The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-21 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
10Y at +1.90σ with normal curve and stable 0.48 geo risk setting up for mean-reversion pullback
2-day forecastYields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if NFP prints below 200k and no escalation in Ukraine energy strikes; expect 10Y below 4.50 on de-escalation signals from Persian Gulf.
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.70
  • 2s10s spread narrows below 20bp
  • NFP surprise >250k
24% [n=37] Brier 0.310
Financial↗62%
QQQ at -1.66σ with tech -5.3% 30d and 83% bullish direction ratio setting up for mean-reversion bounce
2-day forecastEquities likely to rebound over next 2 sessions if VIX drops below 17 and breadth momentum improves above -5, with NDX expected to test recent highs on positive tech rotation.
Watch
  • VIX closes below 17.0
  • QQQ advances above 705
  • tech sector beats SPX by 0.5%
32% [n=37] Brier 0.293
Commodity↗57%
DBA at +1.74σ and crude +9.2% 30d with geo hotspots elevating supply risks setting up for momentum continuation
2-day forecastCommodities expected to extend gains over next 2 sessions if Persian Gulf shipping threats persist, with crude likely to hold above 83 and grains follow on China demand data.
Watch
  • Crude holds above 83.00
  • DBA advances another 1%
  • no de-escalation leaks from Eastern Europe
30% [n=37] Brier 0.316
Currency↗58%
EURUSD at -1.63σ with rate differentials and stable geo risk setting up for mean-reversion stabilization
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to stabilize or mildly rebound over next 2 sessions if risk sentiment holds and East China Sea patrols remain non-escalatory, expecting test of 1.145 level.
Watch
  • EURUSD holds above 1.135
  • USDCNY stable below 6.80
  • 10Y real yield eases 5bp
24% [n=37] Brier 0.314
Crypto↗55%
BTC +13.1% 30d with bullish bias and equity correlation setting up for continued upside in low-dispersion regime
2-day forecastCrypto likely to grind higher over next 2 sessions if BTC holds above 65000 and ETF flows remain positive, with ETH expected to follow on dominance shift below 55%.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 65000
  • funding rate stays positive
  • correlation to QQQ remains below 0.6
32% [n=37] Brier 0.257

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
10Y at +1.90σ with normal curve and stable 0.48 geo risk setting up for mean-reversion pullback
Financial↗
QQQ at -1.66σ with tech -5.3% 30d and 83% bullish direction ratio setting up for mean-reversion bounce
Commodity↗
DBA at +1.74σ and crude +9.2% 30d with geo hotspots elevating supply risks setting up for momentum continuation
Currency↗
EURUSD at -1.63σ with rate differentials and stable geo risk setting up for mean-reversion stabilization
Crypto↗
BTC +13.1% 30d with bullish bias and equity correlation setting up for continued upside in low-dispersion regime

Signals

0 Critical
0 Alert
7 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^TNX * equity $4.60 $4.60 +1.90σ 252d watch LONG
DBA equity $28.02 $28.02 +1.74σ 252d watch LONG
QQQ * equity $696.06 $696.06 -1.66σ 30d watch SHORT
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.63σ 252d watch SHORT
AMD equity $503.57 $503.57 +1.61σ 252d watch LONG
VTWO equity $118.17 $118.17 +1.52σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $292.31 +1.51σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.62 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$5 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 11.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$0.54
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 24.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.29

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Transmission remains selective: Middle East proxy clashes and Ukraine winter energy threats couple into oil and natgas via supply fears, while East Asia frictions feed safe-haven FX and risk-asset volatility; second-order cascades to rates are muted absent physical disruption, with diplomatic backchannels providing clear de-escalation paths.

Persian Gulf medium

Iran-Israel proxy exchanges with threats to shipping lanes but no direct strikes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Ukraine frontline stalemate with Russian strikes on energy infrastructure ahead of winter

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
East China Sea medium

Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan with US freedom-of-navigation response

risk_assetsfx
^IXIC, USDJPY=X
horizon: 14d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iranian closure of Strait of Hormuz after Israeli strike on nuclear sites

Invalidate if: Renewed indirect US-Iran talks or mutual de-escalation signaling via Oman backchannel produce verifiable restraint

Hotspot calibration: 125/170 hits (74%), Brier 0.235 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-21

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.59
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.54
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
0/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.48
real_yield_10y: latest=2.31, z=+0.71
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-21

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -5.81 | 3m 2.92 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.6% | 3m 28.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -14.5% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.09 (assets: 25)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 31% | High-Vol 19% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -5.81 | 3m 2.92 | 12m 3.02
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.6% | 3m 28.6% | 12m 40.9%
Drawdown
Current -14.5% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.09 (assets: 41)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (160d)112/24346% [40%-52%]+121.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/70% [0%-35%]-30.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.89 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (167d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1422d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1422d)303/64947% [43%-51%]+52.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/70% [0%-35%]-30.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.15 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.