The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-22 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
TNX at +2.04σ ALERT amid escalating geo risk score 0.52 but active de-escalation probes and normal curve set up mean-reversion pressure
2-day forecastYields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if no fresh Red Sea escalation materializes; expect 10Y to test sub-4.55% on soft data or de-escalation signals.
Watch
  • 10Y yield fails to break 4.70
  • 2s10s spread holds above 80bp
  • No new proxy incidents in Gulf
26% [n=38] Brier 0.308
Financial↘56%
Small-cap WATCH signals (IWM +1.71σ, AMD +1.92σ) and 71% bullish direction ratio clash with rising yields and contracting breadth momentum -7
2-day forecastEquities expected to consolidate or tilt lower over next 2 sessions if TNX holds elevated; SPX likely tests 740 area on any VIX expansion above 18.
Watch
  • VIX crosses 18
  • IWM loses +1.5σ level
  • Tech sector lags broader index by >1%
34% [n=38] Brier 0.290
Commodity↗58%
Crude at +16.7% 30d momentum with primary GMT transmission from ME proxy harassment and Russia energy signals in escalating regime
2-day forecastOil prices likely to extend or hold firm over next 2 sessions if shipping disruptions intensify; crude expected to test 89+ on confirmed Red Sea incidents.
Watch
  • Crude breaks above 88.50
  • New Red Sea harassment reports
  • Russia natgas restriction confirmed
32% [n=38] Brier 0.313
Currency↗57%
EURUSD at -1.68σ WATCH with USD supported by higher real yields and safe-haven bid from geo hotspots
2-day forecastUSD strength likely to continue over next 2 sessions if risk sentiment deteriorates; EURUSD expected to test lower toward 1.135 on any escalation news.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.135
  • VIX rises >1pt
  • 10Y real yield holds above 2.1%
24% [n=38] Brier 0.313
Crypto→52%
BTC +10% 30d but -0.8% 1d with low dispersion and escalating geo risk creating mixed transmission to risk assets
2-day forecastCrypto likely to trade range-bound to slightly softer over next 2 sessions if equity downside materializes; BTC expected to hold 64k support unless ETF flows reverse sharply.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 64000
  • Equity indices decline >0.5%
  • Funding rates remain neutral
34% [n=38] Brier 0.257

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX at +2.04σ ALERT amid escalating geo risk score 0.52 but active de-escalation probes and normal curve set up mean-reversion pressure
Financial↘
Small-cap WATCH signals (IWM +1.71σ, AMD +1.92σ) and 71% bullish direction ratio clash with rising yields and contracting breadth momentum -7
Commodity↗
Crude at +16.7% 30d momentum with primary GMT transmission from ME proxy harassment and Russia energy signals in escalating regime
Currency↗
EURUSD at -1.68σ WATCH with USD supported by higher real yields and safe-haven bid from geo hotspots
Crypto→
BTC +10% 30d but -0.8% 1d with low dispersion and escalating geo risk creating mixed transmission to risk assets

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^TNX equity $4.63 $4.63 +2.04σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $544.43 $544.43 +1.92σ 252d watch LONG
DBA * equity $28.15 $28.15 +1.85σ 252d watch LONG
VTWO equity $119.83 $119.83 +1.72σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $296.54 +1.71σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X * equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.68σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.51 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$4 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 11.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$0.59
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 24.6% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.40

Geopolitical Risk

0.52 escalating

Middle East proxy clashes and Russia-Ukraine energy maneuvers transmit primarily into oil and natgas with secondary safe-haven FX flows, while East Asian posturing weighs on risk assets; second-order European rates pressure remains contained and diplomatic channels show active de-escalation probes that could cap upside in risk premia within 30 days.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxies intensify Red Sea and Gulf shipping harassment

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russia signals phased natgas export restrictions to EU over Ukraine stalemate

natgasratesfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
East Asia medium

Chinese naval drills expand near Taiwan amid US arms package announcements

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel targeting energy infrastructure

Invalidate if: Visible progress on indirect Vienna-style talks or mutual pullback of naval assets confirmed by independent satellite and shipping data

Hotspot calibration: 129/175 hits (74%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-22

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+2.08
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) -1.00
1/5 above; NVDA:- AMD:+ TSM:- GOOGL:- MSFT:-
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.84
real_yield_10y: latest=2.35, z=+1.26
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-22

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.74 | 3m 2.75 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.6% | 3m 28.6% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -12.7% | Max -22.3%
ENB
4.02 (assets: 26)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 33% | High-Vol 17% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.74 | 3m 2.75 | 12m 3.20
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.6% | 3m 28.6% | 12m 40.5%
Drawdown
Current -12.7% | Max -88.4%
ENB
4.02 (assets: 42)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (162d)115/24747% [40%-53%]+127.2%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/633% [10%-70%]-3.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.92 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (168d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1423d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1423d)306/65347% [43%-51%]+54.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/633% [10%-70%]-3.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.17 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.