The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-28 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘72%
ALERT +2.00σ rise in 10Y yields with normal curve, stable geo risk and restrictive front-end sets up mean reversion
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if real-yield trajectory does not accelerate and NFP print stays within 50k of consensus.
Watch
  • 10Y yield >4.70%
  • 2s/10s spread narrows below 70bp
  • MOVE index >75
30% [n=44] Brier 0.303
Financial↗70%
QQQ at -2.15σ DOWN and AMD at -1.70σ WATCH with high dispersion and selective AI/quality leadership in reflation regime
2-day forecastQQQ and quality tech likely to rebound over next 2 sessions if VIX stays below 20 and breadth momentum does not fall below -10, supporting selective outperformance.
Watch
  • VIX fails to break 20
  • QQQ holds above 670 level
  • tech sector rotation continues into AI proxies
32% [n=44] Brier 0.292
Commodity↗58%
Grains and energy reaccelerating (corn +15.1% 30d, crude +17.1% 30d) with broad +9.9% 30d amid reflation pressure and stable China demand prints
2-day forecastBroad commodities and grains likely to stabilize or continue higher over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 80 and no supply disruption news emerges from hotspots.
Watch
  • Crude oil >80.00
  • Corn holds above 470
  • No Middle East escalation signals
36% [n=44] Brier 0.299
Currency↘58%
EURUSD at -1.76σ DOWN with USDJPY firming on rate differentials and thesis of mildly firmer dollar vs rate-sensitive pairs
2-day forecastDollar likely to remain firm and EURUSD to edge lower over next 2 sessions if real-yield spreads persist and central bank divergence favors Fed.
Watch
  • EURUSD <1.135
  • 10Y real yield spread widens 5bp
  • USDJPY holds above 163
23% [n=44] Brier 0.310
Crypto→55%
BTC near flat with low geo transmission, elevated equity dispersion and no dominant ETF flow signal
2-day forecastCrypto likely to trade neutral with slight downside bias over next 2 sessions if equity risk leadership remains selective and VIX holds above 18.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 62000
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
  • VIX remains <22
32% [n=44] Brier 0.257

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
ALERT +2.00σ rise in 10Y yields with normal curve, stable geo risk and restrictive front-end sets up mean reversion
Financial↗
QQQ at -2.15σ DOWN and AMD at -1.70σ WATCH with high dispersion and selective AI/quality leadership in reflation regime
Commodity↗
Grains and energy reaccelerating (corn +15.1% 30d, crude +17.1% 30d) with broad +9.9% 30d amid reflation pressure and stable China demand prints
Currency↘
EURUSD at -1.76σ DOWN with USDJPY firming on rate differentials and thesis of mildly firmer dollar vs rate-sensitive pairs
Crypto→
BTC near flat with low geo transmission, elevated equity dispersion and no dominant ETF flow signal

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
QQQ equity $682.12 $682.12 -2.15σ 30d alert SHORT
^TNX equity $4.64 $4.64 +2.00σ 252d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.76σ 252d watch SHORT
AMD * equity $494.95 $494.95 -1.70σ 30d watch SHORT
IWM equity $294.57 $292.63 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.45 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$4 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 11.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$1.20
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.46

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Persistent military posturing in Ukraine, the Middle East, and East Asia generates headline risk but exhibits low transmission coefficients to core pricing channels, as evidenced by flat oil futures curves, stable EURUSD implied vols, and contained sovereign CDS moves; de-escalation equilibria via backchannel diplomacy and high spare capacity remain the higher-probability path over the 7-30 day window.

Eastern Europe medium

Russian incremental advances in Donbas with winter energy infrastructure threats

natgasoilfx
NG=F, CL=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Middle East medium

Israel-Hezbollah exchanges with Iranian proxy activation in Gulf shipping lanes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F, SPY
horizon: 14d
East Asia medium

PLA naval drills encircling Taiwan following US congressional delegation

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, USDCNH=X, ^GSPC
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz for >5 days

Invalidate if: Qatari and Egyptian mediation produces verifiable de-escalation commitments, confirmed by falling tanker war-risk premiums and resumed Iranian crude loadings

Hotspot calibration: 145/201 hits (72%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-28

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+2.05
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.81
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -1.00
real_yield_10y: latest=2.43, z=+1.63
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-28

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -1.96 | 3m 2.35 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.3% | 3m 28.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -9.2% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.55 (assets: 28)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 33% | High-Vol 17% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -1.96 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 2.75
Rolling Volatility
1m 23.3% | 3m 28.2% | 12m 39.2%
Drawdown
Current -9.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.55 (assets: 44)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (168d)119/25746% [40%-52%]+133.7%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/714% [3%-51%]-21.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.93 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (174d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1429d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1429d)310/66347% [43%-51%]+58.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/714% [3%-51%]-21.8%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.18 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.