The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-25 04:32 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘63%
10Y at +2.49σ UP after +3.6% 5d bear-steepening move — mean-reversion setup
2-day forecastExpect 10Y yield to stall and likely retrace over next 2 sessions given the 2σ+ mean-reversion base rate of 77% within 6d [n=1686]. If 10Y prints below 4.60% and 2s/10s holds +36bp, look for yield pullback toward 4.55%. Absent a hot data surprise, momentum at +68 (highest in tape) is stretched and prone to fade.
Watch
  • 10Y breaks below 4.60% → reversion confirmed
  • 10Y closes above 4.78% → trend continuation, invalidates reversion
  • 2s/10s compresses below +25bp → curve-flattening pressure
25% [n=40] Brier 0.313
Financial↗54%
QQQ -1.83σ DOWN with VIX +12.4% 1d — negative-extreme setup amid breadth contraction
2-day forecastOver next 2 sessions expect choppy stabilization attempt in QQQ; WATCH-level signals hit 56% [n=1119] with 77% short-window mean-reversion for 2σ names, but breadth momentum -6 caps upside. If VIX holds above 18 and breadth stays negative, expect failed bounces. Base case: modest reversion higher, low conviction.
Watch
  • VIX falls below 17 → risk-on reversion
  • VIX spikes above 22 → downside acceleration
  • breadth momentum improves above -3 → participation repair
35% [n=40] Brier 0.290
Commodity↘62%
Crude +2.33σ UP, -3.1% 1d after +27% 30d — reversion already underway from extended rally
2-day forecastExpect crude to continue cooling over next 2 sessions; the -3.1% 1d move plus +2.33σ reading aligns with 77% 2σ+ mean-reversion within 6d [n=1686]. If WTI breaks below $87 with no fresh supply-disruption headline, expect drift toward $85. De-escalation in Ukraine talks removes a geo bid.
Watch
  • WTI below $87 → reversion confirmed
  • WTI reclaims $92 on supply headline → trend resumes
  • gold above $4100 → safe-haven flows persist
35% [n=40] Brier 0.306
Currency↗53%
EURUSD -1.94σ DOWN at WATCH extreme — USD firm on yield differential
2-day forecastOver next 2 sessions expect EURUSD to attempt a bounce from the -1.94σ extreme; WATCH signals show 56% hit rate [n=1119] and 2σ-adjacent reversion is common. However, if 10Y stays above 4.65%, the rate differential keeps USD bid and caps EUR recovery near 1.145. Range-bound with slight upside skew.
Watch
  • EURUSD reclaims 1.145 → reversion higher
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.135 → USD trend extends
  • 10Y falls below 4.60% → EUR relief
25% [n=40] Brier 0.310
Crypto→50%
BTC $64.1k consolidating, no active sigma signal — decoupled from rate/equity stress
2-day forecastExpect BTC to range near $63-65k over next 2 sessions absent a catalyst; no sigma signal means no calibrated edge. If BTC holds above $63k with neutral funding, drift is sideways-to-mildly-lower given risk-off tone in equities. Low conviction, watch-size only.
Watch
  • BTC below $62k → risk-off contagion from equities
  • BTC above $66k → independent bid
  • ETF net inflows turn positive → spot demand
32% [n=40] Brier 0.258

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
10Y at +2.49σ UP after +3.6% 5d bear-steepening move — mean-reversion setup
Financial↗
QQQ -1.83σ DOWN with VIX +12.4% 1d — negative-extreme setup amid breadth contraction
Commodity↘
Crude +2.33σ UP, -3.1% 1d after +27% 30d — reversion already underway from extended rally
Currency↗
EURUSD -1.94σ DOWN at WATCH extreme — USD firm on yield differential
Crypto→
BTC $64.1k consolidating, no active sigma signal — decoupled from rate/equity stress

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^TNX * equity $4.70 $4.70 +2.49σ 60d alert LONG
USO equity $139.49 $139.49 +2.33σ 30d alert LONG
TLT equity $83.17 $83.17 -2.08σ 252d alert SHORT
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.94σ 252d watch SHORT
DBA equity $28.24 $28.24 +1.89σ 252d watch LONG
QQQ equity $691.96 $691.96 -1.83σ 30d watch SHORT
AMD equity $539.69 $539.69 +1.82σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $291.17 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.28 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$4 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 11.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.10
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 24.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.63

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Indo-Pacific remain active but contained, with diplomatic signaling and backchannel talks limiting transmission primarily to energy curves and safe-haven FX. Second-order effects on correlated risk premia and European rates are modest and already partially reflected in vol surfaces.

Eastern Europe high

Stalemate in Ukraine with intermittent strikes but renewed ceasefire negotiations

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 18d
Middle East medium

Iran proxy actions and Israeli responses in shadow conflict

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 12d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan Strait amid US freedom-of-navigation operations

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz for 7+ days

Invalidate if: Third-party mediation yields verifiable reduction in proxy attacks and observable decline in Brent contango

Hotspot calibration: 138/190 hits (73%), Brier 0.232 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-25

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+2.60
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) -1.00
1/5 above; NVDA:- AMD:+ TSM:- GOOGL:- MSFT:-
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.43, z=+1.86
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-25

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -1.81 | 3m 2.71 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.4% | 3m 28.1% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -8.2% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.56 (assets: 27)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 31% | High-Vol 19% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -1.81 | 3m 2.71 | 12m 3.00
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.4% | 3m 28.1% | 12m 39.6%
Drawdown
Current -8.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.56 (assets: 43)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (165d)118/25247% [41%-53%]+139.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/743% [16%-75%]+5.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.97 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (171d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1426d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1426d)309/65847% [43%-51%]+59.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/743% [16%-75%]+5.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.19 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.