The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-02 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↗58%
10Y yields at +2.47σ alert and TLT -2.64σ amid reflationary commodity moves and normal curve
2-day forecastYields likely to continue firm or edge higher over next 2 sessions if NFP exceeds 200k or oil holds above $85; expect mild upside continuation unless de-escalation signals emerge from Eastern Europe
Watch
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.80
  • NFP print >200k
  • Crude sustains >85
28% [n=47] Brier 0.312
Financial↗56%
High dispersion (2.53) with selective AI proxies (MSFT +19.4% 5d) and energy outperforming broad indices and RUT
2-day forecastSelective risk assets likely to see mild outperformance over next 2 sessions if VIX remains below 16 and dispersion stays elevated; expect quality/AI leadership to persist unless breadth momentum flips below -5
Watch
  • VIX holds below 16
  • NDX outperforms SPX by >0.5%
  • Russell2000 fails to reclaim 292
32% [n=47] Brier 0.293
Commodity↗58%
Energy and broad commodities in reflation mode (crude +23.5% 30d, broad +11.3%) with geo hotspots transmitting via second-order supply
2-day forecastCommodities expected to consolidate with upward bias over next 2 sessions if no major de-escalation from Persian Gulf or Eastern Europe; upside likely if crude breaks 85.50 on inventory draws
Watch
  • Crude >85.50
  • No de-escalation headlines
  • Wheat holds above 630
36% [n=47] Brier 0.297
Currency↘70%
EURUSD at critical +3.03σ extended rally while USD softens against rate-sensitive crosses amid stable geo risk
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to mean-revert lower over next 2 sessions if 10Y yields rise >5bp or risk sentiment stabilizes further; expect pullback if it fails to hold above 1.155
Watch
  • EURUSD fails 1.155
  • 10Y yield +5bp or more
  • VIX closes below 15.5
23% [n=47] Brier 0.309
Crypto↘55%
BTC -3.0% 1d lagging selective equity strength with high dispersion and no clear ETF flow catalyst
2-day forecastCrypto likely to remain soft or decline over next 2 sessions if equity breadth stays narrow and dominance does not shift; expect continued underperformance unless BTC reclaims 64000 on risk-on trigger
Watch
  • BTC breaks below 62000
  • Equity dispersion index >2.5
  • Negative spot ETF flows
30% [n=47] Brier 0.257

Market Situation

Interest Rates↗
10Y yields at +2.47σ alert and TLT -2.64σ amid reflationary commodity moves and normal curve
Financial↗
High dispersion (2.53) with selective AI proxies (MSFT +19.4% 5d) and energy outperforming broad indices and RUT
Commodity↗
Energy and broad commodities in reflation mode (crude +23.5% 30d, broad +11.3%) with geo hotspots transmitting via second-order supply
Currency↘
EURUSD at critical +3.03σ extended rally while USD softens against rate-sensitive crosses amid stable geo risk
Crypto↘
BTC -3.0% 1d lagging selective equity strength with high dispersion and no clear ETF flow catalyst

Signals

1 Critical
2 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
EURUSD=X equity $1.15 $1.15 +3.03σ 30d critical SHORT
TLT * equity $82.25 $82.25 -2.64σ 252d alert SHORT
^TNX * equity $4.74 $4.74 +2.47σ 60d alert LONG
IEF equity $92.95 $92.95 -1.97σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.60 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.19 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.9% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.31

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East proxy clashes and Eastern European energy threats transmit modestly into oil and natgas curves via second-order supply fears, while Indo-Pacific posturing lifts safe-haven FX and depresses risk sentiment; overall coupling remains contained by high inventories, diplomatic channels, and reflexive de-escalation incentives.

Persian Gulf medium

Iran-backed militia strikes on Gulf shipping and reported Israeli covert ops against Iranian proxies

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GC=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe high

Russian strikes on Ukrainian natgas transit infrastructure ahead of winter demand

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
Taiwan Strait medium

Large-scale Chinese PLA air and naval drills encircling Taiwan

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, ^GSPC
horizon: 10d
Top tail risk medium high

Coordinated cyberattacks on European LNG terminals triggering acute natgas shortage

Invalidate if: Mild early winter weather data combined with accelerated EU supply diversification agreements

Hotspot calibration: 155/219 hits (71%), Brier 0.228 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-02

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+2.90; USDJPY=X: z=-3.46; CNY=X: z=-1.88
Income −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.03
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.84, z=+1.72
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-02

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.67 | 3m 0.29 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.3% | 3m 30.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -21.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.80 (assets: 29)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.67 | 3m 0.29 | 12m 2.14
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.3% | 3m 30.5% | 12m 38.9%
Drawdown
Current -21.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.80 (assets: 44)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (172d)119/26445% [39%-51%]+91.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/60% [0%-39%]-24.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.67 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (179d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1434d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1434d)310/67046% [43%-50%]+42.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/60% [0%-39%]-24.9%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.09 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.