The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-24 04:36 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘68%
10Y yields +2.49σ ALERT above 30d mean after 3.6% 5d rise with normal curve and stable geo-risk score 0.42
2-day forecastYields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if no hot inflation surprise or escalation, anchored to 77% mean-reversion base rate for 2σ+ moves before adjusting for stable regime
Watch
  • 10Y yield drops below 4.60
  • 2s/10s spread widens more than 5bp
  • MOVE index fails to rise above 72
25% [n=40] Brier 0.313
Financial↘56%
QQQ -1.83σ DOWN and SPX breadth contracting with yields at ALERT, setting up pressure in low sigma-intensity 1.17 regime
2-day forecastEquities expected to lean lower over next 2 sessions if 10Y holds above 4.65 and breadth momentum stays negative, with WATCH-level downside momentum at 0.58 base rate [n=128]
Watch
  • SPX closes below 730
  • VIX rises above 19.5
  • Tech sector underperforms financials by 0.8%
35% [n=40] Brier 0.290
Commodity↘70%
Crude +2.33σ ALERT after +8.0% 5d and +27.7% 30d with only modest Red Sea transmission and stable geo regime
2-day forecastOil likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if no new proxy incidents or demand beats, starting from 77% mean-reversion base rate for 2σ+ signals [n=1686] before GMT de-escalation branch
Watch
  • Crude falls below 87.50
  • No escalation in Red Sea shipping reports
  • DBA fails to confirm with negative 1d move
35% [n=40] Brier 0.306
Currency↘57%
EURUSD -1.69σ WATCH lower with firming real-yield spread and stable risk score limiting EM stress
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to extend lower over next 2 sessions if 10Y yield holds above 4.65, consistent with WATCH momentum-continuation base rate 0.58 [n=128]
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.135
  • USDJPY holds above 163.50
  • 10Y-2Y spread stable or narrowing
25% [n=40] Brier 0.310
Crypto→62%
BTC near 65k with 30d +3.9% but flat 5d, low vol and tech dispersion (QQQ -1.83σ) creating neutral setup
2-day forecastCrypto expected to trade neutral to slightly softer over next 2 sessions if equities lean down and ETF flows stay muted, with no strong sigma trigger
Watch
  • BTC holds above 64000
  • VIX remains below 19
  • NDX reverses less than 1%
32% [n=40] Brier 0.258

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
10Y yields +2.49σ ALERT above 30d mean after 3.6% 5d rise with normal curve and stable geo-risk score 0.42
Financial↘
QQQ -1.83σ DOWN and SPX breadth contracting with yields at ALERT, setting up pressure in low sigma-intensity 1.17 regime
Commodity↘
Crude +2.33σ ALERT after +8.0% 5d and +27.7% 30d with only modest Red Sea transmission and stable geo regime
Currency↘
EURUSD -1.69σ WATCH lower with firming real-yield spread and stable risk score limiting EM stress
Crypto→
BTC near 65k with 30d +3.9% but flat 5d, low vol and tech dispersion (QQQ -1.83σ) creating neutral setup

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^TNX equity $4.70 $4.70 +2.49σ 60d alert LONG
USO * equity $139.49 $139.49 +2.33σ 30d alert LONG
TLT equity $83.17 $83.17 -2.08σ 252d alert SHORT
DBA equity $28.24 $28.24 +1.89σ 252d watch LONG
QQQ * equity $691.96 $691.96 -1.83σ 30d watch SHORT
AMD equity $539.69 $539.69 +1.82σ 252d watch LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.69σ 252d watch SHORT
IWM equity $294.57 $293.20 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.24 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$4 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 11.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$0.85
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 23.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.67

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Middle East proxy actions transmit modestly to oil via shipping risk while Ukraine fatigue and diplomatic signaling favor de-escalation with negligible natgas impact; East Asia patrols add FX volatility but lack orthogonal confirmation in vol skews or cross-asset flows, keeping net coupling low over 7-30 days.

Middle East medium

Iran-backed proxies intensify Red Sea and Gulf shipping harassment

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F, USDCHF=X
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine frontline stalemate with mutual exhaustion and backchannel talks

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X, TLT
horizon: 30d
East Asia medium

Chinese naval patrols and live-fire drills near Taiwan and Philippines

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPY, BTC-USD
horizon: 21d
Top tail risk medium high

Major cyber disruption attributed to state actor targeting European LNG terminals

Invalidate if: Rapid technical containment without attribution consensus and absence of follow-on physical attacks

Hotspot calibration: 136/185 hits (74%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-24

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+2.58
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) -1.00
1/5 above; NVDA:- AMD:+ TSM:- GOOGL:- MSFT:-
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.39, z=+1.55
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-24

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.02 | 3m 2.78 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.4% | 3m 28.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -8.5% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.60 (assets: 27)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 31% | High-Vol 19% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.02 | 3m 2.78 | 12m 3.11
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.4% | 3m 28.2% | 12m 40.0%
Drawdown
Current -8.5% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.60 (assets: 43)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (164d)117/25147% [41%-53%]+142.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/757% [25%-84%]+15.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.99 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (170d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1425d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1425d)308/65747% [43%-51%]+60.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)4/757% [25%-84%]+15.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.20 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.