The Silk Risk Dashboard

2026-08-05 04:35 · v1.0
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE

Market Panels — 2-day forecast

Interest Rates↘65%
TNX at +1.75σ WATCH atop normal curve with stable geo risk and no imminent FOMC, clear mean-reversion setup in yields
2-day forecast10Y yields likely to revert lower over next 2 sessions if real-yield trajectory eases from highs and NFP calendar stays quiet; expect pullback on any risk-on confirmation.
Watch
  • TNX breaks below 4.55%
  • 2s/10s spread widens >5bp
  • VIX spikes above 18
27% [n=52] Brier 0.314
Financial↗56%
QQQ and IWM at WATCH sigma with bullish direction ratio strengthening +23pp but breadth momentum stuck at -3 and high dispersion
2-day forecastEquities expected to grind modestly higher over next 2 sessions if breadth momentum improves above -2 and VIX stays below 17, though contracting participation skews upside limited.
Watch
  • SPX holds above 765 with rising advance-decline
  • VIX remains below 17
  • tech sector outperforms by >1%
31% [n=52] Brier 0.292
Commodity→58%
Gold and silver extending while crude and natgas show limited geo transmission in stable regime with weak orthogonal confirmation per GMT5
2-day forecastBroad commodities likely to stabilize or tilt modestly lower over next 2 sessions if no escalation news from Hormuz or Eastern Europe; gold to hold if USD weakens further.
Watch
  • Crude holds above 75.50 on any supply news
  • Gold fails below 4150
  • DXY rebounds >0.3%
35% [n=52] Brier 0.298
Currency↗72%
USDJPY at -3.09σ CRITICAL DOWN extremes and EURUSD at +1.90σ WATCH with stable geo limiting safe-haven flows
2-day forecastDollar expected to mean-revert higher vs JPY and stabilize vs EUR over next 2 sessions if equities hold gains and risk sentiment remains stable; reversion trigger on any USDJPY lift above key support.
Watch
  • USDJPY clears 156.00
  • EURUSD fails below 1.155
  • 10Y real yield holds above 2.1%
21% [n=52] Brier 0.321
Crypto↗54%
BTC rangebound near 64k with equities in WATCH rally but no clear perpetual funding shift or dominance breakout
2-day forecastCrypto likely to follow modest equity upside over next 2 sessions if BTC holds 63000 and funding rates stay neutral; expect outperformance only on equity breadth improvement.
Watch
  • BTC holds above 63000
  • ETH/BTC ratio stable
  • Equity VIX equivalent stays below 50
27% [n=52] Brier 0.259

Market Situation

Interest Rates↘
TNX at +1.75σ WATCH atop normal curve with stable geo risk and no imminent FOMC, clear mean-reversion setup in yields
Financial↗
QQQ and IWM at WATCH sigma with bullish direction ratio strengthening +23pp but breadth momentum stuck at -3 and high dispersion
Commodity→
Gold and silver extending while crude and natgas show limited geo transmission in stable regime with weak orthogonal confirmation per GMT5
Currency↗
USDJPY at -3.09σ CRITICAL DOWN extremes and EURUSD at +1.90σ WATCH with stable geo limiting safe-haven flows
Crypto↗
BTC rangebound near 64k with equities in WATCH rally but no clear perpetual funding shift or dominance breakout

Signals

1 Critical
0 Alert
7 Watch
Click row for details
Asset Class Entry Current Z-Score Window Level Trade
USDJPY=X * equity $157.53 $157.53 -3.09σ 30d critical LONG
IWM * equity $301.71 $301.71 +1.99σ 30d watch LONG
TLT equity $82.82 $82.82 -1.91σ 252d watch SHORT
EURUSD=X equity $1.15 $1.15 +1.90σ 30d watch LONG
^TNX equity $4.63 $4.63 +1.75σ 252d watch LONG
QQQ * equity $723.85 $723.85 +1.54σ 252d watch LONG
NVDA * equity $211.94 $211.94 +1.53σ 30d watch LONG
AMD * equity $518.58 $518.58 +1.53σ 252d watch LONG
AVAX-USD crypto $9.90 $6.67 — — held HELD
ADA-USD crypto $0.27 $0.19 — — held HELD

Risk

Core
n/a
no open positions
Commodities
n/a
no open positions
Crypto
$0 · 4d
exposure $10 · 2 positions · σ 21.1% annual (21d realized)
P&L -$3.24

Geopolitical Risk

0.48 stable

Middle East proxy clashes and Eastern European energy rhetoric drive localized premia in oil and natgas but show limited second-order coupling into global rates or broad risk assets; independent tape confirmation remains weak and diplomatic backchannels point to contained transmission over the 7-30 day window.

Persian Gulf medium

Iran-backed militia strikes on shipping lanes near Hormuz

oil
CL=F, GLD
horizon: 14d
Eastern Europe medium

Russian threats to restrict natgas transit to Europe pre-winter

natgasfx
NG=F, EURUSD=X
horizon: 21d
South China Sea low

Increased PLAN drills around Taiwan amid US freedom-of-navigation operations

risk_assetsfx
USDJPY=X, GC=F
horizon: 30d
Top tail risk low severe

Direct kinetic exchange between Iran and Israel closing Hormuz for >5 days

Invalidate if: US-Iran backchannel talks produce verifiable de-escalation and reduced naval posture within 10 days

Hotspot calibration: 165/229 hits (72%), Brier 0.229 — horizons resolved on affected_assets vs predicted market_channels

snapshot 2026-08-05

Finance View — Three Sheets

Neutral
Cash Flow 0 neutral
2/4 signals agreeing
CF-1 CF-2 CF-3 CF-4 CF-5
CF-1 USD direction (DXY proxy) +1.00
EURUSD=X: z=+2.11; USDJPY=X: z=-2.18; CNY=X: z=-2.23
Income 0 neutral
2/5 signals agreeing
I-1 I-2 I-3 I-4 I-5
I-4 AI proxy breadth (above 50DMA) +1.00
4/5 above; NVDA:+ AMD:+ TSM:- GOOGL:+ MSFT:+
Balance Sheet 0 neutral
1/5 signals agreeing
B-1 B-2 B-3 B-4 B-5 B-6
B-3 Real yields z-score -0.72
real_yield_10y: latest=2.43, z=+1.07
Drift sizing tilt (equity + crypto only; commodity unaffected) 1× No drift tilt — (CF+0, BS+0) — not in the validated cells
Pending signals (not in vote): B-6
V-2 (5d SPY forward, 2022-01-03 → 2025-12-31, 1003d): risk_on_high PASS risk_off_high FAIL disagreement FAIL neutral FAIL
Panel shows regime call only — does NOT tilt strategy sizing (V-3 disagreement-as-drawdown predictor failed). See docs/research/finance_view_validation_2022-2025.md.

snapshot 2026-08-05

Sleeve Ledger — Money Management

MM Policy v1.1 effective 2026-06-10
NAV$100,000
Deployable$60,000(reserve 40%)
Drawdown+0.00%
As of2026-05-21
SleeveTargetBufferAdmission cap
silk_commodity_etf 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_commodity_futures 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_crypto 20% +5pp $15,000
silk_equity 40% +5pp $27,000
silk_futures 10% +5pp $9,000
Per-trade risk: 0.50% of deployable Sizing mode: risk-sizing Admission: off (default)

MM policy vv1.1 is the active production schema since 2026-06-10. Pre-2026-06-10 OOS / trade-log / backtest data is preserved unmodified — equity-curve rows are tagged pre_v1.0 for dates before policy lock. Source: docs/research/money_management_hybrid.md + docs/2026-05-21_sleeves_status.md.

Metrics

Core (Equity)

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.17 | 3m -0.45 | 12m n/a
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.3% | 3m 30.2% | 12m n/a
Drawdown
Current -21.5% | Max -22.3%
ENB
3.90 (assets: 29)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 30% | High-Vol 20% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Commodities

Rolling Sharpe
1m -0.72 | 3m -0.27 | 12m 1.89
Rolling Volatility
1m 35.2% | 3m 45.9% | 12m 42.3%
Drawdown
Current -22.2% | Max -54.9%
ENB
3.01 (assets: 13)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 23% | High-Vol 27% | Trend 42% | Mean-Rev 8%
Current: trend (42%)

Crypto

Rolling Sharpe
1m 4.53 | 3m 2.35 | 12m 1.97
Rolling Volatility
1m 45.0% | 3m 59.7% | 12m 74.3%
Drawdown
Current -0.5% | Max -96.1%
ENB
7.49 (assets: 8)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 40% | High-Vol 10% | Trend 32% | Mean-Rev 18%
Current: low_vol (40%)

Combined

Rolling Sharpe
1m -7.17 | 3m -0.45 | 12m 2.33
Rolling Volatility
1m 25.3% | 3m 30.2% | 12m 38.1%
Drawdown
Current -21.5% | Max -88.4%
ENB
3.90 (assets: 44)
Regime Probability
Low-Vol 37% | High-Vol 13% | Trend 48% | Mean-Rev 2%
Current: trend (48%)

Performance Scorecard

Core Forecast

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (1042d)574/129244% [42%-47%]+359.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (176d)119/26645% [39%-51%]+89.5%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-11.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.67 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Commodity OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2274/495946% [44%-47%]+183.7%Longs only
Out of Sample (182d)75/14253% [45%-61%]+6.2%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.51 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Crypto OOS

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Out of Sample (1437d)116/26444% [38%-50%]+12.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe-0.72 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Combined

WindowWins/TotalRateReturnStats Coverage
Backtest (2089d)2848/625146% [44%-47%]+220.1%Longs only
Out of Sample (1437d)310/67246% [42%-50%]+41.6%Longs only
Recent (7d)1/333% [6%-79%]-11.4%Longs only
OOS Sharpe0.09 (annualized, trade-level)Longs only

Refresh prices

Prices update on demand. Run this command on the host that owns the FIIJ repo — it fetches live prices, writes the sidecar JSON, and pushes to git. Vercel rebuilds and the dashboard shows the new prices after a reload (~30s).

fiij refresh-prices

Behind the scenes: same code path the (now-disabled) cron called. Symbols are read from this dashboard's HTML; equity + commodity fetch via MarketDataFetcher, crypto via CryptoDataFetcher; output lands at briefs/dashboards/risk_dashboard_<date>_prices.json.