The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-01 04:34 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘64%
Yields at +2.47σ alert with normal curve and data calendar set up for mean reversion
2-day forecastYields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if NFP prints below 180k or CPI confirms -0.4% trend, expecting TNX to test sub-4.60 on soft data
Watch
  • If 10Y yield breaks below 4.60 then acceleration lower
  • NFP <180k or CPI miss
  • 2s/10s spread widens >10bp
28% [n=47] Brier 0.312
Financial↗55%
High dispersion with quality AI proxies outperforming small caps and cyclicals
2-day forecastSelective equity leadership likely to continue over next 2 sessions if VIX stays below 16.5 and NDX/Russell ratio rises, with quality names expected to outperform broad beta
Watch
  • If VIX remains <16.5 then selective outperformance
  • NDX breadth improves >0.5%
  • SPX holds above 745
32% [n=47] Brier 0.293
Commodity↗58%
Energy at 30d highs with broad comm +11.3% while ags show 5d pullback in reflation regime
2-day forecastCommodities likely to hold or extend mildly higher over next 2 sessions if no de-escalation in hotspots and USD firms modestly, with crude expected to remain above 83.5
Watch
  • If crude holds >83.5 then reflation continuation
  • No supply disruption news
  • China demand proxy > consensus
36% [n=47] Brier 0.297
Currency↗72%
EURUSD at +3.03σ critical extreme with rate differentials and USDJPY weakness setting up dollar rebound
2-day forecastDollar likely to firm over next 2 sessions with EURUSD reverting from statistical extremes if 10Y holds supportive levels, expecting EURUSD toward 1.13-1.14
Watch
  • If EURUSD fails to hold 1.15 then reversion accelerates
  • 10Y real yield >2.2%
  • ECB signals no further dovishness
23% [n=47] Brier 0.309
Crypto↘53%
BTC showing mild 30d weakness with selective equity leadership and neutral funding
2-day forecastCrypto likely to trade with downside bias over next 2 sessions if equity dispersion widens further or VIX rebounds above 17, with BTC expected to test sub-61000
Watch
  • If BTC breaks below 61000 then further pressure
  • ETF flows turn negative
  • If NDX underperforms SPX
30% [n=47] Brier 0.257

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Yields at +2.47σ alert with normal curve and data calendar set up for mean reversion
Financial↗
High dispersion with quality AI proxies outperforming small caps and cyclicals
Commodity↗
Energy at 30d highs with broad comm +11.3% while ags show 5d pullback in reflation regime
Currency↗
EURUSD at +3.03σ critical extreme with rate differentials and USDJPY weakness setting up dollar rebound
Crypto↘
BTC showing mild 30d weakness with selective equity leadership and neutral funding

Signals

1 Critical
2 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
EURUSD=X equity $1.15 $1.15 +3.03σ 30d critical SHORT
TLT equity $82.25 $82.25 -2.63σ 252d alert SHORT
^TNX equity $4.74 $4.74 +2.47σ 60d alert LONG
IEF * equity $92.95 $92.95 -1.97σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.33 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.17 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.58

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Persistent but contained tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, and East Asia show limited market coupling due to adapted supply chains, high inventories, and active backchannel diplomacy; transmission to commodities and risk assets remains muted with second-order effects dominating.

Middle East medium

Israel-Hezbollah border clashes with Iranian proxy involvement

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD, USDJPY=X
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe medium

Risk of renewed Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter

natgasrates
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
East Asia low

Chinese military drills near Taiwan following US defense package approval

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, GLD
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Israel and Iran closing Strait of Hormuz

Invalidate if: De-escalation via Saudi-mediated talks or confirmed US-Iran backchannel progress leading to sanctions relief

Hotspot calibration: 153/215 hits (71%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-01

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+2.90; USDJPY=X: z=-3.46; CNY=X: z=-1.88
Income −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.03
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.84, z=+1.72
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-01

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.77 | 3m -0.45 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 32.2% | 3m 33.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -25.7% | Max -25.7%
ENB
3.83 (assets: 29)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 20% | High-Vol 30% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.77 | 3m -0.45 | 12m 1.95
Rolling Volatility
1m 32.2% | 3m 33.5% | 12m 39.5%
Drawdown
Current -25.7% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.83 (assets: 44)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 35% | High-Vol 15% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (172d)118/26345% [39%-51%]+85.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/80% [0%-32%]-37.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.65 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (178d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1433d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1433d)309/66946% [42%-50%]+39.9%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/80% [0%-32%]-37.6%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.08 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.