The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-18 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates→56%
TNX at +1.61σ with normal 83bp curve and stable 0.38 geo risk setting up for range-bound yields with firm front end
2-day forecastYields are likely to remain range-bound over next 2 sessions with front end firm if 2s/10s spread holds above 75bp and absent NFP surprise >200k
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.60
  • 2s10s spread narrows below 70bp
  • MOVE index sustains above 72
24% [n=33] Brier 0.317
Financial↗56%
Small caps at WATCH levels (+1.62-1.86σ UP) with bullish bias streak of 1 day but rising VIX and -10 breadth momentum testing resilience
2-day forecastFinancials are likely to see mild continuation higher over next 2 sessions if IWM holds above +1.5σ with any improvement in breadth momentum
Watch
  • IWM maintains +1.5σ level
  • VIX fails to hold above 19.5
  • RUT momentum stays above +50
36% [n=33] Brier 0.290
Commodity↗57%
Ag and energy at WATCH/positive momentum (DBA +1.57σ, crude +8.5% 30d) with contained geo transmission setting selective strength
2-day forecastCommodities are likely to consolidate with mild upside bias over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 82 and wheat momentum persists
Watch
  • Crude oil above 82.00
  • Wheat sustains +5% 5d move
  • Broad commodity index holds 17.10
27% [n=33] Brier 0.327
Currency↗56%
USD firm with EURUSD near recent lows and positive rate differentials amid stable regime and mixed growth data
2-day forecastUSD is likely to hold firm over next 2 sessions with EURUSD expected lower if real-yield spreads widen and risk tone remains defensive
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.135
  • USDJPY holds above 162
  • 10Y real yield stable above 2.0%
27% [n=33] Brier 0.313
Crypto→54%
BTC resilient at +6.5% 30d with low equity correlation in AI-led low-panic regime
2-day forecastCrypto is likely to trade neutrally over next 2 sessions with BTC expected to hold current levels unless VIX cascades above 22
Watch
  • BTC holds above 63000
  • Perp funding rates neutral
  • ETH/BTC ratio stable
27% [n=33] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates→
TNX at +1.61σ with normal 83bp curve and stable 0.38 geo risk setting up for range-bound yields with firm front end
Financial↗
Small caps at WATCH levels (+1.62-1.86σ UP) with bullish bias streak of 1 day but rising VIX and -10 breadth momentum testing resilience
Commodity↗
Ag and energy at WATCH/positive momentum (DBA +1.57σ, crude +8.5% 30d) with contained geo transmission setting selective strength
Currency↗
USD firm with EURUSD near recent lows and positive rate differentials amid stable regime and mixed growth data
Crypto→
BTC resilient at +6.5% 30d with low equity correlation in AI-led low-panic regime

Signals

0 Critical
0 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
IJR * equity $146.02 $146.02 +1.86σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $294.04 +1.62σ 252d watch LONG
^TNX equity $4.54 $4.54 +1.61σ 252d watch LONG
AMD equity $495.76 $495.76 +1.58σ 252d watch LONG
DBA * equity $27.84 $27.84 +1.57σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X * equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.51σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.55 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$5 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 12.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$0.33
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.37

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Contained state-level tensions persist in the Middle East and Eastern Europe with active diplomatic backchannels; primary transmission is via energy channels with limited cascade to broad risk assets or rates, as orthogonal market data shows only modest vol expansion.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy clashes and threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, BZ=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine frontline stalemate amid intermittent ceasefire signals

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific low

Elevated Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan and Philippines

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange closing Strait of Hormuz for weeks

Invalidate if: Visible de-escalation via US-China mediated talks or sustained drop in oil futures implied volatility

Hotspot calibration: 118/162 hits (73%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-18

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.60
USDJPY=X: z21=+0.90
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.90
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.94
real_yield_10y: latest=2.35, z=+1.40
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-18

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.93 | 3m 3.76 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 26.4% | 3m 28.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -12.9% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.27 (assets: 25)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 28% | High-Vol 22% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.93 | 3m 3.76 | 12m 2.88
Rolling Volatility
1m 26.4% | 3m 28.6% | 12m 41.3%
Drawdown
Current -12.9% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.27 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (158d)112/24146% [40%-53%]+133.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/922% [6%-55%]-25.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.97 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (164d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1419d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1419d)303/64747% [43%-51%]+56.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/922% [6%-55%]-25.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.18 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.