The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-27 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
10Y at +2.49σ ALERT above 30d mean with normal curve and stable geo-risk setting up for mean-reversion
2-day forecastYields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if MOVE index fails to break above 75, with base-rate mean reversion kicking in from current extremes.
Watch
  • 10Y yield retreats below 4.60
  • 2s10s spread holds above 80bp
  • MOVE index <72
24% [n=41] Brier 0.316
Financial↗57%
QQQ at -1.83σ WATCH with AMD +1.81σ UP and 75% bullish direction ratio setting up for selective tech stabilization
2-day forecastQuality equities and AI proxies expected to outperform with mild upside over next 2 sessions if VIX remains below 18 and breadth momentum does not worsen.
Watch
  • VIX stays below 18
  • QQQ holds above 5d low
  • AMD maintains +1.5σ
34% [n=41] Brier 0.291
Commodity↗56%
Grains and broad commodities at +1.88σ with crude 1d drop but strong 30d reacceleration aligned with base case
2-day forecastCommodities likely to stabilize and resume mild firming over next 2 sessions if no negative China demand print, continuing reflation pressure.
Watch
  • Crude holds above $82
  • DBA above 5d average
  • Corn maintains +4% 5d gain
34% [n=41] Brier 0.307
Currency↘58%
EURUSD at -1.92σ WATCH with rate differentials and stable geo-risk supporting firmer USD
2-day forecastUSD expected to firm further vs EUR over next 2 sessions if 10Y holds above 4.6%, with EURUSD testing lower on continued differentials.
Watch
  • EURUSD below 1.135
  • 10Y-2Y spread stable
  • USDJPY above 163
24% [n=41] Brier 0.310
Crypto→53%
BTC near flat with low perpetual funding and stable regime setting up for equity tracking with limited downside
2-day forecastCrypto likely to remain range-bound to mildly higher over next 2 sessions if equity risk sentiment holds and ETF flows stay neutral.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 64000
  • VIX below 18
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
32% [n=41] Brier 0.258

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
10Y at +2.49σ ALERT above 30d mean with normal curve and stable geo-risk setting up for mean-reversion
Financial↗
QQQ at -1.83σ WATCH with AMD +1.81σ UP and 75% bullish direction ratio setting up for selective tech stabilization
Commodity↗
Grains and broad commodities at +1.88σ with crude 1d drop but strong 30d reacceleration aligned with base case
Currency↘
EURUSD at -1.92σ WATCH with rate differentials and stable geo-risk supporting firmer USD
Crypto→
BTC near flat with low perpetual funding and stable regime setting up for equity tracking with limited downside

Signals

0 Critical
1 Alert
4 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
^TNX equity $4.70 $4.70 +2.49σ 60d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.92σ 252d watch SHORT
DBA * equity $28.24 $28.24 +1.88σ 252d watch LONG
QQQ * equity $691.96 $691.96 -1.83σ 30d watch SHORT
AMD * equity $539.69 $539.69 +1.81σ 252d watch LONG
IWM equity $294.57 $294.67 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.64 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$4 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 11.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L +$0.06
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 24.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.27

Geopolitical Risk

0.38 stable

Core state tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe exhibit low transmission coefficients to primary nodes with oil and natgas curves showing minimal risk premia; secondary FX safe-haven flows and risk-asset correlation remain contained pending orthogonal confirmation.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow war with sporadic proxy strikes but no direct supply disruption

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Russia-Ukraine attrition with winter natgas storage at multi-year highs

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 30d
East Asia low

Elevated Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan without blockade signals

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 14d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iran-Israel kinetic exchange closing Strait of Hormuz for 10+ days

Invalidate if: Diplomatic backchannel progress or verifiable mutual de-escalation statements confirmed by multiple independent intermediaries

Hotspot calibration: 142/196 hits (72%), Brier 0.233 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-27

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.95
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) -1.00
1/5 above; NVDA:- AMD:+ TSM:- GOOGL:- MSFT:-
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.43, z=+1.86
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-27

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.31 | 3m 2.55 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.5% | 3m 28.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -9.1% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.56 (assets: 28)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 31% | High-Vol 19% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -2.31 | 3m 2.55 | 12m 2.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.5% | 3m 28.2% | 12m 39.7%
Drawdown
Current -9.1% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.56 (assets: 44)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (165d)119/25646% [40%-53%]+133.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-3.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.93 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (173d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1428d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1428d)310/66247% [43%-51%]+58.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-3.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.18 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.