The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-29 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘62%
10Y yields at +2.00σ alert after sharp 30d rise with normal curve and stable geo-risk transmission
2-day forecastYields likely to mean revert lower over next 2 sessions if no hot data surprises, expect 10Y to ease if VIX stays below 20
Watch
  • 10Y yield drops below 4.50
  • 2s10s spread widens more than 8bp
  • MOVE index falls below 68
29% [n=45] Brier 0.305
Financial↗64%
QQQ at -2.15σ alert low with AMD -1.70σ and contracting breadth in reflation regime
2-day forecastQQQ likely to rebound from extremes over next 2 sessions if yields ease, with selective AI leadership expected above 1% session gain
Watch
  • QQQ rises above 1.0% in one session
  • VIX declines below 17.5
  • 10Y yield falls 8bp or more
31% [n=45] Brier 0.293
Commodity↗57%
Oil at +17.5% 30d reacceleration with grains firm and modest Middle East transmission per GMT2
2-day forecastCommodities likely to consolidate firm if no de-escalation, with crude expected to hold key support on any USD weakness
Watch
  • Crude oil holds above 81.50
  • Gold remains above 4050
  • No material de-escalation signals from hotspots
36% [n=45] Brier 0.299
Currency↗59%
EURUSD at -1.93σ extremes with USD firm on rate differentials but mean reversion setup active
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to rebound from statistical extremes over next 2 sessions if yields decline, expecting lift unless strong US data
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks above 1.145
  • 10Y yield eases below 4.55
  • USDJPY falls below 162.50
22% [n=45] Brier 0.311
Crypto↗54%
BTC mild 30d gains in low dispersion regime with limited geopolitical cascade
2-day forecastCrypto likely to track equity reversion higher over next 2 sessions if financials stabilize, with BTC expected to hold 64000 level
Watch
  • BTC advances above 65500
  • VIX closes below 18
  • ETH/BTC ratio stabilizes
31% [n=45] Brier 0.257

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
10Y yields at +2.00σ alert after sharp 30d rise with normal curve and stable geo-risk transmission
Financial↗
QQQ at -2.15σ alert low with AMD -1.70σ and contracting breadth in reflation regime
Commodity↗
Oil at +17.5% 30d reacceleration with grains firm and modest Middle East transmission per GMT2
Currency↗
EURUSD at -1.93σ extremes with USD firm on rate differentials but mean reversion setup active
Crypto↗
BTC mild 30d gains in low dispersion regime with limited geopolitical cascade

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
3 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
QQQ equity $682.12 $682.12 -2.15σ 30d alert SHORT
^TNX * equity $4.64 $4.64 +2.00σ 252d alert LONG
EURUSD=X equity $1.14 $1.14 -1.93σ 252d watch SHORT
AMD equity $494.95 $494.95 -1.70σ 30d watch SHORT
TLT * equity $83.75 $83.75 -1.60σ 252d watch SHORT
IWM equity $294.57 $293.92 — — held HELD
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.40 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.16 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
$4 · 4d
exposure $182 · 1 position · σ 11.4% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$0.40
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 25.5% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.51

Geopolitical Risk

0.37 stable

Contained state tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe maintain modest transmission to energy channels while East Asian posturing keeps safe-haven FX and gold on watch; independent tape signals show limited cascade into broad risk assets with diplomatic off-ramps visible.

Middle East medium

Iran-Israel shadow conflict with proxy strikes near key shipping lanes

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe medium

Ukraine frontline stalemate ahead of winter with Russian energy posturing

natgasfxrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X, TLT
horizon: 21d
Western Pacific low

Chinese naval drills near Taiwan amid US freedom-of-navigation operations

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD, ES=F
horizon: 18d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct Iran-Israel strike closing Strait of Hormuz for weeks

Invalidate if: Rapid diplomatic intervention by US-China backchannels leading to mutual de-escalation commitments

Hotspot calibration: 145/204 hits (71%), Brier 0.231 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-29

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-2 JPY carry direction +1.00
USDJPY=X: z21=+1.52
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-3 QQQ/SPY ratio (growth bid) -1.00
QQQ/SPY: z21=-1.81
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/4 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.81, z=+2.08
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-29

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.89 | 3m 1.46 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.6% | 3m 29.4% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -14.6% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.73 (assets: 29)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 29% | High-Vol 21% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -3.89 | 3m 1.46 | 12m 2.57
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.6% | 3m 29.4% | 12m 39.4%
Drawdown
Current -14.6% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.73 (assets: 44)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (169d)118/26045% [39%-51%]+109.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/922% [6%-55%]-34.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.79 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (175d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1430d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1430d)309/66646% [43%-50%]+48.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)2/922% [6%-55%]-34.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.13 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.