The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-26 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
Yields at ALERT extremes (+2.49-2.83σ) after 5d surge amid reflation data and sentiment drop, setting up mean-reversion pullback
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if VIX holds above 18 or no new escalation prints, expecting 5-15bp decline on de-escalation branch
Watch
  • 10Y yield closes below 4.60
  • MOVE index drops below 68
  • NFP/CPI schedule shows no surprise >0.2pp
25% [n=40] Brier 0.313
Financial↘56%
Breadth momentum at -8 with VIX spike in moderate dispersion regime, consistent with selective leadership over broad beta
2-day forecastBroad equities likely to face mild pressure over next 2 sessions if rates hold elevated above 4.65%, with quality/AI proxies expected to outperform on any continued dispersion >1.8
Watch
  • VIX closes above 19
  • Breadth momentum stays below -5
  • SPX/NDX dispersion index holds >1.8
35% [n=40] Brier 0.290
Commodity↗58%
Energy and grains at extended 30d gains (+27% crude, +12-16% ag) within reflation regime, with 1d oil pullback
2-day forecastCommodity complex likely to stabilize firm over next 2 sessions if USD stays below recent highs, with oil expected to hold above $87 on any China demand confirmation
Watch
  • Crude holds above $87.50
  • Grains ETF momentum stays >+50
  • USDJPY remains below 165
35% [n=40] Brier 0.306
Currency↗57%
USDJPY at +2.17σ alert and EURUSD at -1.94σ watch amid rate differentials and stable geo-risk
2-day forecastDollar likely to extend firmness over next 2 sessions if 10Y real yields hold positive, with EURUSD expected lower on continued reflation data prints
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.135
  • USDJPY holds above 163
  • 10Y-2Y spread stays >85bp
25% [n=40] Brier 0.310
Crypto↘54%
BTC showing relative weakness (-1.7% 5d) versus quality tech proxies amid VIX elevation and reflation pressures
2-day forecastCrypto likely to see further pressure over next 2 sessions if VIX remains above 18 or breadth momentum stays negative, with dominance shift toward defensives
Watch
  • BTC breaks below $62000
  • VIX holds above 19
  • ETH/BTC ratio declines >2%
32% [n=40] Brier 0.258

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Yields at ALERT extremes (+2.49-2.83σ) after 5d surge amid reflation data and sentiment drop, setting up mean-reversion pullback
Financial↘
Breadth momentum at -8 with VIX spike in moderate dispersion regime, consistent with selective leadership over broad beta
Commodity↗
Energy and grains at extended 30d gains (+27% crude, +12-16% ag) within reflation regime, with 1d oil pullback
Currency↗
USDJPY at +2.17σ alert and EURUSD at -1.94σ watch amid rate differentials and stable geo-risk
Crypto↘
BTC showing relative weakness (-1.7% 5d) versus quality tech proxies amid VIX elevation and reflation pressures

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^IRX * equity $3.80 $3.80 +2.83σ 60d alert LONG
^TNX equity $4.70 $4.70 +2.49σ 60d alert LONG
USDJPY=X * equity $163.79 $163.79 +2.17σ 30d alert LONG
EURUSD=X * equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.94σ 252d watch SHORT
IWM equity $294.57 $291.17 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.70 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$4 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 11.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$2.10
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 24.3% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.21

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Mid-2026 geopolitical risk is contained with primary hotspots in the Middle East and Western Pacific transmitting modestly to oil and FX via second-order supply and safe-haven flows; no orthogonal tape confirmation of broad risk-premia expansion, consistent with GMT-weighted de-escalation equilibria.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel proxy clashes in Levant and Gulf with calibrated strikes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Stalemate in Ukraine with intermittent Black Sea corridor threats

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Western Pacific medium

Chinese live-fire drills near Taiwan Strait

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, ES=F
horizon: 7d
Top tail risk medium high

State-linked cyber operation targeting European LNG terminals

Invalidate if: Independent verification of stable physical flows and absence of confirmed attribution

Hotspot calibration: 140/193 hits (73%), Brier 0.232 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-26

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+2.60
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) -1.00
1/5 above; NVDA:- AMD:+ TSM:- GOOGL:- MSFT:-
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.43, z=+1.86
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-26

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.31 | 3m 2.55 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.5% | 3m 28.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -9.1% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.56 (assets: 28)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 31% | High-Vol 19% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.31 | 3m 2.55 | 12m 2.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.5% | 3m 28.2% | 12m 39.7%
Drawdown
Current -9.1% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.56 (assets: 44)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (165d)119/25646% [40%-53%]+133.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/560% [23%-88%]+5.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.93 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (172d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1427d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1427d)310/66247% [43%-51%]+58.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)3/560% [23%-88%]+5.7%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.18 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.