The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-03 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘64%
Yields at +2.47σ UP with TLT -2.66σ and IEF -1.96σ setting up for mean reversion in rates
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to decline over next 2 sessions if ^TNX momentum slope drops below +50, with mean reversion from extended levels on stable geo risk
Watch
  • ^TNX closes below prior 2-day low
  • TLT rebounds more than 1.0%
  • 2s/10s spread widens by 5bp
27% [n=48] Brier 0.313
Financial↘54%
Indices with 50% neutral direction ratio, breadth momentum -3 and high 2.53 dispersion showing mixed sector rotation
2-day forecastSPX and NDX likely to drift lower over next 2 sessions if VIX rises above 17, as contracting breadth favors defensive rotation amid yield extremes
Watch
  • VIX closes above 17
  • Russell2000 lags SPX by 0.5% or more
  • breadth momentum falls below -4
33% [n=48] Brier 0.289
Commodity↗57%
Crude at sharp 1d reversal -5.9% while 30d +16.0%, broad commodities +11.3% 30d with stable geo transmission
2-day forecastKey commodities likely to stabilize to slightly higher over next 2 sessions if crude holds above 78.50, with mean reversion in overextended grains offsetting oil pullback
Watch
  • Crude holds above 78.50
  • copper rises above 6.60
  • broad commodity ETF momentum stays above +40
38% [n=48] Brier 0.295
Currency↘68%
EURUSD at +2.96σ UP extended rally with USDJPY -4.2% 5d and stable commodity currencies
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to mean revert lower over next 2 sessions if it fails to hold 1.15, as orthogonal tape confirmation and stable geo risk favor reversion from extremes
Watch
  • EURUSD closes below 1.145
  • USDJPY rises above 158
  • USDCNY rises more than 0.5%
23% [n=48] Brier 0.310
Crypto→53%
BTC -3.2% over 5d with low VIX and no critical sigma signal in stable risk regime
2-day forecastBTC likely to trade neutrally to slightly lower over next 2 sessions if NDX weakens, with perpetual funding and ETF flows as key monitors for any shift
Watch
  • BTC holds above 61000
  • ETH/BTC dominance stable
  • VIX remains below 17
29% [n=48] Brier 0.258

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Yields at +2.47σ UP with TLT -2.66σ and IEF -1.96σ setting up for mean reversion in rates
Financial↘
Indices with 50% neutral direction ratio, breadth momentum -3 and high 2.53 dispersion showing mixed sector rotation
Commodity↗
Crude at sharp 1d reversal -5.9% while 30d +16.0%, broad commodities +11.3% 30d with stable geo transmission
Currency↘
EURUSD at +2.96σ UP extended rally with USDJPY -4.2% 5d and stable commodity currencies
Crypto→
BTC -3.2% over 5d with low VIX and no critical sigma signal in stable risk regime

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
EURUSD=X equity $1.15 $1.15 +2.96σ 30d alert LONG
TLT equity $82.25 $82.25 -2.66σ 252d alert SHORT
^TNX equity $4.74 $4.74 +2.47σ 60d alert LONG
IEF equity $92.95 $92.95 -1.96σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.43 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.19 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 26.2% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.47

Geopolitical Risk

0.47 stable

Diplomatic backchannels and economic self-interest have capped transmission from Ukraine, Middle East, and Indo-Pacific tensions into tradable channels; oil and natgas show shallow contango while risk-assets and funding FX exhibit only modest safe-haven flows.

Middle East medium

Israel-Iran proxy incidents along Lebanese border with no direct energy infrastructure hits

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Stalemate in Ukraine with intermittent strikes but active ceasefire negotiations

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese naval patrols near Taiwan amid routine US freedom-of-navigation operations

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, SPY
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk medium high

Rapid Russian escalation in Ukraine cutting European natgas flows

Invalidate if: Announcement of phased ceasefire framework or observable increase in Russian export volumes via non-pipeline routes

Hotspot calibration: 159/223 hits (71%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-03

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+2.32; USDJPY=X: z=-3.56; CNY=X: z=-2.41
Income −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.03
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.84, z=+1.72
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-03

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.67 | 3m 0.29 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.3% | 3m 30.5% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -21.0% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.80 (assets: 29)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 32% | High-Vol 18% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -8.67 | 3m 0.29 | 12m 2.14
Rolling Volatility
1m 24.3% | 3m 30.5% | 12m 38.9%
Drawdown
Current -21.0% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.80 (assets: 44)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (172d)119/26445% [39%-51%]+91.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/425% [5%-70%]-20.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.67 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (180d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1435d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1435d)310/67046% [43%-50%]+42.0%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/425% [5%-70%]-20.3%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.09 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.