The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-04 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘68%
Yields at +2.47σ on ^TNX with normal curve setting up for mean-reversion as real-yield trajectory peaks
2-day forecastYields likely to decline over next 2 sessions if 2s/10s spread holds above 30bp and real yields do not accelerate higher.
Watch
  • 10Y yield drops below 4.60
  • 2s/10s spread widens by 5bp
  • MOVE index falls below 68
25% [n=51] Brier 0.317
Financial↘55%
Contracting breadth momentum at -5 with high dispersion and rising yields creating defensive equity setup
2-day forecastBroad equities likely to drift lower over next 2 sessions if breadth momentum stays below -3 and VIX holds under 17.
Watch
  • SPX closes below 5-day low
  • breadth momentum worsens below -6
  • VIX rises above 17
31% [n=51] Brier 0.292
Commodity→57%
Commodity moves mixed with crude oil reversing 5d losses while copper extends and geo risks remain stable
2-day forecastBroad commodities expected to stabilize or pull back over next 2 sessions if crude holds below 80 and China demand prints remain neutral.
Watch
  • Crude oil falls below 78.50
  • copper retreats below 6.50
  • gold holds above 4100
35% [n=51] Brier 0.298
Currency↘70%
EURUSD at +2.95σ UP extreme with 7d momentum +75 setting up for mean reversion versus rate differentials
2-day forecastEURUSD likely to pull back over next 2 sessions if it fails to hold 1.15 and real-yield spreads favor USD.
Watch
  • EURUSD breaks below 1.148
  • USDCNY rises above 6.76
  • 10Y yield holds above 4.70
22% [n=51] Brier 0.318
Crypto↘54%
BTC near 63700 with low VIX but exposed to funding rates and equity breadth contraction
2-day forecastCrypto likely to consolidate lower over next 2 sessions if BTC fails to hold 63000 and equity dispersion remains elevated.
Watch
  • BTC drops below 62000
  • ETH/BTC ratio falls below 0.05
  • VIX rises above 17
27% [n=51] Brier 0.259

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
Yields at +2.47σ on ^TNX with normal curve setting up for mean-reversion as real-yield trajectory peaks
Financial↘
Contracting breadth momentum at -5 with high dispersion and rising yields creating defensive equity setup
Commodity→
Commodity moves mixed with crude oil reversing 5d losses while copper extends and geo risks remain stable
Currency↘
EURUSD at +2.95σ UP extreme with 7d momentum +75 setting up for mean reversion versus rate differentials
Crypto↘
BTC near 63700 with low VIX but exposed to funding rates and equity breadth contraction

Signals

0 Critical
3 Alert
1 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
EURUSD=X * equity $1.15 $1.15 +2.95σ 30d alert LONG
TLT equity $81.92 $81.92 -2.66σ 252d alert SHORT
^TNX equity $4.74 $4.74 +2.47σ 60d alert LONG
IEF equity $92.63 $92.63 -1.96σ 252d watch SHORT
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.80 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.19 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$1 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 25.8% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.11

Geopolitical Risk

0.42 stable

Middle East proxy actions and Ukraine front-line activity show persistent but contained transmission primarily into energy forwards, while Indo-Pacific naval signaling adds FX and risk-premium pressure; independent tape confirmation is weak and diplomatic channels indicate viable de-escalation paths that cap upside risk to commodities and risk assets over 7-30 days.

Middle East medium

Iranian proxy strikes on Gulf shipping lanes with Israeli retaliatory signals

oilrisk_assets
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 18d
Eastern Europe high

Stalemate in Ukraine with Russian winter natgas flow negotiations

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 12d
Indo-Pacific medium

Chinese increased patrols near Taiwan paired with US semiconductor curbs

fxrisk_assets
USDJPY=X, TLT
horizon: 25d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Strait of Hormuz for >5 days

Invalidate if: Third-party mediated indirect talks produce verifiable naval stand-down or ceasefire framework

Hotspot calibration: 164/228 hits (72%), Brier 0.230 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-04

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral — leaning risk-off
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+1.86; USDJPY=X: z=-2.60; CNY=X: z=-2.19
Income −1 risk-off
3/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-2 IWM/SPY ratio (small-cap appetite) -1.00
IWM/SPY: z21=-2.03
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-2 HY credit spread z-score -1.00
credit_hy: latest=2.84, z=+1.72
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-04

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.41 | 3m -0.34 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.3% | 3m 30.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -21.2% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.91 (assets: 29)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.41 | 3m -0.34 | 12m 2.28
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.3% | 3m 30.2% | 12m 38.1%
Drawdown
Current -21.2% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.91 (assets: 44)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 38% | High-Vol 12% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (175d)119/26545% [39%-51%]+90.8%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.67 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (181d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1436d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1436d)310/67146% [42%-50%]+42.1%Longs only
Recent (7d)0/20% [0%-66%]-12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.09 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.