The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-16 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗58%
TNX +1.68σ above 30d mean with normal curve and stable 0.48 geo risk sets up for continuation of modestly restrictive front-end pricing
2-day forecastYields likely to firm over next 2 sessions if NFP data strong, with TNX expected to test higher preventing sharp easing repricing.
Watch
  • NFP print >180k
  • 10Y yield breaks 4.60
  • 2s/10s spread holds above 80bp
25% [n=32] Brier 0.312
Financial↗56%
75% bullish direction ratio, low 1.49 dispersion and NVDA resilience despite AMD +1.89σ WATCH sets up for AI-led equity continuation
2-day forecastSPX/NDX likely to edge higher over next 2 sessions if VIX stays below 17, confirming leadership with modest breadth improvement.
Watch
  • VIX remains <17.0
  • NDX holds above 710
  • tech sector +0.5% relative
38% [n=32] Brier 0.289
Commodity→65%
Broad commodities +4.6% 5d led by ag while energy +11.3% on crude amid stable geo risk sets up for contained prices outside selective pockets
2-day forecastCommodities likely to consolidate over next 2 sessions if no Hormuz escalation, with crude expected to hold range around current levels.
Watch
  • Crude between 78-81
  • No new proxy strikes reported
  • Broad index holds 17.0-17.5
25% [n=32] Brier 0.332
Currency↘57%
EURUSD at -1.70σ DOWN with firm rate differentials and stable regime sets up for dollar strength vs cyclically sensitive FX
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to drift lower over next 2 sessions if US data firm, with DXY expected to test higher on continued differentials.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.148
  • DXY >103
  • 10Y real yield +3bp
25% [n=32] Brier 0.319
Crypto↗54%
BTC +7.4% 30d with equity correlation and low VIX sets up for modest AI risk-on bias absent geo transmission
2-day forecastBTC likely to hold or edge higher over next 2 sessions if equities stable and ETF flows neutral-positive.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 63000
  • VIX <16.5
  • Funding rate neutral
28% [n=32] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
TNX +1.68σ above 30d mean with normal curve and stable 0.48 geo risk sets up for continuation of modestly restrictive front-end pricing
Financial↗
75% bullish direction ratio, low 1.49 dispersion and NVDA resilience despite AMD +1.89σ WATCH sets up for AI-led equity continuation
Commodity→
Broad commodities +4.6% 5d led by ag while energy +11.3% on crude amid stable geo risk sets up for contained prices outside selective pockets
Currency↘
EURUSD at -1.70σ DOWN with firm rate differentials and stable regime sets up for dollar strength vs cyclically sensitive FX
Crypto↗
BTC +7.4% 30d with equity correlation and low VIX sets up for modest AI risk-on bias absent geo transmission

Signals

0 Critical
0 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
AMD equity $529.14 $529.14 +1.89σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $295.77 +1.76σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.70σ 252d watch SHORT
^TNX equity $4.55 $4.55 +1.68σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.56 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$5 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 13.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$0.06
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.35

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East proxy frictions and Ukraine stalemate transmit primarily through energy channels with modest safe-haven FX and gold flows; independent market data show limited cascade into broad risk assets as diplomatic tracks remain active.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxy strikes on shipping lanes near Hormuz

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 12d
Eastern Europe high

Incremental Russian advances in Donbas with NATO training leaks

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific low

US-Taiwan arms transit prompting Chinese naval patrols

risk_assetsfx
ES=F, USDJPY=X
horizon: 28d
Top tail risk medium high

Rapid NATO direct involvement in Ukraine prompting broad sovereign rate selloff

Invalidate if: Renewed Minsk-style negotiations or observable reduction in Russian artillery flows

Hotspot calibration: 111/153 hits (73%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-16

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +0.61
EURUSD=X: z=+1.21; USDJPY=X: z=+0.55; CNY=X: z=-2.10
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -0.90
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.35
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.89
real_yield_10y: latest=2.33, z=+1.33
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-16

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -1.00 | 3m 5.34 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.8% | 3m 28.3% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -8.6% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.60 (assets: 25)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -1.00 | 3m 5.34 | 12m 2.87
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.8% | 3m 28.3% | 12m 41.3%
Drawdown
Current -8.6% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.60 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (156d)112/24246% [40%-53%]+144.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-21.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.04 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (162d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1417d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1417d)303/64847% [43%-51%]+60.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-21.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.20 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.