The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-17 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates→62%
Normal curve with TNX +1.79σ WATCH setting up for range-bound yields amid stable geo-risk and no imminent CPI/NFP shock
2-day forecastYields likely to remain range-bound over next 2 sessions with any upside capped if 10Y holds below 4.65 and MOVE stays under 72, consistent with front-end restrictiveness.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.65
  • 2s/10s spread widens more than 8bp
  • MOVE index rises above 72
24% [n=33] Brier 0.317
Financial↗56%
IWM +1.72σ UP and bullish bias streak with low dispersion setting up for selective AI equity leadership to reassert vs small-cap catch-up
2-day forecastIndices likely to stabilize and show modest upside over next 2 sessions if VIX mean-reverts below 17.5 and NDX holds 700, favoring tech leadership continuation.
Watch
  • VIX falls below 17.5
  • NDX holds above 700
  • Tech sector vs broad breadth improves by 0.5
36% [n=33] Brier 0.290
Commodity→55%
Energy and ag positive momentum with metals at deep 30d declines setting up for contained broad index outside selective ag strength
2-day forecastBroad commodities likely to consolidate with slight upward bias over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 79 and no shipping disruption news, limiting input cost pressure.
Watch
  • Crude holds above 79
  • Broad commodity index above 16.8
  • Wheat moves more than 3%
27% [n=33] Brier 0.327
Currency↗57%
EURUSD -58 momentum trending down with dollar firmness setting up for USD strength vs sensitive currencies on rate differentials
2-day forecastUSD likely to firm modestly over next 2 sessions if real-yield spreads hold and risk sentiment avoids sharp deterioration, pressuring EURUSD lower.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.135
  • USDJPY rises above 163
  • DXY rises 0.6%
27% [n=33] Brier 0.313
Crypto↗54%
BTC near 63050 with positive 30d return and low geo transmission setting up for equities-correlated consolidation
2-day forecastCrypto likely to track financials with mild upside bias over next 2 sessions if BTC holds above 61500 and perpetual funding remains neutral-positive.
Watch
  • BTC maintains above 61500
  • ETH/BTC ratio stable above 0.045
  • ETF net flows turn positive
27% [n=33] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates→
Normal curve with TNX +1.79σ WATCH setting up for range-bound yields amid stable geo-risk and no imminent CPI/NFP shock
Financial↗
IWM +1.72σ UP and bullish bias streak with low dispersion setting up for selective AI equity leadership to reassert vs small-cap catch-up
Commodity→
Energy and ag positive momentum with metals at deep 30d declines setting up for contained broad index outside selective ag strength
Currency↗
EURUSD -58 momentum trending down with dollar firmness setting up for USD strength vs sensitive currencies on rate differentials
Crypto↗
BTC near 63050 with positive 30d return and low geo transmission setting up for equities-correlated consolidation

Signals

0 Critical
0 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^TNX * equity $4.57 $4.57 +1.79σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $295.59 +1.72σ 252d watch LONG
AMD equity $500.94 $500.94 +1.64σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.48 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$5 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 12.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$0.36
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.5% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.43

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Persistent state tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East maintain transmission risk to energy commodities and safe-haven flows, yet orthogonal market signals (muted vol skew, stable physical premiums) indicate low coupling so far; GMT4 reflexivity highlights active diplomatic channels as viable de-escalation equilibria within 7-30 days.

Eastern Europe medium

Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy nodes with reciprocal threats to European supply routes

natgasoilrisk_assets
NG=F, CL=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 14d
Middle East medium

Iranian proxy militia clashes near Strait of Hormuz amid nuclear talks impasse

oilfx
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 10d
Indo-Pacific low

Elevated Chinese PLAN patrols around Taiwan with reciprocal US freedom-of-navigation operations

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ^GSPC, TWD=X
horizon: 21d
Top tail risk medium high

Major cyber disruption to European LNG terminals attributed to state actor, spiking natgas and rates volatility

Invalidate if: Independent forensic attribution remains inconclusive and Moscow signals willingness for energy-security negotiations

Hotspot calibration: 115/158 hits (73%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-17

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.57
USDJPY=X: z21=+0.85
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.87
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.71
real_yield_10y: latest=2.32, z=+1.07
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-17

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.02 | 3m 4.68 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.2% | 3m 28.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -10.4% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.49 (assets: 25)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 31% | High-Vol 19% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.02 | 3m 4.68 | 12m 2.84
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.2% | 3m 28.2% | 12m 41.4%
Drawdown
Current -10.4% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.49 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (157d)112/23947% [41%-53%]+142.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/922% [6%-55%]-22.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe1.03 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (163d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1418d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1418d)303/64547% [43%-51%]+59.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/922% [6%-55%]-22.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.20 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.