transmission narrow per GMT channels.
Watch
  • crude >83 or <-2% 1d
  • broad comm index +2% move
  • China PMI <48
27% [n=30] Brier 0.337
Currency↗58%
EURUSD -1.91σ with USD firm on rate differentials and stable geo risk score limiting EM stress
2-day forecastDollar likely to hold firm over next 2 sessions if 10y real yields do not compress below 2.1%, keeping EURUSD pressured below 1.145.
Watch
  • EURUSD >1.155
  • 10y-bund spread >150bp
  • USDCNY >6.85
27% [n=30] Brier 0.318
Crypto→55%
BTC near 62800 with low 30d volatility and stable correlation in low-panic regime
2-day forecastCrypto expected to remain rangebound over next 2 sessions with BTC likely holding 61000-65000 unless equity leadership triggers funding rate shift.
Watch
  • BTC >65000 or <60000
  • perpetual funding >0.02%
  • BTC-SPX corr >0.65
27% [n=30] Brier 0.262

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX +2.15σ alert in normal curve with stable geo risk (0.38) setting up mean reversion as no policy shock priced
Financial↗
SPX/NDX with contracting breadth_momentum -4 but WATCH signals on AMD (+1.99σ) and IWM in low VIX regime
Commodity→
Crude +9.2% 5d and ags firm while lithium/REEs at -σ lows with broad index +3.6% 5d but -3% 30d
Currency↗
EURUSD -1.91σ with USD firm on rate differentials and stable geo risk score limiting EM stress
Crypto→
BTC near 62800 with low 30d volatility and stable correlation in low-panic regime

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^TNX equity $4.61 $4.61 +2.15σ 30d alert LONG
AMD equity $534.39 $534.39 +1.99σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.91σ 252d watch SHORT
IJR equity $144.99 $144.99 +1.85σ 252d watch LONG
ALB equity $125.79 $125.79 -1.76σ 60d watch SHORT
IWM equity $294.57 $293.48 +1.68σ 252d watch LONG
IHI equity $52.04 $51.35 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.44 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$11 · 4d
exposure $361 · 2 positions · σ 14.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.86
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 25.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.48

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Geopolitical tensions are contained with incremental Ukraine diplomacy and Middle East proxy containment; primary transmission remains narrow to energy channels with orthogonal market confirmation limited and second-order FX/rates effects muted.

Middle East medium

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire monitoring with sporadic border incidents but declining intensity

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe medium

Russia-Ukraine talks advance on grain and energy corridors despite battlefield friction

natgasrisk_assets
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific low

Routine South China Sea naval patrols with no new blockade signals

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Unexpected Russian withdrawal from key Ukraine talks triggering energy supply shock

Invalidate if: Independent confirmation of sustained diplomatic channels and physical gas flow increases to Europe

Hotspot calibration: 103/145 hits (71%), Brier 0.236 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-14

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-3 Commodity-currency breadth -0.65
AUDUSD=X: -1.85%; CADUSD=X: -1.07%; NZDUSD=X: -0.90%; BRLUSD=X: -1.38%
Income −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.67
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.32, z=+1.59
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-14

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m 0.66 | 3m 5.99 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.1% | 3m 27.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -4.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.52 (assets: 24)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 29% | High-Vol 21% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m 0.66 | 3m 5.99 | 12m 3.15
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.1% | 3m 27.6% | 12m 41.9%
Drawdown
Current -4.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.52 (assets: 40)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (154d)109/23147% [41%-54%]+156.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/1040% [17%-69%]-5.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.13 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (160d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1415d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1415d)300/63747% [43%-51%]+63.3%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/1040% [17%-69%]-5.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.22 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.