The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-20 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗55%
TNX at +1.60σ WATCH UP with normal curve, stable fed funds, and mixed economic prints (CPI -0.4%, sentiment -10%)
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to edge higher over next 2 sessions if real-yield trajectory remains positive and TNX holds above 4.50, with limited steepening expected.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks 4.55
  • No dovish surprise in upcoming data releases
  • VIX stays below 19
24% [n=34] Brier 0.317
Financial↗56%
Small caps at WATCH extremes (IWM +1.61σ, VTWO +1.63σ) with 80% bullish direction ratio, 1-day BULLISH_BIAS streak and contracting breadth
2-day forecastSmall caps likely to show relative strength versus large caps over next 2 sessions if breadth momentum improves above -6, continuing WATCH-level momentum.
Watch
  • IWM > 294.50
  • Russell2000/SPX ratio rises 0.3%
  • VIX compresses below 17.8
35% [n=34] Brier 0.291
Commodity↗54%
Grains and energy leading (corn +6.6% 1d, DBA +1.57σ UP) with Russia threats and Persian Gulf proxy risks transmitting via supply channel per GMT2
2-day forecastCommodity complex expected to see modest upside over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 81 and no de-escalation signals emerge from hotspots.
Watch
  • Crude oil > 82.00
  • Wheat futures +1.5% or more
  • No positive Ukraine negotiation leaks
26% [n=34] Brier 0.324
Currency↘53%
EURUSD stable near 1.14 with USDJPY at 162.37, minor commodity currency lift and central-bank divergence in focus amid stable geo regime
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to test slightly lower over next 2 sessions if USDJPY breaks 163 on higher real yields, reflecting rate differential persistence.
Watch
  • USDJPY > 163.00
  • 10Y yield rises 3bp or more
  • ECB communication more dovish than expected
26% [n=34] Brier 0.313
Crypto↗52%
BTC holding $64400 level with +7.1% 30d momentum but low dispersion, AI proxies weak and geo transmission risks secondary
2-day forecastBTC expected to consolidate with mild upside bias over next 2 sessions if it holds above 63000 and VIX remains below 19, pending ETF flow data.
Watch
  • BTC maintains > 64000
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
  • Equity risk sentiment does not deteriorate
29% [n=34] Brier 0.260

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
TNX at +1.60σ WATCH UP with normal curve, stable fed funds, and mixed economic prints (CPI -0.4%, sentiment -10%)
Financial↗
Small caps at WATCH extremes (IWM +1.61σ, VTWO +1.63σ) with 80% bullish direction ratio, 1-day BULLISH_BIAS streak and contracting breadth
Commodity↗
Grains and energy leading (corn +6.6% 1d, DBA +1.57σ UP) with Russia threats and Persian Gulf proxy risks transmitting via supply channel per GMT2
Currency↘
EURUSD stable near 1.14 with USDJPY at 162.37, minor commodity currency lift and central-bank divergence in focus amid stable geo regime
Crypto↗
BTC holding $64400 level with +7.1% 30d momentum but low dispersion, AI proxies weak and geo transmission risks secondary

Signals

0 Critical
0 Alert
6 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
VTWO * equity $118.89 $118.89 +1.63σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $294.04 +1.61σ 252d watch LONG
^TNX equity $4.54 $4.54 +1.60σ 252d watch LONG
AMD equity $495.76 $495.76 +1.57σ 252d watch LONG
DBA equity $27.84 $27.84 +1.57σ 30d watch LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.51σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.61 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$5 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 12.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$1.07
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 27.0% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.31

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Mid-2026 state tensions across the Middle East, Eastern Europe and East Asia transmit primarily into energy commodities via supply disruption fears, with secondary safe-haven FX and risk-premia ripples; independent tape confirmation remains muted, consistent with GMT1-5 priors that place high weight on de-escalation equilibria.

Persian Gulf medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict intensifies with proxy strikes near shipping lanes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia issues fresh threats to restrict pipeline and LNG flows amid Ukraine talks deadlock

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Taiwan Strait medium

Chinese naval drills expand with live-fire zones declared near Taiwanese waters

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Russian tactical strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure cascades into European winter natgas shortage

Invalidate if: Third-party mediation (Turkey/China) yields concrete ceasefire roadmap with energy guarantees

Hotspot calibration: 122/166 hits (73%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-20

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +0.56
USDJPY=X: z21=+0.84
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.90
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.94
real_yield_10y: latest=2.35, z=+1.40
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-20

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.61 | 3m 3.48 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.0% | 3m 28.9% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -14.3% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.24 (assets: 25)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 27% | High-Vol 23% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.61 | 3m 3.48 | 12m 2.83
Rolling Volatility
1m 27.0% | 3m 28.9% | 12m 41.4%
Drawdown
Current -14.3% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.24 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 49% | Mean-Rev 1%
Current: trend (49%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (158d)112/24346% [40%-52%]+121.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/714% [3%-51%]-32.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.89 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (166d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1421d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1421d)303/64947% [43%-51%]+52.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/714% [3%-51%]-32.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.15 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.