The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-19 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗55%
TNX +1.60σ UP and normal curve with stable geo-risk (0.42) setting up for firm front-end rates in disinflation regime.
2-day forecastYields likely to consolidate with mild upward bias over next 2 sessions if real-yield trajectory holds and no soft CPI surprise, expecting TNX to test higher if 10Y remains above 4.50.
Watch
  • 10Y yield holds >4.50
  • 2s/10s spread stable >30bp
  • MOVE fails to exceed 75
24% [n=33] Brier 0.317
Financial↗57%
IWM/AMD at +1.6σ UP with small cap relative strength while NDX lags on VIX +12.2%, aligning with AI leadership and breadth thesis.
2-day forecastEquities likely to stabilize and post mild gains over next 2 sessions if VIX mean-reverts below 19, with IWM expected to continue relative outperformance on any breadth improvement.
Watch
  • VIX closes <19.0
  • IWM holds above 5d low
  • NDX/SPX ratio does not break -0.5%
36% [n=33] Brier 0.290
Commodity↗54%
Crude +4.5% and DBA/wheat at WATCH UP levels with selective ag/energy pressure but stable geo-risk confirming contained transmission.
2-day forecastCommodities likely to pause or consolidate over next 2 sessions unless fresh disruption news, with crude expected to hold gains only if above $82 with no de-escalation signals.
Watch
  • Crude holds >82.00
  • Wheat momentum >+50
  • No China demand miss < expectations
27% [n=33] Brier 0.327
Currency↗56%
EURUSD -1.50σ DOWN with USD firm vs EM/commodity FX in line with steady dollar and rate differential setup.
2-day forecastUSD likely to remain supported with mild EURUSD downside over next 2 sessions if real-yield spreads hold and central bank divergence persists, triggering further weakness below 1.135.
Watch
  • EURUSD <1.135
  • USDJPY >162.00
  • DXY holds above 98.5
27% [n=33] Brier 0.313
Crypto↗53%
BTC resilient at +6.5% 30d with low equity correlation and stable funding tone amid equity pullback.
2-day forecastCrypto expected to trade modestly higher over next 2 sessions if BTC holds above 63000 with positive ETF flows confirmation, likely extending if VIX fails to spike above 22.
Watch
  • BTC >63000
  • ETH dominance stable
  • Perpetual funding rate >0
27% [n=33] Brier 0.261

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
TNX +1.60σ UP and normal curve with stable geo-risk (0.42) setting up for firm front-end rates in disinflation regime.
Financial↗
IWM/AMD at +1.6σ UP with small cap relative strength while NDX lags on VIX +12.2%, aligning with AI leadership and breadth thesis.
Commodity↗
Crude +4.5% and DBA/wheat at WATCH UP levels with selective ag/energy pressure but stable geo-risk confirming contained transmission.
Currency↗
EURUSD -1.50σ DOWN with USD firm vs EM/commodity FX in line with steady dollar and rate differential setup.
Crypto↗
BTC resilient at +6.5% 30d with low equity correlation and stable funding tone amid equity pullback.

Signals

0 Critical
0 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
IWM equity $294.57 $294.04 +1.62σ 252d watch LONG
^TNX equity $4.54 $4.54 +1.60σ 252d watch LONG
AMD equity $495.76 $495.76 +1.57σ 252d watch LONG
DBA equity $27.84 $27.84 +1.57σ 30d watch LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.50σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.50 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$5 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 12.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$0.33
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.41

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Core state tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe show contained transmission to energy channels with active diplomatic backchannels; independent market signals (futures curves, cross-asset correlations) confirm limited second-order spillovers to risk assets and funding currencies over the 7-30 day horizon.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxy actions and Israeli responses in Levant with intermittent Red Sea shipping friction

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine attrition with threats to Ukrainian energy infrastructure amid ceasefire rumors

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Indo-Pacific low

Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan and South China Sea incidents

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Major cyber disruption to European LNG terminals attributed to state actor

Invalidate if: Rapid attribution to non-state actors, swift infrastructure restoration, or joint diplomatic condemnation without escalation

Hotspot calibration: 121/165 hits (73%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-19

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.60
USDJPY=X: z21=+0.90
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.90
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.94
real_yield_10y: latest=2.35, z=+1.40
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-19

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.61 | 3m 3.48 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.0% | 3m 28.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -14.3% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.24 (assets: 25)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 27% | High-Vol 23% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.61 | 3m 3.48 | 12m 2.83
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.0% | 3m 28.9% | 12m 41.4%
Drawdown
Current -14.3% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.24 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (158d)112/24346% [40%-52%]+121.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-30.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.89 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (165d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1420d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1420d)303/64947% [43%-51%]+52.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/825% [7%-59%]-30.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.15 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.