The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-07-31 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
TNX +2.02σ and TLT -2.26σ at ALERT extremes with front-end rates firm in reflation setup
2-day forecastYields likely to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if economic data does not exceed consensus, with 10Y expected to retreat below 4.60% as 7-day probability slope flattens
Watch
  • 10Y yield closes below 4.55
  • MOVE index fails to break above 72
  • No hotter-than-expected CPI print
28% [n=47] Brier 0.312
Financial↗62%
QQQ -1.63σ WATCH with bearish bias streak 3 and selective AI strength setting up for mean reversion
2-day forecastSelective quality and QQQ likely to rebound over next 2 sessions if breadth momentum improves from -3, with NDX expected to test 690 if VIX stays below 17
Watch
  • QQQ closes above 670
  • Dispersion index holds above 1.5
  • MSFT/NVDA maintain positive 1d momentum
32% [n=47] Brier 0.293
Commodity↗58%
Crude +23.8% (30d) and grains reaccelerating with low geo cascade confirming reflation channel
2-day forecastEnergy and grains likely to consolidate firm over next 2 sessions if no de-escalation signals emerge, with crude expected to hold above 84 on USD interaction
Watch
  • Crude holds above 83.50
  • Broad commodities ETF momentum stays positive
  • No meaningful supply release from OPEC
36% [n=47] Brier 0.297
Currency↗59%
EURUSD +1.72σ WATCH with USDJPY weakening, setting up for USD mean-reversion firmness on differentials
2-day forecastUSD likely to firm over next 2 sessions as EURUSD mean-reverts from +1.72σ if geo risk remains stable, with USDJPY expected to rebound above 161
Watch
  • EURUSD fails to break above 1.16
  • Real-yield spread widens in favor of USD
  • DXY holds above 100
23% [n=47] Brier 0.309
Crypto→54%
BTC near flat 30d with low funding rates and equity dispersion limiting contagion
2-day forecastCrypto likely to trade neutrally to slightly higher over next 2 sessions if equity mean-reversion trigger hits, with BTC expected to hold 62000-65000 range on ETF flows
Watch
  • BTC holds above 62000
  • VIX remains below 17
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
30% [n=47] Brier 0.257

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX +2.02σ and TLT -2.26σ at ALERT extremes with front-end rates firm in reflation setup
Financial↗
QQQ -1.63σ WATCH with bearish bias streak 3 and selective AI strength setting up for mean reversion
Commodity↗
Crude +23.8% (30d) and grains reaccelerating with low geo cascade confirming reflation channel
Currency↗
EURUSD +1.72σ WATCH with USDJPY weakening, setting up for USD mean-reversion firmness on differentials
Crypto→
BTC near flat 30d with low funding rates and equity dispersion limiting contagion

Signals

0 Critical
2 Alert
2 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
TLT equity $82.80 $82.80 -2.26σ 252d alert SHORT
^TNX equity $4.66 $4.66 +2.02σ 252d alert LONG
EURUSD=X * equity $1.15 $1.15 +1.72σ 30d watch LONG
QQQ * equity $683.55 $683.55 -1.63σ 60d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.45 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 25.3% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.46

Geopolitical Risk

0.52 stable

Tensions persist in the Middle East and Eastern Europe with periodic proxy incidents, yet diplomatic channels and physical market data indicate contained transmission primarily via energy premiums; risk assets show resilience with limited cascade into rates or broad FX.

Persian Gulf medium

Iranian proxy strikes on shipping lanes and Israeli responses in Lebanon/Syria

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Stalemate in Ukraine with Russian incremental gains and EU winter natgas storage concerns

natgasrates
NG=F, ZN=F
horizon: 21d
East Asia medium

Chinese naval patrols and drills near Taiwan amid semiconductor export disputes

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, SPX
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk medium high

Major escalation in Ukraine involving NATO supply lines triggering energy export bans

Invalidate if: Progress in Turkey or China-brokered talks results in localized ceasefires and resumed Black Sea grain/energy flows

Hotspot calibration: 150/211 hits (71%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-07-31

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+2.36; USDJPY=X: z=-2.64; CNY=X: z=-2.58
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) -1.00
1/5 above; NVDA:- AMD:- TSM:- GOOGL:- MSFT:+
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.87, z=+2.51
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-07-31

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.31 | 3m 1.11 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 26.5% | 3m 30.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -16.6% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.71 (assets: 29)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 28% | High-Vol 22% | Trend 47% | Mean-Rev 3%
Current: trend (47%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -6.31 | 3m 1.11 | 12m 2.41
Rolling Volatility
1m 26.5% | 3m 30.5% | 12m 39.3%
Drawdown
Current -16.6% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.71 (assets: 44)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 47% | Mean-Rev 3%
Current: trend (47%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (171d)117/26245% [39%-51%]+97.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/100% [0%-28%]-49.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (177d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1432d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1432d)308/66846% [42%-50%]+44.4%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/100% [0%-28%]-49.0%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.10 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.