The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-15 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘68%
TNX at +2.15σ ALERT with normal curve and stable geo-risk setting up for mean reversion in yields
2-day forecastYields are likely to decline over the next 2 sessions if no hot economic surprise emerges, as mean reversion from current +2.15σ levels takes hold with real-yield trajectory contained.
Watch
  • if TNX breaks above 4.70 then continuation higher
  • if 2s/10s spread narrows below 25bp then acceleration lower
  • if MOVE index rises above 72 then volatility spike favors lower yields
23% [n=31] Brier 0.318
Financial↗58%
WATCH signals on AMD (+1.99σ) and IWM (+1.68σ) with 67% bullish direction ratio supporting AI-linked selective resilience
2-day forecastEquities are likely to extend modestly higher over the next 2 sessions if dispersion stays below 2.0 and VIX holds under 17, consistent with continued large-cap tech leadership.
Watch
  • if VIX falls below 15.5 then risk-on acceleration
  • if breadth momentum improves above -5 then improved participation
  • if AMD holds above current 1.99σ deviation then momentum continuation
35% [n=31] Brier 0.292
Commodity↘59%
Selective ag strength (corn/wheat +8-9% over 5d) and crude rebound with contained geo transmission to energy
2-day forecastCommodity prices are expected to stabilize with modest pullback pressure over the next 2 sessions if no shipping disruptions emerge, as broad pressures remain contained outside ag pockets.
Watch
  • if crude holds above 81 then upside continuation
  • if China demand prints weaken then metals downside
  • if USD strengthens >0.5% then commodity currency correlation pressures lower
26% [n=31] Brier 0.334
Currency↗65%
EURUSD at -2.04σ DOWN extreme with dollar firm vs EM/commodity currencies in modestly restrictive policy regime
2-day forecastEURUSD is likely to rebound over the next 2 sessions if risk sentiment holds without escalation, as mean reversion from statistical extremes materializes on rate differential stabilization.
Watch
  • if EURUSD breaks above 1.145 then reversion acceleration
  • if USDCNY rises above 6.80 then dollar strength confirmation
  • if real-yield spreads narrow then supportive for EUR bid
26% [n=31] Brier 0.318
Crypto↗56%
BTC consolidating near 64.6k with +5.9% 30d momentum and low VIX within AI/risk-on regime
2-day forecastCrypto is likely to trade modestly higher over the next 2 sessions if equity leadership persists and funding rates remain neutral, extending the 30d uptrend on ETF flows.
Watch
  • if BTC breaks above 66000 then momentum continuation
  • if ETH dominance rises >2pp then altcoin support
  • if perpetual funding stays positive then bullish confirmation
29% [n=31] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX at +2.15σ ALERT with normal curve and stable geo-risk setting up for mean reversion in yields
Financial↗
WATCH signals on AMD (+1.99σ) and IWM (+1.68σ) with 67% bullish direction ratio supporting AI-linked selective resilience
Commodity↘
Selective ag strength (corn/wheat +8-9% over 5d) and crude rebound with contained geo transmission to energy
Currency↗
EURUSD at -2.04σ DOWN extreme with dollar firm vs EM/commodity currencies in modestly restrictive policy regime
Crypto↗
BTC consolidating near 64.6k with +5.9% 30d momentum and low VIX within AI/risk-on regime

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^TNX equity $4.61 $4.61 +2.15σ 30d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -2.04σ 252d alert SHORT
AMD equity $534.39 $534.39 +1.99σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $293.48 +1.68σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.65 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$6 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 14.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$0.05
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.26

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Middle East proxy clashes and Eastern European stalemate show contained transmission to oil and natgas with muted safe-haven bids; independent tape confirms low cascade into rates and broad FX risk premia over 7-30 days as diplomatic channels remain open.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxy attacks on Gulf shipping lanes and energy sites

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russian incremental gains in Donbas raising EU winter natgas security risks

natgasrates
NG=F, US10Y
horizon: 21d
East Asia low

PLA live-fire drills near Taiwan amid US arms transit

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, VIX
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange closing Strait of Hormuz for 7+ days

Invalidate if: Visible de-escalation via US-China facilitated indirect talks or mutual proxy stand-down signals

Hotspot calibration: 108/150 hits (72%), Brier 0.236 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-15

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.61
USDJPY=X: z21=+0.91
Income −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.67
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.36, z=+1.94
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-15

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -1.39 | 3m 4.75 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 26.4% | 3m 29.1% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -11.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.71 (assets: 25)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 28% | High-Vol 22% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -1.39 | 3m 4.75 | 12m 2.81
Rolling Volatility
1m 26.4% | 3m 29.1% | 12m 41.5%
Drawdown
Current -11.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.71 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (155d)109/23646% [40%-53%]+146.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/757% [25%-84%]+4.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.06 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (161d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1416d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1416d)300/64247% [43%-51%]+60.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/757% [25%-84%]+4.5%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.21 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.