The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-23 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
TNX +2.16σ ALERT above 30d mean with normal curve and stable fed funds setting up for mean reversion
2-day forecastYields are likely to decline over the next 2 sessions via mean reversion if no hot inflation surprise or escalation spike, with 10Y expected to test 10-15bp lower on position squaring.
Watch
  • 10Y yield rises above 4.75%
  • 2s10s spread narrows >5bp
  • VIX spikes above 19
26% [n=39] Brier 0.310
Financial↗56%
83% bullish direction ratio with contracting -9 breadth and IWM/AMD at WATCH up but VIX expanding
2-day forecastEquities are likely to post mild gains over the next 2 sessions if yields mean-revert and energy rotation persists, with SPX expected to hold above 745 on low-dispersion coordination.
Watch
  • SPX holds above 745
  • VIX closes below 18.5
  • AMD sustains above 550
33% [n=39] Brier 0.293
Commodity↗58%
Crude +24.1% 30d on escalating geo risk score 0.52 while lithium/rare earths at deep 30d drawdowns
2-day forecastEnergy and grains are likely to extend higher over the next 2 sessions if hotspots intensify or China demand prints positive, while lithium shows mean-reversion bounce if no further negative supply news.
Watch
  • Crude holds above $89
  • DBA momentum sustains >+50
  • lithium rebounds >2% in a session
33% [n=39] Brier 0.310
Currency↗57%
EURUSD -1.77σ WATCH low with rising real yields and geo risk supporting USD bid
2-day forecastUSD is expected to strengthen over the next 2 sessions with EURUSD likely to test lower if 10Y holds elevated and risk assets remain stable, on rate differential persistence.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.135
  • 10Y yield >4.60%
  • DXY rises >0.4%
23% [n=39] Brier 0.313
Crypto↗54%
BTC +6.7% 30d holding with neutral funding and low correlation to equities amid 83% bullish direction ratio
2-day forecastCrypto is likely to consolidate with slight upside bias over the next 2 sessions if equities hold and ETF flows remain neutral, with BTC expected to test toward 67000 on stable perpetuals.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 65000
  • ETH/BTC ratio >0.055
  • VIX declines >3%
33% [n=39] Brier 0.258

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX +2.16σ ALERT above 30d mean with normal curve and stable fed funds setting up for mean reversion
Financial↗
83% bullish direction ratio with contracting -9 breadth and IWM/AMD at WATCH up but VIX expanding
Commodity↗
Crude +24.1% 30d on escalating geo risk score 0.52 while lithium/rare earths at deep 30d drawdowns
Currency↗
EURUSD -1.77σ WATCH low with rising real yields and geo risk supporting USD bid
Crypto↗
BTC +6.7% 30d holding with neutral funding and low correlation to equities amid 83% bullish direction ratio

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
5 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^TNX equity $4.66 $4.66 +2.16σ 252d alert LONG
AMD equity $552.33 $552.33 +1.95σ 252d watch LONG
DBA equity $28.23 $28.23 +1.91σ 252d watch LONG
TLT * equity $83.44 $83.44 -1.91σ 252d watch SHORT
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.77σ 252d watch SHORT
IWM equity $294.57 $293.79 +1.55σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.59 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$4 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 11.7% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$1.19
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 23.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.32

Geopolitical Risk

0.52 escalating

Middle East proxy clashes and Ukraine energy talks maintain moderate transmission to oil and natgas with secondary safe-haven bids, yet orthogonal market data (futures curves, cross-asset vols) show contained cascades and active diplomatic channels; de-escalation remains a live equilibrium.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxies intensify Red Sea and Gulf shipping harassment

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F
horizon: 12d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine winter gas transit talks reach impasse

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
East Asia medium

PLA conducts large-scale drills encircling Taiwan

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 9d
Top tail risk medium high

State-linked cyber disruption to European LNG terminals

Invalidate if: Physical flows and independent satellite monitoring show no deviation from seasonal norms

Hotspot calibration: 132/180 hits (73%), Brier 0.234 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-23

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+2.34
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-5 Sector breadth (21d positive + defensive read) +1.00
5/6 positive 21d (pct=0.83); top=XLE (cyclical-led); XLE:+9.5%, XLV:+6.2%, XLF:+4.4%, XLU:+2.7%, XLP:+2.7%, XLK:-6.2%
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.95
real_yield_10y: latest=2.37, z=+1.42
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-23

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.50 | 3m 2.89 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.4% | 3m 28.3% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -9.6% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.59 (assets: 27)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 31% | High-Vol 19% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.50 | 3m 2.89 | 12m 3.18
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.4% | 3m 28.3% | 12m 40.2%
Drawdown
Current -9.6% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.59 (assets: 43)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (163d)118/24947% [41%-54%]+138.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/743% [16%-75%]+5.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.97 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (169d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1424d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1424d)309/65547% [43%-51%]+59.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/743% [16%-75%]+5.1%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.19 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.